The Perfect Pitcher
Last week we looked at some of the characteristics of 2020’s most surprising pitching success stories. Those are pitchers who cost $5 or less in rotisserie auctions like LABR and Tout Wars and earned big profits. These are the types of pitchers who help a team win a title.
The profile of last year’s starters was 26-28 years old, without big earnings in his major league past but also without big losses. That latter point has to be squishy, especially because last year’s short season exaggerated the good and the bad to an extent. But with that in mind, and with the humble caveat that the reason these guys will be cheap is that no one has confidence in them, here are a few who caught my eye:
Jonathan Loaisiga, Yankees: He throws hard and his curve gets plenty of swing and miss. He hasn’t had any success so far and missed much of 2019 with rotator cuff issues, plus he’s expected to work in relief, all good reasons he should be no more than a dollar or two in AL-only auctions. The physical talent is there, can health, opportunity, and the mental part come together?
Daulton Jefferies, Athletics: He made one appearance last year and got creamed. He’s not a sexy prospect, more of a control/finesse type, but he’s good at that control thing and because of the short season spent mostly in the alternative site he is still pitching his way back from TJ. Hasn’t pitched in Triple-A yet, so he’ll likely start the year there. That makes him an attractive late reserve pick or $1 endgame buy if that’s allowed (beat the reserve round crush).
Carlos Rodon, White Sox: He was a No. 3 overall pick many moons ago and has been pitching in the majors since 2015, but shoulder and back problems have dragged him down and for all I know may do so again. But the White Sox seem to think he’s healthy, or are at least willing to give him a shot. He wasn’t as bad as that ERA looks in limited time in 2019. Cross your fingers.
Cal Quantrill, Indians: After being picked No. 8 overall in 2016 he was soon appearing on prospect lists, but it hasn’t worked out that way for him. He still throws hard and like Loaisiga is in a spot where his undefined role is going to discourage speculation, but he’s now on a team with a good record of developing pitchers. That makes him of interest to me for cheap.
Joey Lucchesi, Mets: He showed solid development in 2019 but he’s struggled to add a third pitch. He didn’t pitch well last year when he had the chance, either, but now has some chance to join the Mets rotation. If he does his price is going to jump, but if he’s beaten out in spring training he becomes a worthy addition to this list on the off chance that he can make his cutter work.
JT Brubaker, Pirates: It seems like he should make the rotation this year, which on a better team might bump his price, but who wants to invest in Pirates? There’s nothing sexy about his pedigree, but he pounds the bottom of the strike zone with a sinker/slider combo, gets plenty of ground balls, and some swing and miss. Worth a few bucks.
Luke Weaver, Diamondbacks: He could slip over the $5 threshold because some may remember that he was okay in 2019 and forget that his season essentially ended in May with a flexor and UCL strain. They would have to overlook just how ineffective he was last year, or decide if he was so hittable because of bad luck or because he physically wasn’t capable. Such decisions can lead to a $4 pitcher who might be capable of a solid season.
Mixed league players can speculate on these guys, too. If they work out they’ll likely have mixed league value, but mixed leaguers have a much richer endgame crew, too. The beauty of fliers like these is that the investment is low, the potential rewards solid, and no reason not to get out of the way if one of them implodes.
LET’S GO META!
The image is from Corey Sipkin; Getty Images, borrowed for its news value. You know spring training is on when the big story is what number Taijuan Walker is going to wear with the Mets. Well, that should be the big story rather than the bizarre scandal of truth-telling in Seattle.
I’m considering taking the time to put together a print-on-demand/pdf version of the profiles and picks and pans and I hope stats from the last few years, but it is a big undertaking and it’s hard to know how quickly it can be turned around.
The pdf version would be included with the Rotoman Special at pattonandco.com. Print on demand would be in addition, or instead of, maybe $16. If you have an interest in a print version (it would look as much like the Guide as I can make it, no guarantees), please leave a comment.
SOME PROFILES
German Marquez $7 (5x5 Roto NL only)
His home/road splits are the obvious story, as they are at the end of the day with every pitcher who works in Denver. On the road, Marquez allows a .688 OPS, a .294 wOBA, a 3.51 ERA, kind of like facing the 2020 Tommy Edman in every at-bat. At Coors Field, he allows a .802 OPS, a .340 wOBA, a 5.10 ERA, which raises the level of competition to Kyle Lewis's Rookie of the Year performance. The problem is that he's not uniformly awful at home. In 13 starts he had nine quality starts last year. In two of the non-QS games he pitched decently but failed to go six innings. Both of those were on the road. In the other two he was terrible at home, allowing 15 runs in 11 innings against Houston and San Diego in two games, which means in the four other home games he made quality starts. You would hate to miss those, but how can you tell? You can't. Still, pitching is scarce enough someone will take the chance. If it's you you might even make it work out, but before you try consider this phenomenon: Young Rockies starters often defy gravity for a time, offsetting their Coors problem with excellent work on the road. Jon Gray had four fine years before he crashed last year. Kyle Freeland's first two years were fine, and then... Make a modest bet on Marquez's excellent arm, his ability to induce ground balls, and be prepared for damage control at any time. That's the way it is.
