Per Stats Perform, Aston Villa — YES, ASTON FREAKIN VILLA — have the best expected-goal differential (per 90 minutes) in the league right now. They’re at plus-0.91. Second? It’s Chelsea at plus-0.82. Villa do it with the league’s second-best attack (by xG) and third-best defense, while Chelsea’s defense is tops in the Prem, and their attack sits fourth. In terms of chance creation and suppression, these are the two most balanced teams in the league; no one else ranks in the top four on both sides of the ball.
Now, the side of the ball to focus on here is, shockingly, Villa’s attack vs. Chelsea’s defense. Despite all the money thrown at attackers over the past two years, Frank Lampard’s team has allowed a league-low 0.09 xG per shot along with a stingy 9.67 shots per game (fourth-best in the league). Villa, meanwhile, LEAD THE LEAGUE in shots per game (16.5) AND passes into the penalty area per game (18.31). On top of that, their average possession moves up the field at 1.68 meters per second, which makes them the second-fastest attack in the UK. This is not supposed to happen! Despite lightning-quick possessions and just a general lack of overall possession — barely over 50 percent — they’re third in the league in share of final-third passes per match behind City and Liverpool, while also, you know, out-shooting the last two title-winners and moving the ball into the box more often, too. So, why the rise from shoulda-been-relegated to, uh, world-class attacking team? It’s the Calf God. Per the DAVIES model, Jack Grealish has been worth a league-best 6.07 goals above average this year — nearly double any of his teammates.
As for Chelsea? Stop worrying about Timo Werner. He’s only scored four goals so far, but he’s been worth 5.6 goals above average according to DAVIES — the third-best mark in the league. Despite the sparkling underlying numbers, they’ve lost three of their last four. Less Timo — on the bench today — is not the solution.
-Shots (on target): Chelsea 16 (5), Aston Villa 10 (2)
-xG: Chelsea 1.82, Villa 0.71
-Final-third passes: Chelsea 112, Villa 65
-Penalty-area passes: Chelsea 12, Villa 11
The NBC announcers seem to think that Villa "were the better team". Perhaps the xG overplays it a bit -- they both spent some time in the opposition penalty area -- but Chelsea should've won this game! Chelsea have edged the xG in the past four matches ... and they've only won one. I'm no huge Lampard fan, but his team is getting bitten by the finishing bug -- on both sides -- match after match. It maybe seems worse than it is because so much of their attack play is based on either A) crosses, or B) super-talented players doing things that super-talented players do. But: Chelsea have a ton of super-talented players, and in a lot of these games, that should've been enough.
Metaphorical Ham Cut in the Shape of Jack Grealish's Leg: Anwar El Ghazi. Four goals in his last four matches; he led Villa in shots and chances created. He also got an up-close-and-personal view of Olivier Giroud's spray-tanned face for an extended period of time. Some may be jealous; others may feel bad for him. Either way: a laudable achievement.
That's it for today! Lotta fun. See you again tomorrow!
I would pay so much to read 1000 words from Lampard about what he thinks Havertz’s best position is & what he actually wants him to do. Come to think of it, I bet so would Havertz
So, Lampard signs a speedy striker, and the next great German Raumdeuter, and says he has a plan for both. Yet the only tactics this year have been “get it to the fullbacks, cross, and pray” with or without those players. Is there any other sort of tactic going on here I’m missing?
Advanced analytics question: Why don't people just kick Jack Grealish really hard in his exposed shin. Am I missing something? Surely each team has at least one player on the bench with a sense of moral relativism that would allow for it?
It feels like pulisic is hesitating when he has a chance to beat someone in the box. When he was killing it this summer he seemed to be super decisive and defenders couldn’t handle it
Does Aston Villa have the potential to consistently finish in the top seven for seasons to come or will it be tough to sustain their current level of play?
Should we be considering Chelsea's defenders "mid-table" and thus Lamp's ability to get the top defense out of them a real success? If so, wouldn't that be much more valuable to true mid-table side than for the only club that had liquid cash the past window? If not (i.e., the defenders really are world-class) than has Lamps offered Chelsea anything?
What do we make of the reporting that Werner's shooting technique is off-kilter and that he basically doesn't aim? Given his history of scoring plenty of goals it seems like a non problem, but it's also not the kind of thing you hear very often from serious journalists. Or does aiming actually not matter and players are just trying to hit it hard at a random number generator that sometimes spits out goals? https://www.theguardian.com/football/2020/dec/25/chelsea-best-timo-werner-frank-lampard
How good is Kante actually? Or is he more one of those players people say is incredible because that's just what everyone says, and as a litmus test to show they can judge a player based on more than goals and assists? I haven't watched him enough to be able to tell.
Ryan, any thoughts on my sense that there don’t seem to be a lot of proper strikers coming through the pipeline in England? Was thinking about potential Vardy replacements and haven’t seen/read about many options (would love a Leicester chat at some point)
Is Tottenham Hotspur a club that will still challenge for a place within the top four or will their finances hold them back to where their mainly challenging between 5th and 8th place?
How many attackers getting good xG numbers but not actually finishing is too many? Asking for a friend. Also, does it matter if you also have Giroud doing the near opposite?
How far would Villa have to finish down the table for Grealish not to be one of the favourites for player of the season? He has to be the a top three contender at this point right?
Let's Chat Chelsea–Villa!
FT Stat Update:
-Shots (on target): Chelsea 16 (5), Aston Villa 10 (2)
-xG: Chelsea 1.82, Villa 0.71
-Final-third passes: Chelsea 112, Villa 65
-Penalty-area passes: Chelsea 12, Villa 11
The NBC announcers seem to think that Villa "were the better team". Perhaps the xG overplays it a bit -- they both spent some time in the opposition penalty area -- but Chelsea should've won this game! Chelsea have edged the xG in the past four matches ... and they've only won one. I'm no huge Lampard fan, but his team is getting bitten by the finishing bug -- on both sides -- match after match. It maybe seems worse than it is because so much of their attack play is based on either A) crosses, or B) super-talented players doing things that super-talented players do. But: Chelsea have a ton of super-talented players, and in a lot of these games, that should've been enough.
