Same as it’s always been (for the last eight days). We’ll be in here at 3 PM EST, discussing the second Champions League semifinal. Lyon, per FiveThirtyEight’s predictive model, have an 18-percent chance of winning this match. Your stat-o-the-day: Only three teams in Europe’s Big Five leagues allowed fewer expected goals per game than Lyon this season, while only one team has created more xG per game than Bayern Munich. See you in about an hour.
I don't think there are many players, in the world, who can kick a ball harder with their left foot than Serge Gnabry and Leroy Sane. They'll, uh, be on the same team next season.
Outside of the first 15-20 minutes, that was not particularly close. Hopefully those two semis were penance paid for prime-time final. My early lean is toward PSG -- look at that xG number for Lyon -- but I'm gonna have to dig into it a bit more before giving my OFFICIAL prediction. Thanks for following along as always. We'll do it on Sunday, too. Also, if you're a premium subscriber, be sure to send in your questions for the next mailbag! See y'all soon.
One more pre-game nugget, using Stats Perform's data:
-For Bayern against Barca, their possessions that led shots lasted on average for 10.4 seconds and 3.4 passes. For Lyon against City: 1.3 seconds and 0.6 passes.
Transitive property: Bayern Munich are three goals better than Lyon, who are two goals better than Manchester City, who are therefore one goal better than Barcelona.
OK, since this half is a wash: Lyon creating a couple opportunities but Bayern effectively possessing in their own half and sucking the life out of the game. Given the score and the, I guess, "respect" being shown to them does this mean that Lyon are better than Barcelona?
They are clearly better managed and more cohesive, because you don't get routed 8-2 at this level without a psychological collapse. But I wouldn't favor them in a one off match because I'd still expect Barca to score first and score more, and therefore not collapse, if that makes any sense.
I've got a nagging PSG feeling. Neymar has been saving his goals for a special occasion...I feel like it depends on how economical PSG are in front of goal. Bayern favs. Maybe 3-2 or 2-1 Bayern.
"Bayern surely cannot lose from two goals up" is bold-talk from Peter Drury. It's like he 1) hasn't watched Bayern's defense, and 2) hasn't watched Champions League soccer over the past 10 years.
I feel with Muller he's teh type of guy who after training dutifully completes and submits the rest of his players taxes like Andy Dufresne in Shawshank Redemption.
Are we all cheering for Bayern to set up the dream final or are we still cheering for the upset? Kind of annoyed we’re not watching City-Bayern right now.
At the end of the day, I control the means of production. It's been hard enough trying to teach him how to record his own audio. No chance he ever figures out all the other steps.
Who's better Liverpool, Bayern or PSG? This may seem redundant being that Liverpool are out but there's a reason FIFA are creating the Club World Cup in China. Because these questions need to be answered with even more football.
If we assume that their attacking forces are a wash, both the eye-test and the xGA suggest that PSG were a slightly better team defensively throught the year. So PSG should be a slight favorite.
If they play deeper, I'm curious if that allows Neymar to find those pockets of space between the midfield and defense. PSG have lots of ways to beat you with that front three.
It'll be interesting to see if they go back to their previous back 4 with Pavard at RB (Kimmich next to Thiago) that turned into a back 3 as Davies bombed forward. I don't think they played quite as high in that set up as they have the past few matches.
Assuming Bayern see this out without much drama, how does everyone here feel about the one-leg v two leg approach? UEFA would never give up the TV revenue of the extra games but a part of me feels like they're more interesting and we got a bit lucky to have a few good quarterfinals to spice things up. Just feels like it'd be more fum if Lyon could nab an away goal
Single-leg is fun because it basically ensures an interesting "second-leg" game. But I like two-legs better because away goals gives the only scenario where a team can go from losing to winning without drawing first.
