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1 | Prediction | Resolution | Score avg | Score stdev | Scott | Market | Sprfrcaster avg | Predictor avg | Aggregate | Scores for contest entrants | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
2 | Scott predictions (sections: US/world, econ/tech, COVID, prediction markets) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
3 | Biden approval rating (as per 538) is greater than fifty percent (40) | 0 | 0.39 | 0.26 | 0.51 | 0.15 | 0.31 | 0.36 | 0.27 | 0.36 | 0.11 | 0.43 | 0.22 | 0.36 | 0.22 | 0.36 | 0.16 | 0.80 | 0.22 | 0.36 | 0.22 | 0.11 | 0.29 | 0.60 | 0.31 | 0.43 | 0.36 | 0.69 | 0.29 | 0.36 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.36 | 0.22 | 0.51 | 0.36 | 0.22 | 0.29 | 0.43 | 0.51 | 0.05 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.43 | 0.36 | 0.92 | 0.20 | 0.22 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.51 | 0.11 | 0.43 | 0.56 | 0.51 | 0.29 | 0.22 | 0.36 | 0.33 | 0.29 | 0.43 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.40 | 0.29 | 0.11 | 0.36 | 0.29 | 0.43 | 0.69 | 0.60 | 0.22 | 0.36 | 0.43 | 0.29 | 0.36 | 0.43 | 0.51 | 0.43 | 0.36 | 0.69 | 0.29 | 0.01 | 0.36 | 0.29 | 0.43 | 0.16 | 0.92 | 0.36 | 0.22 | 0.36 | 0.29 | 0.45 | 0.36 | 0.25 | 0.36 | 0.43 | 0.43 | 1.20 | 0.16 | |
4 | At least $250 million in damage from a single round of mass protests in US (10) | 0 | 0.19 | 0.33 | 0.11 | 0.45 | 0.17 | 0.16 | 0.13 | 0.05 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 0.05 | 0.22 | 0.11 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 0.07 | 0.16 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.16 | 1.20 | 0.02 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.36 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.07 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.02 | 0.05 | 0.36 | 0.13 | 0.11 | 0.16 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 0.16 | 0.13 | 0.16 | 0.07 | 0.51 | 0.05 | 0.27 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 1.90 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 0.08 | 0.02 | 0.22 | 0.36 | 0.29 | 0.05 | 0.16 | 0.05 | 0.08 | 0.16 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 0.43 | 0.05 | 0.69 | 0.16 | 0.11 | 1.90 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.05 | 0.16 | 0.25 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 1.90 | |
5 | PredictIt thinks Joe Biden is most likely 2024 Dem nominee (80) | 1 | 0.35 | 0.36 | 0.22 | 0.31 | 0.24 | 0.31 | 0.32 | 0.22 | 2.30 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.16 | 0.29 | 0.11 | 0.22 | 0.16 | 0.36 | 0.11 | 0.36 | 0.02 | 0.22 | 0.36 | 0.26 | 0.11 | 0.05 | 0.36 | 0.29 | 0.01 | 0.43 | 0.92 | 0.11 | 0.01 | 0.22 | 0.16 | 0.22 | 0.11 | 0.16 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.29 | 0.22 | 0.16 | 0.16 | 0.51 | 0.16 | 0.11 | 0.51 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.11 | 0.36 | 0.29 | 0.60 | 0.27 | 0.51 | 0.69 | 0.43 | 0.36 | 0.11 | 0.16 | 0.05 | 0.22 | 1.20 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 0.16 | 0.33 | 0.16 | 0.16 | 0.11 | 0.43 | 0.43 | 0.11 | 0.22 | 0.25 | 0.22 | 0.29 | 0.51 | 0.08 | 0.36 | 0.69 | 0.22 | 0.11 | 0.92 | 0.05 | 0.36 | 0.11 | 0.05 | 0.16 | 0.22 | 0.19 | 0.11 | 0.43 | 0.29 | 0.43 | 0.29 | 0.22 | 0.11 | |
6 | PredictIt thinks Donald Trump is most likely 2024 GOP nominee (60) | 0 | 1.05 | 0.51 | 0.92 | 0.92 | 1.31 | 0.95 | 1.06 | 0.92 | 0.51 | 0.69 | 1.61 | 1.61 | 1.05 | 1.61 | 0.92 | 1.05 | 0.69 | 1.61 | 0.36 | 1.39 | 0.69 | 1.20 | 1.39 | 1.90 | 1.20 | 1.61 | 0.69 | 0.60 | 0.51 | 1.20 | 1.20 | 1.39 | 0.69 | 1.20 | 0.69 | 1.39 | 0.92 | 0.92 | 0.69 | 1.05 | 0.92 | 1.61 | 0.60 | 1.05 | 0.69 | 0.36 | 0.60 | 1.20 | 0.92 | 1.61 | 0.92 | 0.82 | 1.20 | 0.69 | 1.61 | 0.69 | 1.90 | 1.20 | 1.61 | 1.39 | 1.39 | 0.69 | 2.30 | 1.90 | 1.20 | 1.20 | 0.80 | 0.69 | 0.60 | 0.92 | 0.69 | 1.39 | 1.39 | 1.05 | 1.20 | 1.20 | 0.80 | 1.20 | 0.51 | 0.69 | 0.69 | 0.92 | 1.39 | 1.20 | 1.61 | 0.69 | 0.92 | 2.30 | 1.39 | 1.20 | 0.99 | 1.20 | 1.39 | 0.80 | 1.20 | 0.92 | 0.92 | 3.00 | |