ROTOROB PICK: It's always hard to get excited about Colorado hurlers, but Marquez led the NL in innings pitched last season and enjoyed a career-best ERA. However, we believe there's more upside still to come here when you consider his poor strand rate (65.5 percent). Marquez's FIP was nearly a half-run lower than his ERA, so if his fortunes turn as expected, we're talking about a serious rotation asset -- especially if he gets dealt virtually anywhere.
Patrick Corbin, $15
His velocities were down across the board: 1.6 mph on the fastball, 2.5 mph on the slider, 3 mph on the curveball, 3 mph on the change. It makes sense, he's thrown a lot of pitches, he's been durable, and he's at an age when durable starters have to adjust to a shift in their abilities. Or, and we don't generally factor this in, they can fight against the dying of the light and strengthen and condition and recover for a bit. We don't know which way Corbin will go, but the need to adjust for aging pitchers is universal, at least at some point, and he showed signs he was doing just that last summer, throwing his slider more and his sinker less. Still, he was hit harder than ever before and delivered worse results, but what really hurt his fantasy value was an ERA that was about .050 above what it should have been. There is some chance that Corbin could come back, regain his velocity or compensate effectively by changing up his mix, or he could adjust and find new ways to get hitters out, but the danger of further erosion or injury (he's thrown a lot of innings the last three years) suggests caution is best, as it is with most starters.
JD BOLICK PICK: The second season of Patrick Corbin's contract with the Nationals ended up being the second-worst of his career thanks to a strikeout rate that dropped over eight points. The velocity on all his pitches was down across the board, which makes for legitimate concern, yet that alone cannot explain the extraordinary amount of damage that batters did to his fastball. His exit velocities and BABIP ranked among the worst in the league, while batters were also able to make contact with his slider much more frequently. How much his velocity returns will affect the magnitude of a potential recovery, yet even if nothing changes he is unlikely to be as unlucky as he was on balls in play last season.
ROTOROB PICK: Sure, Corbin was horrendous last year, compiling the worst WHIP of any qualified starter. But he also had the highest BABIP in the bigs -- 51 points higher than his career mark. There's no doubt Corbin has regressed in the past two years, but the underlying numbers suggest a bounce-back is coming. Perhaps not to his 2018 level of greatness, but certainly more in line with his 2017 or 2019 seasons.
Michael Conforto $24
His expected batting average was .284, the second-best of his career, last year, which underscores the utter flukiness of his hitting .322. He's established a pretty consistent profile the last few years with solid power and the ability to take a walk a very comfortable lake to wade into. Expect more of that this year and forget the gaudy batting average. Don't go chasing waterfalls.
ROTOROB PAN: Conforto is a talented hitter, but after he paced the game in BABIP, we wouldn't suggest you pay for him as if he's a legitimate .320 hitter. His batting eye regressed, his ISO dipped to a career-low and he had the lowest hard-hit percentage of his career. There are red flags here that indicate Conforto's 2020 was a mirage.
JD BOLICK PAN: When a batter with a career average of .253 over five professional seasons suddenly rockets up to .322, it is natural to expect significant regression. As much as I would like to believe that Conforto genuinely reached a new level of performance, his batting average on balls in play was a ludicrously unsustainable .412, something particularly incongruent with a career-low hard-hit percentage. Given that along with a reduced launch angle, his power numbers this season may be a disappointment as well.
Donovan Solano $9
After a slow start in San Francisco in 2019 he was sent down to Triple-A and wasn't called back until late May, when he went off like a rocket and has just kept going. The career .256 batting average is now up to .282 after the journeyman utility player has hit .330 in his last 397 at-bats. Not bad for a guy who hadn't played in the majors for two years before the Giants signed him. The magic is line drives. In 2019 37.5 percent of his batted balls were liners, and in 2020 he bumped that up to 40.1 percent. In contrast the major league average is 25.7 percent. Solano doesn't hit the ball hard, he doesn't walk much, but he puts the ball in play on the line and that has meant hits. In fact, soft and medium line drives have a higher batting average than hard-hit line drives, Solano is in the sweet spot. Curiously, he was this sort of hitter when he came up in 2012, but something changed the next year he spent in Miami and he remained a ground ball hitter until 2017, which he spent in Triple-A. When he returned to the majors he hit more balls in the air. In 2018, in Triple-A again, he hit .322 and the next year found his way back to the majors. Can he do it again? Why not? But the problem with a relatively empty batting average approach is that a run of bad luck means a player has no value to his big league team, and playing time will be quickly threatened. For fantasy owners, even if he hits .300 (which has been his expected batting average the last two years), it is hard to devote a roster spot to someone who doesn't produce in the other four categories. This relegates him, even when he's going great, to reserve status on most mixed-league rosters. In only leagues, however, he can upgrade a team's batting average all by himself, if he can keep it up.
ROTOROB PAN: One of many Cardinal prospects that hit it big elsewhere, Solano has done nothing but rake since arriving in San Francisco. However, his BABIP has been extremely high over this period (.409 in 2019 and .396 last year), so it's bound to drop, right? Considering he had the lowest hard hit rate of his career last season, we're expecting his BA bubble to burst in 2021, leaving this one-dimensional player without a single Fantasy-worthy trait.
Thanks for reading. Please let me know if you have any comments, questions, or suggestions. Plus if you’d like to see certain players profiled I’d like to hear. Might as well profile those you readers would like to read.
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