I keep going back and forth on it. One game samples can lead to more fun upsets, but some of the most memorable matches in recent years were second legs in the Champions League, and that's a more fair way to decide a champion. I'm not sure which style is better for the sport, but like you said, there's no chance UEFA considers changing the format anyway
Looking forward and assuming Bayern sees this out:
How does Bayern tactically contain Mbappe/Neymar when PSG have the ball? Memphis/Ekambi are a problem, and I think that PSG's attack is quite a bit better.
Think it really depends on who you think is better suited to a change in style: Bayern or PSG? I don't think either team is really built to stop the other team's strengths. PSG do seem a little more flexible to me -- or at least, they're able to dominate a game through different kinds of levers of control. If you gave Bayern the same balance of chances from today's match against PSG on Sunday, they'd absolutely take it and run.
As ridiculous as it is to think with this Bayern team, a more conservative and patient approach would likely be in their favor. The sort of pace they are playing with today would be suicidal vs PSG imo. We saw it yesterday.
i wonder why no big English club has tried to grab him? if he has no interest then so be it, but id think that Chelsea and United could definitely use him.
I don't think there are many players, in the world, who can kick a ball harder with their left foot than Serge Gnabry and Leroy Sane. They'll, uh, be on the same team next season.
Bayern's scouting reports: "Basically Arjen Robben - check"
Crikey I forgot about Sane...What's weird to me is Boateng is still there. Weren't they willing to drive him to whomever was willing to pay recently?
WTFFFFFFFF
Kicking a Soccer Ball Is Hard, Champions League Semifinal Edition, Version 3.0
Bayern are gonna be tough to beat if teams keep missing breakaways against them.
FT Update:
xG: 3.4 Bayern, Lyon 1.65
Shots (OT): 19 (8) Bayern, 9 (3) Lyon
Final-third passes: 87 Bayern, 52 Lyon
Penalty-area passes: 16 Bayern, Lyon 5
Outside of the first 15-20 minutes, that was not particularly close. Hopefully those two semis were penance paid for prime-time final. My early lean is toward PSG -- look at that xG number for Lyon -- but I'm gonna have to dig into it a bit more before giving my OFFICIAL prediction. Thanks for following along as always. We'll do it on Sunday, too. Also, if you're a premium subscriber, be sure to send in your questions for the next mailbag! See y'all soon.
Not great from the Lyon midfield there; Aouar especially. But woof. What a goal.
aouar looked like antonio cromartie trying to tackle a rb right there
Truly elite tackle by Thiago Mendes. It's not easy to get your cleat caught on an opponent's shoulder blade.
Coutinho Tatis Jr.
Lyon's first Ligue 1 Uber Eats (lol) match is in 9 days against Dijon
HT Update:
xG: 2.81 Bayern, 1.01 Lyon
Shots (OT): Bayern 12 (6), Lyon 4 (0)
Final-third passes: Bayern 34, Lyon 23
Penalty-area passes: Bayern 8, Lyon 1
Serge Gnabry has entered the chat.
More like Serjen Gnobben
Caqueret's hair is straight out of the 1930's. Love it.
looking like hes trying to be in perry mason s2
One more pre-game nugget, using Stats Perform's data:
-For Bayern against Barca, their possessions that led shots lasted on average for 10.4 seconds and 3.4 passes. For Lyon against City: 1.3 seconds and 0.6 passes.
this nugget already having a moment in that depay miss
Mueller, again reading the space to block that Goretzka shot
I don't care who wins this match as long as the winner prevents the human rights abuser from winning the CL
and this team is adding sane next season, europe is fucked
Goretzka truthers hive stand up!!!
Transitive property: Bayern Munich are three goals better than Lyon, who are two goals better than Manchester City, who are therefore one goal better than Barcelona.
Spurs are also one goal better than Barca, so spurs = City?
OK, since this half is a wash: Lyon creating a couple opportunities but Bayern effectively possessing in their own half and sucking the life out of the game. Given the score and the, I guess, "respect" being shown to them does this mean that Lyon are better than Barcelona?
Does "less ridiculously volatile" mean "better"? It might!