7 | Major flare-up (worse than past 5 years) in Russia/Ukraine conflict (50; also, Matt Yglesias predicts a 40% chance that Russia invades Ukraine) | 1 | 0.72 | 0.51 | 0.69 | 0.27 | 0.58 | 0.63 | 0.58 | 0.51 | 1.61 | 0.43 | 0.36 | 0.29 | 0.60 | 0.51 | 0.92 | 1.05 | 0.29 | 0.92 | 0.29 | 0.69 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.60 | 0.67 | 0.43 | 1.05 | 0.51 | 0.43 | 0.51 | 0.92 | 0.43 | 0.51 | 0.92 | 0.69 | 0.92 | 0.69 | 0.92 | 0.69 | 1.20 | 2.30 | 0.69 | 1.05 | 0.51 | 0.60 | 0.97 | 0.36 | 0.92 | 0.51 | 1.20 | 0.69 | 0.80 | 0.97 | 0.51 | 0.60 | 0.51 | 0.60 | 0.69 | 1.20 | 0.43 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 1.24 | 0.36 | 2.30 | 0.80 | 0.51 | 0.43 | 0.36 | 0.60 | 0.36 | 1.20 | 1.05 | 0.69 | 0.69 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.69 | 1.20 | 0.51 | 1.39 | 4.61 | 1.20 | 0.29 | 0.51 | 0.43 | 0.69 | 0.69 | 0.51 | 0.69 | 0.92 | 1.14 | 0.92 | 0.29 | 0.51 | 0.92 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.29 | |
8 | Major flare-up (worse than past 10 years) in Israel/Palestine conflict (5) | 0 | 0.11 | 0.16 | 0.05 | 0.16 | 0.08 | 0.11 | 0.10 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 0.01 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.29 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 0.08 | 0.05 | 0.04 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 0.16 | 0.11 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.80 | 0.11 | 0.08 | 0.11 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 0.22 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 0.01 | 0.16 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 0.11 | 0.05 | 0.03 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 0.06 | 0.11 | 0.05 | 0.02 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 0.05 | 0.03 | 0.11 | 0.07 | 0.36 | 0.07 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 0.02 | 0.43 | 0.11 | 0.08 | 0.05 | 0.16 | 0.16 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 0.08 | 0.05 | 0.29 | 0.11 | 0.05 | 1.61 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 0.09 | 0.05 | 0.13 | 0.05 | 0.06 | 0.04 | 0.01 | 0.11 | |
9 | Major flare-up (worse than in past 50 years) in China/Taiwan conflict (5) | 0 | 0.12 | 0.18 | 0.05 | 0.16 | 0.10 | 0.11 | 0.10 | 0.05 | 0.36 | 0.16 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.01 | 0.06 | 0.08 | 0.05 | 0.92 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.01 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.13 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 0.16 | 0.11 | 0.36 | 0.11 | 0.69 | 0.11 | 0.08 | 0.36 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.36 | 0.11 | 0.16 | 0.05 | 0.04 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.04 | 0.05 | 0.22 | 0.03 | 0.16 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 0.13 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.05 | 1.05 | 0.01 | 0.07 | 0.16 | 0.13 | 0.05 | 0.04 | 0.92 | 0.08 | 0.05 | 0.06 | 0.05 | 0.60 | 0.29 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 0.13 | 0.05 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.16 | 0.01 | 0.16 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.05 | 0.06 | 0.11 | 0.16 | 0.05 | 0.01 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 0.02 | |
