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Fully Grown: Why a Stagnant Economy Is a Sign of Success Hardcover – Illustrated, January 13, 2020

by Dietrich Vollrath (Author)
4.4 4.4 out of 5 stars 56 ratings
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Vollrath challenges our long-held assumption that growth is the best indicator of an economy’s health.

Most economists would agree that a thriving economy is synonymous with GDP growth. The more we produce and consume, the higher our living standard and the more resources available to the public. This means that our current era, in which growth has slowed substantially from its postwar highs, has raised alarm bells. But should it? Is growth actually the best way to measure economic success—and does our slowdown indicate economic problems?

The counterintuitive answer Dietrich Vollrath offers is: No. Looking at the same facts as other economists, he offers a radically different interpretation. Rather than a sign of economic failure, he argues, our current slowdown is, in fact, a sign of our widespread economic success. Our powerful economy has already supplied so much of the necessary stuff of modern life, brought us so much comfort, security, and luxury, that we have turned to new forms of production and consumption that increase our well-being but do not contribute to growth in GDP.

In Fully Grown, Vollrath offers a powerful case to support that argument. He explores a number of important trends in the US economy: including a decrease in the number of workers relative to the population, a shift from a goods-driven economy to a services-driven one, and a decline in geographic mobility. In each case, he shows how their economic effects could be read as a sign of success, even though they each act as a brake of GDP growth.  He also reveals what growth measurement can and cannot tell us—which factors are rightly correlated with economic success, which tell us nothing about significant changes in the economy, and which fall into a conspicuously gray area.

Sure to be controversial, Fully Grown will reset the terms of economic debate and help us think anew about what a successful economy looks like.
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  1. Print length
    296 pages
  2. Language
    English
  3. Publisher
    University of Chicago Press
  4. Publication date
    January 13, 2020
  5. Dimensions
    6 x 1.2 x 9 inches
  6. ISBN-10
    022666600X
  7. ISBN-13
    978-0226666006
  8. See all details
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Editorial Reviews

Review

“A wide-ranging and original study of the slowdown in economic growth in America in recent decades.”

― Economist, Best Books of the Year for 2020

"An impressive survey of the economics literature on US productivity. For those interested in the subject, it is a must-read."
  ― Financial Times

“Fully Grown makes a coherent and compelling argument that American productivity growth has only mildly faltered.” ― Wall Street Journal

“For Dietrich Vollrath of the University of Houston, low growth is reason for cheer. In a new book he argues that America’s growth has slowed because so much in the economy has gone so well. . . . His triumph is in showing the degree to which these [GDP numbers] make economic growth an unreliable measure of success. Attempting to capture progress in a single number is a fool’s errand.”
 
 
  ― Economist

"Taken together, slower growth in the labor force and the shift to services can explain almost all the recent slowdown, according to Vollrath. He’s unimpressed by many other explanations that have been offered, such as sluggish rates of capital investment, rising trade pressures, soaring inequality, shrinking technological possibilities, or an increase in monopoly power. In his account, it all flows from the choices we’ve made: 'Slow growth, it turns out, is the optimal response to massive economic success.'” ― New Yorker

"Given the likelihood of recession, some desperate West Wing scribe might want to sneak a few thoughts from Vollrath's Fully Grown: Why a Stagnant Economy Is a Sign of Success into the State of the Union speech. Challenging the automatic equation between economic health and a growing gross domestic product, the author argues that capitalism 'has already supplied so much of the necessary stuff of modern life--brought us so much comfort, security and luxury--that we have turned to new forms of production and consumption that increase our well-being but do not contribute to growth in GDP.'" ― Inside HIgher Ed

"For the past decade, Robert Gordon has written about the rise and fall of American growth, praising the first in our past that was and lamenting the second in our present that is. Now comes Vollrath with a lively, accurate, and essential corrective to Gordon's pessimism: growth is slow today, he demonstrates, not because our economy is failing but because our economy has succeeded." -- Brad DeLong, University of California, Berkeley

"Vollrath offers a provocative new explanation of the slowdown in economic growth experienced by the US economy during the past two decades: we are a victim of our own success. Rising leisure, declining fertility, and the shift out of manufacturing into services explain the bulk of the slowdown in aggregate income growth. Each is a feature of a mature, developed economy, and in that sense, the slowdown may be a symbol of success rather than a sign of failure. Brilliantly supported by the latest research and engagingly presented, Fully Grown provides a startling, novel assessment of economic growth in the 21st century."
  ― Chad Jones, Stanford University