The thing with Lyon is they like move around and stuff. That could be enough to beat The Ghosts of Barcelona.
They are clearly better managed and more cohesive, because you don't get routed 8-2 at this level without a psychological collapse. But I wouldn't favor them in a one off match because I'd still expect Barca to score first and score more, and therefore not collapse, if that makes any sense.
Who's your early pick in PSG-Bayern? And why? (And yes, let's hope this is a jinx.)
I would rather see football vanish from the face of this planet before I see a team backed by Qatar win CL
we get it
We get it, you cape for human rights abuses
Ben. You also cape for human right abuses by typing this message.
Cape for this 🖕🏿🖕🏿🖕🏿
PSG 3 - Bayern 2. Think Mbappe shreds the Bayern back line.
Ekambi could have 2/3 tonight. Mbappe could go for 4
Thinking the same. Mbappe brace
Bayern because of what they did to Chelsea, Barcelona, and Lyon in successive rounds. Also because they haven’t lose in about 43 years.
rooting for neymar, mbappe, and di maria. but i think bayern will win.
simply: i think bayern's attack is better organized. bayern might have the better keeper if navas isnt able to go.
I've got a nagging PSG feeling. Neymar has been saving his goals for a special occasion...I feel like it depends on how economical PSG are in front of goal. Bayern favs. Maybe 3-2 or 2-1 Bayern.
PSG. I trust their defense to hold up slightly more than Bayern's.
"Bayern surely cannot lose from two goals up" is bold-talk from Peter Drury. It's like he 1) hasn't watched Bayern's defense, and 2) hasn't watched Champions League soccer over the past 10 years.
(He was talking generally, not about this specific game.)
Lyon still don't have a shot on target ...
What's their xG?
but can he do it on a wet, windy night at the Hawthorns?
Goretzka hunting his own teammates is a fun new wrinkle
That -- and Coutinho's assault on every per-90 statistic there is -- are the only things keeping me from falling asleep.
So which mediocre team is going to get the heavily subsidized punt on Coutinho next year? What if it was Liverpool?
Smart money is with the team that is not-so-secretly run by his agent/manager.
Well damn, that is extremely boring.
I just moved from Chicago to Vancouver and Alphonso Davies is going to be my side piece to Christian Pulisic's main squeeze
I feel with Muller he's teh type of guy who after training dutifully completes and submits the rest of his players taxes like Andy Dufresne in Shawshank Redemption.
Soccer players don't do their taxes. We know this by now.
Good to see the City "miss a chance, give up a goal" disease is contagious
Hopefully not airborne
I don't know if it's the frenzied Spanish commentary i'm listening to, but this is really fun.
watched every match since restart on univison b/c i dont want to download cbs all access and have no regrets
With the spanish commentary and the way the game is going, this feels like Mexico v Germany 2018
Are we all cheering for Bayern to set up the dream final or are we still cheering for the upset? Kind of annoyed we’re not watching City-Bayern right now.
Remember, all you need to do is eat your dessert before your dinner and you too can be like Robert Lewandowski
When's the next podcast coming out Ryan?
Recording tonight, should be up some time tomorrow.
On a scale of 1-10
How worried are you about Fufi going rogue and usurping your throne as the host of the world's leading soccer Podcast?
At the end of the day, I control the means of production. It's been hard enough trying to teach him how to record his own audio. No chance he ever figures out all the other steps.
need Yung Fufi's Inter analysis
shambolic defending
They’re shook now... too bad I was hoping for a French finale
still rooting for lyon though
A friendly reminder that Gnabry was let go by Arsenal for peanuts
I don't think he was "let go" tbf. Dude kinda forced his way out.
Arjen Robben has entered the chat
I just found out over Twitter that Davies's is dating Jordan Huitema who plays for PSG and will against Arsenal on Saturday
Who's better Liverpool, Bayern or PSG? This may seem redundant being that Liverpool are out but there's a reason FIFA are creating the Club World Cup in China. Because these questions need to be answered with even more football.