10 | Honduran ZEDEs legally crippled to the point where no reasonable person would invest in them further (5) | 0 | 0.14 | 0.32 | 0.05 | 0.18 | 0.14 | 0.14 | 0.05 | 0.36 | 0.05 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.11 | 0.06 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 0.01 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.07 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 0.01 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.03 | 0.16 | 0.05 | 0.22 | 0.03 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.16 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 0.05 | 0.36 | 0.05 | 0.01 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.07 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 0.22 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.08 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 0.05 | 0.16 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 0.16 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.29 | 0.36 | 0.22 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.04 | 0.05 | 0.22 | 0.05 | ||
11 | New ZEDE approved in Honduras (30) | 0 | 0.34 | 0.17 | 0.36 | 0.27 | 0.31 | 0.24 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.11 | 0.16 | 0.16 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.29 | 0.69 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.22 | 0.36 | 0.29 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.11 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.02 | 0.22 | 0.36 | 0.22 | 0.43 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.29 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.51 | 0.36 | 0.22 | 0.36 | 0.29 | 0.22 | 0.29 | 0.36 | 0.22 | 0.36 | 0.16 | 0.29 | 0.22 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.11 | 0.29 | 0.33 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.29 | 0.36 | 0.22 | 0.36 | 0.29 | 0.51 | 0.40 | 0.51 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.22 | 0.36 | 0.29 | 0.11 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.22 | 0.29 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.51 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.11 | 0.29 | ||
12 | Gamestop stock price still above $100 (30) | 0 | 0.41 | 0.29 | 0.36 | 0.69 | 0.44 | 0.37 | 0.30 | 0.69 | 0.11 | 0.29 | 0.22 | 0.29 | 0.43 | 0.36 | 0.51 | 0.22 | 0.16 | 0.11 | 0.36 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.43 | 0.11 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.69 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.22 | 0.29 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.29 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.29 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.80 | 0.69 | 0.11 | 0.26 | 0.11 | 0.29 | 0.22 | 0.43 | 0.36 | 0.11 | 0.39 | 0.29 | 0.36 | 0.69 | 0.36 | 0.73 | 0.51 | 0.29 | 0.11 | 0.01 | 0.22 | 1.61 | 0.11 | 0.36 | 0.22 | 0.08 | 0.11 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.29 | 0.22 | 0.36 | 0.29 | 0.29 | 0.92 | 0.92 | 0.22 | 0.69 | 0.36 | 0.01 | 0.11 | 0.22 | 0.92 | 0.16 | 0.22 | 1.20 | 0.16 | 0.69 | 0.51 | 0.42 | 0.92 | 0.22 | 0.69 | 0.92 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.29 | |
13 | Bitcoin above 100K (20) | 0 | 0.21 | 0.23 | 0.22 | 0.08 | 0.21 | 0.19 | 0.13 | 0.11 | 0.51 | 0.16 | 0.11 | 0.16 | 0.22 | 0.11 | 0.22 | 0.11 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 0.05 | 0.01 | 0.36 | 0.11 | 0.22 | 0.16 | 0.11 | 0.16 | 0.22 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.22 | 1.39 | 0.16 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.11 | 0.29 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.29 | 0.22 | 0.29 | 0.01 | 0.11 | 0.16 | 0.11 | 0.29 | 0.36 | 0.16 | 0.22 | 0.36 | 0.16 | 0.11 | 0.13 | 0.92 | 0.22 | 0.24 | 0.29 | 0.11 | 0.03 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.29 | 0.11 | 0.22 | 0.11 | 0.13 | 0.16 | 0.11 | 0.36 | 0.43 | 0.43 | 0.16 | 0.36 | 0.22 | 0.16 | 0.29 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.01 | 0.22 | 0.36 | 0.51 | 0.01 | 0.16 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 0.22 | 0.21 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.16 | 0.22 | 0.01 | |