“Anybody who has followed Vollrath’s blog will have been eagerly waiting for this book. Fully Grown is essential reading for anybody interested in the future of the economy. It investigates why the United States and other advanced economies are growing more slowly than in the past. Contrary to conventional wisdom, it argues this slowdown is due to success, not failure. All the leading economies have aging populations, thanks to past gains in health, and are largely service-based, as material goods account for a shrinking share of spending. These two characteristics alone mean the economy will not expand as rapidly in the 21st century. There are plenty of other problems to tackle, from unequal opportunities to excessive market power; but, Vollrath argues convincingly, the growth rate is the wrong way to assess how well the economy is doing.”  -- Diane Coyle, Bennett Professor of Public Policy, University of Cambridge

“This book completes, for me, a series of books that have come out in the last couple of years that help to explain the current state of the US economy and why we can be optimistic about a lot of what is going on.”
  ― Seeking Alpha

"Typically, lower economic growth is deplored because it squeezes private living standards and government programs. But in a fascinating new book, economist Dietrich Vollrath of the University of Houston challenges the conventional wisdom." -- Robert Samuelson ― Washington Post

“Vollrath sets up a clear framework and expounds it lucidly.” ― Inside Story

"But what if slow growth instead reflects great economic success? That’s the provocative thesis of a new book, cleverly titled “Fully Grown,” by economist Dietrich Vollrath...Vollrath not only offers the proverbial two cheers for slower growth rates, but also explains why many oft-proposed policy solutions are not likely to rekindle rapid growth." -- Charles Lane ― Washington Post

"It is refreshing today to read that the U.S. economy is not weak because of a trade war with China or a failure of innovation. According to Vollrath, it is growing more slowly because families have made different decisions about how to live their lives, and those decisions were only possible because of the economy’s previous success. It is conceivable,perhaps even likely, that the U.S. will never again see such a period of supercharged growth as it did in the second half of the 20th century, when it benefited from the tailwinds of life-changing innovation and abundant labor. The lesson of Fully Grown is that perhaps it doesn’t need to." -- Mike Jakeman ― Strategy + Business

"Why has the growth slowed in the high-income countries, notably the US? Is it a sign of failure or of success? Vollrath argues that it is the latter. Thus, the main reasons for the slowdown in the early 21st century are demographic - smaller family sizes and ageing - and the shift from goods to services. The failure to accelerate the overall rate of growth of productivity in the services is striking. Given that reality, Vollrath is right." ― Financial Times

"A combination of admirably lucid, engaging exposition and well-informed synthesis, Vollrath’s book is a must read for anyone interested in long-term trends in the US economy. . . . Highly recommended." ― Choice

"The post‐World War II years brought unprecedented economic growth to much of the world, resulting in massive declines in poverty and huge wealth. How long can this go on? In the United States and other highly developed countries, economic growth has slowed significantly after 2000. This book examines the fundamental causes of this slowdown...[Its] findings are important because they imply a new normal of slower growth in the economically advanced countries." ― Population and Development Review

"If you want to learn a great deal about frontier research in economic growth written in an accessible and engaging way, you will have a hard time finding a better read." ― Economic Record

About the Author

Dietrich Vollrath is professor of economics at the University of Houston. He is coauthor of Introduction to Economic Growth, now in its third edition, and writes the Growth Economics Blog.
 

Product details

  • Publisher ‏ : ‎ University of Chicago Press; First Edition (January 13, 2020)
  • Language ‏ : ‎ English
  • Hardcover ‏ : ‎ 296 pages
  • ISBN-10 ‏ : ‎ 022666600X
  • ISBN-13 ‏ : ‎ 978-0226666006
  • Item Weight ‏ : ‎ 1.2 pounds
  • Dimensions ‏ : ‎ 6 x 1.2 x 9 inches
  • Customer Reviews:
    4.4 4.4 out of 5 stars 56 ratings

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Dietrich Vollrath

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Customer reviews

4.4 out of 5 stars
4.4 out of 5
56 global ratings

Top reviews from the United States

Genesis Keene
5.0 out of 5 stars Thought provoking
Reviewed in the United States on July 24, 2021
Verified Purchase
The book is well written and intelligible by those who aren’t math nerds. It covers a lot of different policy issues and their effects on the growth rate. His conclusion is that their effects are small to nonexistent and that the main driver of the growth slowdown comes from our improved standards of living. Basically our higher levels of wealth led to our consumption shifting away from fast growing sectors like manufacturing and to increased spending on low growth sectors like services. Furthermore, our increased education and access to contraption has given people more control over their fertility which has led to fewer births.

