The cost curve for genome sequencing (at least generating the data, not analyzing it) fell faster than Moore’s law until 2016, and has basically flatlined since. Not enough credible competition to illumina to force more price cuts.
On the experience curve, cost of bandwidth has dropped consistently over the last 20 years or so. It is possible that it is declining on the back on better fiber optic material or higher density of connections, but may be a thought worth looking at.
Also, I recently picked up the book A Piece of Action by Joseph Nocera... Insightful commentary on the rise of consumer finance in the US.
Airplanes are kind of an example on both sides. Rapid productivity improvement basically stopped with the 747, which came out in the 1960s, as I think Peter thiel pointed out.
Is this an experience curve issue? Or is that at a certain point you hit some natural efficiency limits both in the sound barrier and in the size of the plane (the a380 is bigger but is less efficient in a real life environment, since it’s not easy to fill).
I think it depends on how you look at it though. Planes are still getting more efficient and and pleasant at a faster rate than most other industries and you see this in low airfare growth. Also the average actual trip is faster now because you are more likely to have an available connecting flight and you also have more flights to choose from and so on.
I think if you look at the top speed of a passenger plane you can make the case for stagnation but if you look at the experience of the average passenger (excluding security delays) you see a different story.
The cost curve for genome sequencing (at least generating the data, not analyzing it) fell faster than Moore’s law until 2016, and has basically flatlined since. Not enough credible competition to illumina to force more price cuts.
"What Drives Exponential Improvements" - https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1525/cmr.2013.55.3.134
Argues that learning curves are overrated, and exponential improvement is largely driven by either better materials, or geometric scale effects.
Author apparently has a book as well which I'm deciding if I want to buy https://www.sup.org/books/title/?id=21867
Damn YouTube i think you're a bit too hardcore on the authoritative truth objective
Damn YouTube i think you're a bit too hardcore on the authoritative truth objective
On the experience curve, cost of bandwidth has dropped consistently over the last 20 years or so. It is possible that it is declining on the back on better fiber optic material or higher density of connections, but may be a thought worth looking at.
Also, I recently picked up the book A Piece of Action by Joseph Nocera... Insightful commentary on the rise of consumer finance in the US.
Related thread: https://twitter.com/antonhowes/status/1441165853718945792?s=21
Airplanes are kind of an example on both sides. Rapid productivity improvement basically stopped with the 747, which came out in the 1960s, as I think Peter thiel pointed out.
Is this an experience curve issue? Or is that at a certain point you hit some natural efficiency limits both in the sound barrier and in the size of the plane (the a380 is bigger but is less efficient in a real life environment, since it’s not easy to fill).
I think it depends on how you look at it though. Planes are still getting more efficient and and pleasant at a faster rate than most other industries and you see this in low airfare growth. Also the average actual trip is faster now because you are more likely to have an available connecting flight and you also have more flights to choose from and so on.
I think if you look at the top speed of a passenger plane you can make the case for stagnation but if you look at the experience of the average passenger (excluding security delays) you see a different story.