Metaphorical Ham Cut in the Shape of Jack Grealish's Leg: Anwar El Ghazi. Four goals in his last four matches; he led Villa in shots and chances created. He also got an up-close-and-personal view of Olivier Giroud's spray-tanned face for an extended period of time. Some may be jealous; others may feel bad for him. Either way: a laudable achievement.
That's it for today! Lotta fun. See you again tomorrow!
Aston Villa don't respect the game. Also: Kante just hanging behind El Ghazi on that cross. Not great!
Hello, friends! Despite everything you just read: Villa are playing the same exact lineup they played two days ago. We'll see how that goes.
YOU TRY TO INJURE GREALISH AND YOU DIE, PATRICK
Lampard: "The players have to take responsibility. At half time I told them NOT to concede"
I would pay so much to read 1000 words from Lampard about what he thinks Havertz’s best position is & what he actually wants him to do. Come to think of it, I bet so would Havertz
El Ghazi is the new Ryan Giggs.
Chelsea fans: It seems like you guys ... hate most of your players? Does anyone other than Kante have a near-universal approval rating?
Pulisic hockey assist king!
Will Grealish's performances decline in the winter due to his refusal to de-expose his calves?
So Pulisic gets his first 90 minutes in what feels like forever, then starts 48 hours later. What could go wrong?
recklessly bet on chelsea -.5 for sake of thread
Bearded Pulisic can't finish. I'm certain the stats back this up
So, Lampard signs a speedy striker, and the next great German Raumdeuter, and says he has a plan for both. Yet the only tactics this year have been “get it to the fullbacks, cross, and pray” with or without those players. Is there any other sort of tactic going on here I’m missing?
Who deserves the ham today? I don't know who deserves the ham today.
Cursed tweet: https://twitter.com/USMNT/status/1343623812164816897
HT Stat Update:
-Shots (on target): Chelsea 7 (2), Villa 6 (1)
-xG, per Stats Perform: Chelsea 1.46, Villa 0.28
-Final-third passes: Chelsea 48, Villa 32
-Penalty-area passes: Chelsea 5, Villa 3
That confused lampard look epitomizes his management style
calvin and i both losing our "dueling" bets was always the inevitable outcome
Cant believe none of you took Grealish on your Ballon d'Or pod
You can tell Grealish is a real Leader In The Clubhouse because all the Villa players are following his short-shorts lead
That pass from CHO across to Pulisic was absurd
Advanced analytics question: Why don't people just kick Jack Grealish really hard in his exposed shin. Am I missing something? Surely each team has at least one player on the bench with a sense of moral relativism that would allow for it?
Looking at Chelsea’s bench... my god they should be better than they are
Will COVID do what the FA won't and give the Premier League a winter break?
Is there an easier PL player to dribble past than Jorginho?
It feels like pulisic is hesitating when he has a chance to beat someone in the box. When he was killing it this summer he seemed to be super decisive and defenders couldn’t handle it
Does Aston Villa have the potential to consistently finish in the top seven for seasons to come or will it be tough to sustain their current level of play?
Should we be considering Chelsea's defenders "mid-table" and thus Lamp's ability to get the top defense out of them a real success? If so, wouldn't that be much more valuable to true mid-table side than for the only club that had liquid cash the past window? If not (i.e., the defenders really are world-class) than has Lamps offered Chelsea anything?
If Lampard gets sacked (never want to talk about another man’s job), who would be the replacement? Would Favre or Nagelsman be serious candidates?
What do we make of the reporting that Werner's shooting technique is off-kilter and that he basically doesn't aim? Given his history of scoring plenty of goals it seems like a non problem, but it's also not the kind of thing you hear very often from serious journalists. Or does aiming actually not matter and players are just trying to hit it hard at a random number generator that sometimes spits out goals? https://www.theguardian.com/football/2020/dec/25/chelsea-best-timo-werner-frank-lampard
How good is Kante actually? Or is he more one of those players people say is incredible because that's just what everyone says, and as a litmus test to show they can judge a player based on more than goals and assists? I haven't watched him enough to be able to tell.
Ryan, any thoughts on my sense that there don’t seem to be a lot of proper strikers coming through the pipeline in England? Was thinking about potential Vardy replacements and haven’t seen/read about many options (would love a Leicester chat at some point)
Is Tottenham Hotspur a club that will still challenge for a place within the top four or will their finances hold them back to where their mainly challenging between 5th and 8th place?
Shocking from Kante for the equaliser.
Christensen down injured hear the half-way line. Azpi shuffles across to cover in the middle.
What does Kante do?
Half-heartedly press a guy who already had two guys on him...then fail to track the run of El-Ghazi, leaving him all alone on the back stick.
Won’t get to participate Wednesday so I’m going to ask now. How many starting Prem midfields would Curtis Jones get into right now?
2 N’Golo Kante shots in like 2 minutes. Interesting approach from Frank...lol
How many attackers getting good xG numbers but not actually finishing is too many? Asking for a friend. Also, does it matter if you also have Giroud doing the near opposite?
a jorginho blunder in his own penalty area feels imminent
Not sure about this Villa tactic of leaving Chillwell in acres of space just outside of the box
Since everyone is having substack sales, which ones do you recommend?
How far would Villa have to finish down the table for Grealish not to be one of the favourites for player of the season? He has to be the a top three contender at this point right?
It feels like heresy to even mention, but is Kanté showing signs of being washed?