My main issue with this book and Dr. Vollrath’s conclusion is its failure to grapple with the long term effects of aging and then scale reduction due to eventual demographic decline. My understanding was that this could eventually drag productivity down and lower our standard of living.
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JT Dimmitt
4.0 out of 5 stars Assigned Reading
Reviewed in the United States on April 6, 2022
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Vollrath flushes out many good theories and ideas. He also fails to take some things into account. This is what makes economic discussions interesting. Worth the read, if you keep your mind open.
One person found this helpful
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Josh
5.0 out of 5 stars This is an outstanding book - if you like economics and data
Reviewed in the United States on January 28, 2020
Verified Purchase
I do research and analyst work on HR and the workforce and this book really brought it home for me. While Dietrich's book is filled with numbers, it really makes an incredibly strong argument: the economy we face in the future will be shaped by human capital, innovation, demographics, and a new set of issues. The current administration's short term focus on tariffs and halting immigration may in fact be making things worse. Anyway, I won't give the book away but if you want to learn how the economy works NOW (not how it is supposed to work) this book really will help.
10 people found this helpful
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Travis
5.0 out of 5 stars Easy Read
Reviewed in the United States on January 23, 2022
Verified Purchase
Shows how economics as a social science can explain the world around us better than the news and politics. Also takes a step further in the final chapter by explaining that these realities don't universally justify the status quo. Much to think on here.
One person found this helpful
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J. Edgar Mihelic, MA, MA, MBA
4.0 out of 5 stars Good Overview On the Slowing of GDP Growth
Reviewed in the United States on June 17, 2020
In Fully Grown, Vollrath really takes you step by step through what was lowering the rate of GDP growth in the last couple of decades. For me, what really makes intuitive sense is the move from a more goods-producing, industrial economy to a more service-oriented economy. A service-oriented economy by nature has less opportunity to scale and thus is held back from growth. The classic example of Baumol’s cost disease here is a good illustration – 100 years ago you needed 4 musicians to play an hour of a quartet by Mozart, and even now you still need those same 4 musicians (OK, maybe not the same ones but four members of the set “musicians”) to play that quartet. In the same time our factory output has soared while seeing fewer workers.

Of course, this book, like any other economic books released before about 3/17/2020 is from the before-times but I feel that the general trend will hold as our new normal gets as close as possible back to the old normal. One final note – this book is systematic. While reading I noted to myself that it was very well organized. That’s not something that normally pops in my head while reading, so I must give the author and his editors kudos on that one.
One person found this helpful
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John V
5.0 out of 5 stars Terrific book that should be widely read!
Reviewed in the United States on March 17, 2020
Verified Purchase
Terrific book. Well reasoned and supported through data. And very clearly written. It’s a refreshing alternative to the many unsubstantiated diatribes out there right now.
One person found this helpful
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A M
4.0 out of 5 stars Easy to understand explanations of the slowdown in economic growth
Reviewed in the United States on July 1, 2021
Easy to understand explanations of an economic phenomenon regarding the slowdown in economic growth.
One person found this helpful
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JJohnson1987
1.0 out of 5 stars Dreary rehashing of well-known and well-worn stuff from Econ 101 and elsewhere
Reviewed in the United States on March 27, 2020
Syllogism that summarizes the entire book (excluding all the bits where he rehashes Econ 101 and all manner of other well-known statistics):

(1) Productivity growth in services is harder.
(2) Services now take up a greater share of the economy (and this is a sign of success).
(3) Hence, there has been less productivity growth (but this is a sign of success).

Even the above is hardly a novel idea. (What is novel is spinning this old idea into a book with a provocative title.)
3 people found this helpful
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Top reviews from other countries

Amazon Customer
5.0 out of 5 stars Very good
Reviewed in the United Kingdom on August 9, 2020
Verified Purchase
Superb book. Excellently framed. Really insightful.
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William Jordan
4.0 out of 5 stars persuasive accent of growth rates
Reviewed in the United Kingdom on April 25, 2020
Verified Purchase
The author analyses the reasons for the decline in growth rates since 2000 and concludes the most important factor is about the workforce - smaller families of baby boomers and reductions in working hours; and the second most important is a switch from buying goods to buying services (where growth is lower); and other factors include a lower rate of turnover of companies and moving homes by individuals - and when people do move homes they tend to go where it's warmer in winter rather than where it might be best to go for the economy. It can be seen, as the back cover points out, as a sort of sequel to The Rise and Fall of American Growth.

Some other much touted explanations of the growth rate have minimal impact - market power, taxes and regulation, inequality and immigration, though all are important subjects in their own right.

The author also concludes that most of the reasons for the slower rate of growth are signs of economic success and not economic failure.

This book I found persuasive on all counts - and it's written as simply as I imagine is possible given the complexity of the subject matter - but that does not mean it's incredibly simply to read and follow, even so.
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