Re FedEx and network effects, it reminds me of the story of the first telegraph line, which was built by the federal government between DC and Baltimore. There was almost zero demand because it only connected those two cities and Samuel Morse could not persuade Congress that they had to connect more cities (and bigger cities) for it to be useful, and the government gave up on the telegraph. Fortunately by then he was able to persuade private investors to build a telegraph network centered in New York and that was a huge success.
Thanks for the link to the paper on valuing a network. Have you ever explicitly used this formula to help you value a network business? Just curious.
Re FedEx and network effects, it reminds me of the story of the first telegraph line, which was built by the federal government between DC and Baltimore. There was almost zero demand because it only connected those two cities and Samuel Morse could not persuade Congress that they had to connect more cities (and bigger cities) for it to be useful, and the government gave up on the telegraph. Fortunately by then he was able to persuade private investors to build a telegraph network centered in New York and that was a huge success.
in regards to coal v gas and "(This was not obvious at the time, naturally.)"
many people were saying that at the time. In fact here's my own post from 2013 whose title is: "Coal is so bad it makes fracking good"
https://praxtime.com/2013/12/02/coal-is-so-bad-it-makes-fracking-good-3/