14 | Ethereum above 5K (20) | 0 | 0.30 | 0.35 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.27 | 0.27 | 0.26 | 0.11 | 0.51 | 0.92 | 0.69 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.11 | 0.22 | 0.11 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.36 | 0.11 | 0.25 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.16 | 0.36 | 0.29 | 0.11 | 0.16 | 0.22 | 0.51 | 0.22 | 0.29 | 0.36 | 0.11 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.36 | 0.22 | 0.36 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 0.29 | 0.11 | 0.29 | 0.69 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.29 | 0.22 | 0.16 | 0.13 | 0.92 | 0.22 | 0.39 | 0.29 | 0.11 | 0.03 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.92 | 0.36 | 0.29 | 0.11 | 0.13 | 0.22 | 0.19 | 0.36 | 0.29 | 0.43 | 0.22 | 0.36 | 0.29 | 0.16 | 0.29 | 0.51 | 0.16 | 0.22 | 0.01 | 0.22 | 0.36 | 0.60 | 0.11 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 0.22 | 0.27 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.36 | 0.71 | 0.16 | 0.22 | 0.01 | |
15 | Ethereum above 0.05 BTC (90) | 1 | 0.20 | 0.33 | 0.11 | 1.02 | 0.14 | 0.18 | 0.17 | 0.22 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.16 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.05 | 0.51 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.16 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.05 | 0.16 | 0.05 | 0.22 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.22 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.22 | 0.29 | 0.05 | 0.22 | 0.11 | 0.16 | 0.22 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.09 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.08 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.01 | 0.22 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 0.16 | 0.51 | 0.01 | 0.11 | 0.05 | 0.16 | 0.11 | 0.29 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.16 | 0.11 | 0.01 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.05 | 0.29 | 0.11 | 0.17 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.51 | 0.01 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.29 | |
16 | Dow above 35K (90) | 0 | 1.99 | 0.82 | 2.30 | 0.78 | 1.38 | 1.61 | 1.60 | 2.30 | 2.30 | 3.00 | 2.30 | 1.39 | 3.00 | 4.61 | 0.92 | 1.90 | 1.05 | 0.92 | 1.20 | 2.30 | 2.30 | 2.30 | 1.61 | 2.41 | 3.00 | 2.30 | 0.92 | 2.30 | 0.69 | 1.20 | 2.30 | 2.30 | 2.30 | 2.30 | 1.90 | 3.00 | 1.90 | 2.30 | 0.80 | 1.39 | 2.30 | 0.92 | 1.20 | 1.90 | 1.90 | 1.61 | 1.20 | 1.61 | 1.61 | 2.30 | 1.90 | 2.12 | 2.30 | 1.05 | 1.20 | 2.30 | 0.80 | 1.90 | 3.00 | 2.30 | 1.61 | 1.90 | 0.69 | 3.91 | 2.30 | 1.20 | 1.90 | 1.61 | 1.61 | 0.11 | 3.00 | 0.92 | 1.61 | 2.30 | 1.20 | 2.30 | 2.30 | 2.30 | 2.30 | 3.00 | 4.61 | 0.92 | 2.30 | 2.30 | 3.00 | 2.30 | 2.30 | 3.00 | 1.20 | 1.61 | 1.97 | 2.30 | 0.92 | 1.61 | 1.61 | 2.30 | 1.61 | 3.00 | |
17 | Dow above 37.5K (40) | 0 | 0.65 | 0.44 | 0.51 | 0.36 | 0.57 | 0.60 | 0.67 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 1.05 | 0.51 | 0.36 | 0.69 | 1.20 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.69 | 1.61 | 0.60 | 0.29 | 0.69 | 0.69 | 0.69 | 0.69 | 0.29 | 0.36 | 0.51 | 0.80 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 1.20 | 0.43 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.36 | 0.80 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.29 | 1.20 | 1.05 | 0.22 | 0.36 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.43 | 0.49 | 0.51 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.43 | 0.92 | 0.51 | 0.36 | 0.69 | 0.29 | 1.20 | 0.69 | 0.36 | 0.92 | 0.43 | 0.69 | 0.05 | 0.69 | 0.29 | 0.69 | 0.92 | 1.05 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.36 | 0.69 | 1.20 | 0.69 | 0.51 | 0.92 | 0.51 | 1.05 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.69 | 0.36 | 0.92 | 0.73 | 0.92 | 0.69 | 0.69 | 0.80 | 0.51 | 0.92 | 1.90 | |
