It’s Day Two, and boy. This is … not one of the games of the season! Fifteenth vs. 16th! Feel the excitement, baby.
Despite, uh, just two wins from 15 games, Brighton have the fifth-best expected-goal differential in the league (per Stats Perform). Their attack is right around league-average (ninth in xG), but they’ve allowed the third-fewest xG in the league behind Chelsea and Manchester City. So, why the impressive performances but poor results? Mainly: terrible goalkeeping! Per FBRef’s Statsbomb data, Matthew Ryan has allowed the joint-most goals below average (3.2, tied with Rui Patricio of Wolves) in the league so far this season. However, Ryan’s been dropped for 23-year-old Robert Sanchez, and Brighton have drawn the last three games with the young Spaniard in net. If all else remains equal and Sanchez just makes the average saves you’d expect a keeper to make, then Brighton should start to rise up the table.
As for Arsenal, they’re worse than Brighton, but higher in the table, but nowhere near where they want to be, but also probably not quite as bad as they seem. The Gunners rank 11th in xGD, with the 12th-best attack and ninth-best defense. It’s all so meh. In a way, Graham Potter’s team is what Mikel Arteta wishes his could be — save for the results. The average possession for both sides lasts longer than league-average, and they both move the ball up the field at the exact same speed: 1.13 meters per second — slower than every team in the league other than Southampton. In other words, both teams are trying to use possession as a defensive tactic, but Brighton are the only ones doing it effectively — again, save for the results.
I know they have a lot of things to worry about, but one other thing I'd be worried about, if I worked for Arsenal: Thomas Partey left Atletico Madrid, and now Atletico Madrid are the favorites to win La Liga.
-Shots (on target): Brighton 13 (2), Arsenal 11 (3)
-xG: Brighton 0.89, Arsenal 1.27
-Final-third passes: Brighton 92, Arsenal 66
-Penalty-area passes: Brighton 11, Arsenal 5
Pretty even game. Pretty awful game. Brighton controlled things in the first half. Brighton lost control in the first half. Frankly, the difference in this match -- beyond who finished and who didn't -- is that one team had Bukayo Saka, and the other team didn't. Saka created three chances, including the winner, worth 0.75 xG. No one else in the league has registered more than 0.44 so far this Matchweek. None of it came within some kind of special tactical structure, either; no, it was just him making fools out of the Brihgton backline. Did we mention that the kid is only 19? He's a bonafide star.
Metaphorical Spanish Ham Recipient: Bukayo Saka, obviously. He went off injured. Hopefully it's not serious, but if it is, these real-or-imagined hams are massive, so the Jamón Serrano should last him a while as he convalesces. Who knows, maybe it even has some curative properties. Get well soon, Bukayo.
Thanks for participating today, all. Loved the managers-as-politicians chat, especially. Talk to you tomorrow.
Per the DAVIES model: Bukayo Saka is Arsenal's best player, worth 2.46 goals more than average. Except, that makes him just the 45th-best player in the league this season. Arsenal aren't THAT bad; you'd expect them to have at least a player or two who ranked a lot higher than that. What does that mean? Right now, Arsenal have a balanced team of players who don't really add much value but also don't take a ton of value away.
I was thinking about the pragmatism convo w/r/t to football managers and how it ports pretty directly into politics, too. Not sure I wanna go down this road, but if Bielsa is Bernie Sanders -- sticks to his principles, finally experiencing some mainstream success -- then, uh, who is Big Sam? Klopp? Pep? Mikel Arteta? Etc.
Is the festive period akin to Thursday Night Football in the nfl? Outside of the famous City-Liverpool match, it seems like the quality of these games is never very high, especially towards the end
Should we, uh, consider switching to another game at halftime? Also, as I said yesterday, please feel free to ask questions that have nothing to do with the game we're watching.
Dan Burn is such a weird player. His height should make him a pure center back but he likes to maraud a bit more than you’d expect and he’s not terrible
Battle of the under-performing-but-still-not-good-teams! Arteta keeping in Smith-Rowe and Martinelli, excited to see the young guys. Maybe they can add some xfun.
Has anyone got the numbers on lineup turnover for all the PL teams? Off the top of my head I'd imagine Brighton are higher up in terms of variance in starting xi but I'm probably wrong.
Arsenal fans, just superimpose Welbz head onto Fredo in that gif with Michael now, as it'll save you time later. "Welbz, you broke my heart. You broke my heart."
Let's Chat Brighton–Arsenal!
Has there ever been a good soccer game? I've never seen one.
Pretty good 20 minutes from Arsenal this half. Saka is the best player on the team ... by a wide margin.
LMAO I just saw the Leeds score.
Love to see MacAllister taking advantage of the 3v3 from a turnover by ... bombing a shot into the stands from outside the penalty area.
I know they have a lot of things to worry about, but one other thing I'd be worried about, if I worked for Arsenal: Thomas Partey left Atletico Madrid, and now Atletico Madrid are the favorites to win La Liga.
He hasn't mentioned it on air, I don't think, but Fufi is a huge Alexis MacAllister fan.