4 shots, 3 on target, 2 goals. Decent night.
If we assume that their attacking forces are a wash, both the eye-test and the xGA suggest that PSG were a slightly better team defensively throught the year. So PSG should be a slight favorite.
is Navas gonna be available for the final? idk much about their back up keeper Rico but i dont think hes better than Navas
Of course the lack of depth in the French league definitely contributes to this
I think Lyon are pretty lucky that Lewy has decided to abstain from scoring this game.
Surely Bayern will play much deeper in the final.
Maybe! But also, we haven't really seen them do that much this season, if at all.
If they play deeper, I'm curious if that allows Neymar to find those pockets of space between the midfield and defense. PSG have lots of ways to beat you with that front three.
It'll be interesting to see if they go back to their previous back 4 with Pavard at RB (Kimmich next to Thiago) that turned into a back 3 as Davies bombed forward. I don't think they played quite as high in that set up as they have the past few matches.
The Boateng-Alaba pairing seems like a disaster waiting to happen. Curious if they start Hernandez just for the upside.
Bayern COULD, at any point, just play the backline they paid upwards of 100m for.
can't wait for depay's bayern munich diss track after they lose
Is Marco Verratti out of the final?
He came off the bench yesterday, so I assume he'd be fine
i don't think so
Assuming Bayern see this out without much drama, how does everyone here feel about the one-leg v two leg approach? UEFA would never give up the TV revenue of the extra games but a part of me feels like they're more interesting and we got a bit lucky to have a few good quarterfinals to spice things up. Just feels like it'd be more fum if Lyon could nab an away goal
These games have been fun, but they don't compare to last season. Two legs -- plus the power-boost of the away goal -- is still the best, imo.
one leg seemed cool at first with the upsets but now its feeling a little sparse. think europa should be single leg though.
Though for Man City it doesn't matter. Either way it ends with Pep on his knees screaming at the night sky.
Oh for sure, I'm not actually sure changing it to 2 legs this year changes any of the results honestly...
Single-leg is fun because it basically ensures an interesting "second-leg" game. But I like two-legs better because away goals gives the only scenario where a team can go from losing to winning without drawing first.
I keep going back and forth on it. One game samples can lead to more fun upsets, but some of the most memorable matches in recent years were second legs in the Champions League, and that's a more fair way to decide a champion. I'm not sure which style is better for the sport, but like you said, there's no chance UEFA considers changing the format anyway
Give me two legs.
Ditto. I'm still a two-legger
fun*
i'm so scared of bayern in the final
Looking forward and assuming Bayern sees this out:
How does Bayern tactically contain Mbappe/Neymar when PSG have the ball? Memphis/Ekambi are a problem, and I think that PSG's attack is quite a bit better.
Think it really depends on who you think is better suited to a change in style: Bayern or PSG? I don't think either team is really built to stop the other team's strengths. PSG do seem a little more flexible to me -- or at least, they're able to dominate a game through different kinds of levers of control. If you gave Bayern the same balance of chances from today's match against PSG on Sunday, they'd absolutely take it and run.
I would assume they don't and aim to win 4-3
I would think Bayern would have to boss midfield and possession to limit the opportunities for those two.
But in heavy possession don't you see PSG turning and burning on the counter? Boateng is still super skilled, but fast he is not
As ridiculous as it is to think with this Bayern team, a more conservative and patient approach would likely be in their favor. The sort of pace they are playing with today would be suicidal vs PSG imo. We saw it yesterday.
aouar 2nd half masterclass incoming
at least goretzka still goretzkaing
Appraently Alaba really wants go to Barcelona. Why?
Maybe he wants to get wildly overpaid in his mid-thirties
i wonder why no big English club has tried to grab him? if he has no interest then so be it, but id think that Chelsea and United could definitely use him.
Contract expires 2021, and he'd be 30. Bayern don't like extending players after 30. Barca do.
We'll call it the Alaba Alba Pension Plan
Lewa...missed...a clear chance?
It's like last season all over again.