18 | Inflation for the year below five percent (90) | 0 | 1.54 | 0.86 | 2.30 | 0.60 | 1.32 | 1.15 | 0.94 | 1.61 | 0.22 | 2.30 | 1.20 | 3.00 | 1.90 | 3.00 | 1.20 | 1.90 | 0.22 | 1.61 | 3.00 | 1.05 | 1.61 | 0.92 | 1.20 | 2.30 | 1.61 | 2.30 | 0.80 | 2.30 | 1.61 | 0.05 | 1.61 | 3.00 | 1.61 | 2.30 | 1.20 | 3.00 | 3.00 | 0.92 | 2.30 | 1.61 | 2.30 | 1.39 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 2.66 | 3.00 | 1.61 | 1.20 | 1.90 | 2.30 | 1.39 | 2.12 | 2.30 | 1.61 | 3.00 | 1.61 | 1.24 | 1.61 | 1.61 | 2.30 | 1.20 | 0.92 | 1.61 | 0.92 | 1.61 | 0.92 | 1.61 | 1.61 | 2.81 | 0.11 | 0.60 | 1.61 | 1.39 | 2.30 | 2.30 | 0.92 | 1.61 | 0.92 | 1.39 | 0.92 | 4.61 | 1.61 | 2.30 | 0.11 | 0.69 | 1.90 | 2.30 | 0.92 | 1.61 | 1.90 | 1.51 | 4.61 | 0.11 | 1.61 | 2.30 | 2.30 | 1.20 | 3.91 | |
19 | Unemployment below five percent in December (50) | 1 | 0.56 | 0.40 | 0.69 | 0.31 | 0.39 | 0.47 | 0.35 | 0.22 | 0.36 | 0.29 | 1.20 | 0.36 | 0.92 | 0.51 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.11 | 0.22 | 0.29 | 0.29 | 0.92 | 0.69 | 0.43 | 0.60 | 0.39 | 0.51 | 0.43 | 0.36 | 0.05 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.69 | 0.69 | 0.43 | 0.92 | 0.36 | 0.69 | 0.22 | 0.69 | 0.69 | 0.43 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.22 | 1.20 | 0.51 | 1.20 | 0.51 | 0.36 | 0.60 | 0.73 | 0.69 | 0.69 | 0.22 | 0.69 | 0.11 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.69 | 0.51 | 0.60 | 1.39 | 0.16 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.43 | 0.92 | 0.22 | 1.61 | 0.51 | 0.43 | 0.22 | 0.69 | 0.51 | 0.69 | 0.51 | 0.22 | 0.29 | 0.29 | 0.01 | 0.22 | 0.92 | 0.69 | 0.22 | 0.69 | 0.69 | 0.92 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.69 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 1.20 | 0.43 | 0.69 | 0.11 | 0.29 | |
20 | Google widely allows remote work, no questions asked (50) | 0 | 0.80 | 0.42 | 0.69 | 0.15 | 0.73 | 0.74 | 0.79 | 0.92 | 1.20 | 0.69 | 0.69 | 0.51 | 0.69 | 0.92 | 0.92 | 1.05 | 2.30 | 0.51 | 1.20 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.69 | 1.05 | 0.80 | 0.69 | 0.43 | 0.92 | 0.43 | 1.39 | 1.20 | 1.61 | 1.20 | 0.92 | 0.69 | 0.29 | 0.92 | 0.69 | 0.69 | 0.36 | 0.69 | 0.69 | 1.05 | 1.05 | 0.69 | 0.36 | 1.20 | 0.92 | 0.22 | 0.69 | 0.92 | 0.92 | 0.92 | 0.69 | 0.22 | 1.20 | 0.92 | 0.69 | 0.51 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 1.20 | 1.08 | 2.12 | 0.36 | 0.69 | 0.22 | 0.80 | 0.51 | 1.20 | 0.51 | 0.60 | 1.39 | 0.43 | 1.20 | 1.61 | 1.61 | 0.69 | 0.69 | 1.61 | 0.43 | 0.69 | 1.20 | 0.92 | 0.01 | 0.22 | 0.69 | 1.61 | 0.29 | 0.69 | 0.69 | 0.69 | 0.69 | 0.69 | 0.69 | 0.69 | 0.80 | 0.69 | 1.39 | |
21 | Starship reaches orbit (90) | 0 | 2.16 | 0.64 | 2.30 | 2.81 | 2.00 | 1.86 | 1.88 | 2.30 | 0.69 | 2.30 | 2.30 | 2.30 | 3.00 | 2.30 | 1.39 | 2.30 | 4.61 | 2.30 | 1.61 | 2.30 | 2.30 | 1.61 | 3.00 | 2.30 | 2.30 | 1.20 | 1.61 | 2.30 | 1.61 | 2.30 | 2.30 | 1.61 | 2.30 | 2.30 | 2.30 | 2.30 | 2.30 | 2.30 | 2.30 | 2.30 | 2.30 | 1.90 | 3.00 | 2.30 | 1.71 | 2.30 | 2.30 | 2.30 | 1.61 | 1.39 | 1.90 | 2.30 | 3.00 | 2.30 | 1.39 | 1.61 | 2.30 | 2.30 | 2.30 | 2.30 | 0.69 | 3.00 | 2.30 | 2.30 | 2.30 | 2.30 | 3.00 | 2.30 | 1.20 | 0.11 | 1.90 | 2.30 | 2.41 | 2.30 | 1.90 | 2.30 | 2.30 | 2.30 | 2.30 | 2.30 | 4.61 | 2.30 | 2.30 | 4.61 | 2.30 | 2.30 | 2.30 | 2.30 | 1.90 | 2.30 | 2.53 | 2.30 | 1.61 | 1.39 | 2.30 | 2.21 | 1.20 | 3.91 | |
22 | Fewer than 10K daily average official COVID cases in US in December 2022 (20) | 0 | 0.26 | 0.33 | 0.22 | 0.34 | 0.23 | 0.16 | 0.05 | 0.69 | 0.11 | 0.16 | 0.11 | 0.29 | 0.22 | 0.11 | 0.51 | 0.05 | 0.36 | 0.05 | 0.43 | 0.11 | 0.22 | 0.25 | 0.16 | 0.22 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.22 | 0.43 | 0.22 | 0.16 | 0.22 | 0.16 | 0.11 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.11 | 0.22 | 0.05 | 0.43 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.22 | 0.16 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.16 | 0.27 | 0.22 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.22 | 0.03 | 0.16 | 0.51 | 0.36 | 0.11 | 0.43 | 0.11 | 0.22 | 0.29 | 0.16 | 0.29 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.16 | 0.11 | 0.05 | 0.36 | 0.16 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.11 | 0.36 | 0.22 | 0.05 | 0.36 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 0.22 | 0.29 | 0.22 | 0.51 | 0.22 | 0.05 | 0.13 | 0.11 | 0.16 | 0.36 | 0.16 | 0.20 | 0.05 | 0.05 | ||