FT Stat Update:
-Shots (on target): Brighton 13 (2), Arsenal 11 (3)
-xG: Brighton 0.89, Arsenal 1.27
-Final-third passes: Brighton 92, Arsenal 66
-Penalty-area passes: Brighton 11, Arsenal 5
Pretty even game. Pretty awful game. Brighton controlled things in the first half. Brighton lost control in the first half. Frankly, the difference in this match -- beyond who finished and who didn't -- is that one team had Bukayo Saka, and the other team didn't. Saka created three chances, including the winner, worth 0.75 xG. No one else in the league has registered more than 0.44 so far this Matchweek. None of it came within some kind of special tactical structure, either; no, it was just him making fools out of the Brihgton backline. Did we mention that the kid is only 19? He's a bonafide star.
Metaphorical Spanish Ham Recipient: Bukayo Saka, obviously. He went off injured. Hopefully it's not serious, but if it is, these real-or-imagined hams are massive, so the Jamón Serrano should last him a while as he convalesces. Who knows, maybe it even has some curative properties. Get well soon, Bukayo.
Thanks for participating today, all. Loved the managers-as-politicians chat, especially. Talk to you tomorrow.
Not proud of it, but I hate when players wear full-leg leggings under their shorts. Do people still say "OK boomer?"
Per the DAVIES model: Bukayo Saka is Arsenal's best player, worth 2.46 goals more than average. Except, that makes him just the 45th-best player in the league this season. Arsenal aren't THAT bad; you'd expect them to have at least a player or two who ranked a lot higher than that. What does that mean? Right now, Arsenal have a balanced team of players who don't really add much value but also don't take a ton of value away.
I have a probably misguided Leeds and Man U parlay going today so let's rock
I was thinking about the pragmatism convo w/r/t to football managers and how it ports pretty directly into politics, too. Not sure I wanna go down this road, but if Bielsa is Bernie Sanders -- sticks to his principles, finally experiencing some mainstream success -- then, uh, who is Big Sam? Klopp? Pep? Mikel Arteta? Etc.
HT Stat Update:
-Shots (on target): Brighton 8 (1), Arsenal 1 (0)
-xG, per Stats Perform: Brighton 0.95, Arsenal 0.14
-Final-third passes: Brighton 40, Arsenal 33
-Penalty-area passes: Brighton 3, Arsenal 2
Moral of the first 45: Arsenal are still a bad soccer team.
Sick half. Smith rowe got the most sauce on the field. The low socks + the all black cleats = sex
Is the festive period akin to Thursday Night Football in the nfl? Outside of the famous City-Liverpool match, it seems like the quality of these games is never very high, especially towards the end
Should we, uh, consider switching to another game at halftime? Also, as I said yesterday, please feel free to ask questions that have nothing to do with the game we're watching.
Is Maitland-Niles really not good enough to play CM over Xhaka or Elneny?
Dan Burn is such a weird player. His height should make him a pure center back but he likes to maraud a bit more than you’d expect and he’s not terrible
Arsenal look like a team where nobody has any idea when to make a run because they don't know when the ball will move
That was awesome, Bernd Leno....
Arsenal's fullbacks are both committed to looking like complete dweebs with their tucked in shorts.
"tactical masterstroke from Arteta" on the sky broadcast. IDK about that one, boss
Is Bellerin...good? His tuck game is strong, but whenever I watch him I keep expecting to see a better player - like the Walcott of RBs
Which happens first: Arsenal wins the Prem or the USMNT wins the World Cup?
Should Potter be in the mix for big jobs?
auba works noticeably worse with the young guns, than lacazette. can't link up with them at all
Battle of the under-performing-but-still-not-good-teams! Arteta keeping in Smith-Rowe and Martinelli, excited to see the young guys. Maybe they can add some xfun.
Has there been any work done to quantify the value/impact of managers on teams? Feels like a space a with a lot of opinions but not that much data
Saka making Dan burn look like a fool
From open play?!?
Is it time to start betting the under in games selected for the chat? People are asking....
Is Mourinho Pelosi or McConnell?
A chance!
How legit/not legit is Jack Harrison?
Has 4-2-3-1 officially became the formation of the "I have no ideas, just roll the ball out there and play" manager?
Bellerin ducking on that cross is the weirdest thing I’ve seen in awhile and somehow it worked out
Banger from Alioski
Atkinson really has the vibe of an old grumpy guy out for a jog
Do you rate Yves Bissouma? If so, what big clubs should be trying to buy him?
Over-under 3 more postponed PL games before February?
I dig these Arsenal kits, the Villa kits from yesterday (Kappa branding is classic) and the West Ham third/Funeral Fit kit.
Any other favorites from this season’s crops for y’all?
Has anyone got the numbers on lineup turnover for all the PL teams? Off the top of my head I'd imagine Brighton are higher up in terms of variance in starting xi but I'm probably wrong.
What did West Brom just do? Where was that against Liverpool?
Brighton playing with no out-and-out forwards? Mac Allister is a mid, and Jahanbakhsh primarily a mid/sometime winger
Can someone please explain the rationale behind the delayed offside flag? Why?
Hasenhuttl out here live from prison
Any MLS teams bid for Messi yet? :)
Brighton seemed so fun at the start (we did a chat for Everton-Brighton, if I recall correctly).
Arsenal fans, just superimpose Welbz head onto Fredo in that gif with Michael now, as it'll save you time later. "Welbz, you broke my heart. You broke my heart."
In other news what is this leeds backline??