23 | Fewer than 50K daily average COVID cases worldwide in December 2022 (1) | 0 | 0.06 | 0.18 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.05 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 0.36 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.05 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 0.05 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.19 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.01 | 0.05 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.05 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.05 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.05 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.05 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.05 | 0.01 | 0.05 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.22 | 0.01 | 0.05 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.05 | 0.01 | |
24 | >66% US population fully vaccinated (by current standards) against COVID (70) | 1 | 0.34 | 0.25 | 0.36 | 0.22 | 0.31 | 0.31 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.16 | 0.69 | 0.29 | 0.36 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.43 | 0.11 | 0.22 | 0.16 | 0.01 | 0.22 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.29 | 0.29 | 0.22 | 0.36 | 0.22 | 0.29 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.16 | 0.11 | 0.29 | 0.11 | 0.43 | 0.16 | 0.36 | 0.22 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.16 | 0.43 | 0.22 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.11 | 0.36 | 0.11 | 0.60 | 0.39 | 0.29 | 0.29 | 0.01 | 0.36 | 0.31 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.92 | 0.36 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.36 | 0.51 | 0.60 | 0.92 | 0.29 | 0.51 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.16 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.22 | 0.43 | 0.16 | 0.69 | 0.11 | 0.16 | 1.61 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.43 | 0.36 | 0.22 | 0.30 | 0.29 | 0.36 | 0.69 | 0.05 | 0.29 | 0.22 | 0.11 | |
25 | India's official case count is higher than US (5) | 0 | 0.16 | 0.28 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 0.15 | 0.14 | 0.05 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 0.05 | 0.22 | 0.01 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.05 | 0.07 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.05 | 0.69 | 0.01 | 0.11 | 0.01 | 0.11 | 0.03 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.05 | 0.01 | 0.13 | 0.05 | 0.80 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.13 | 0.05 | 0.08 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.22 | 0.08 | 0.03 | 0.05 | 1.20 | 0.11 | 0.03 | 0.11 | 0.07 | 0.11 | 0.03 | 0.11 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 0.51 | 0.02 | 0.11 | 0.05 | 0.22 | 0.92 | 0.16 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.16 | 0.05 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.05 | 3.00 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.29 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 0.05 | 0.01 | 0.01 | ||
26 | Medical establishment reverses course and officially says any of Vitamin D, HCQ, or ivermectin is actually effective against COVID (1) | 0 | 0.07 | 0.27 | 0.01 | 0.09 | 0.06 | 0.06 | 0.04 | 0.01 | 0.11 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.22 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.11 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.05 | 0.01 | 0.05 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.36 | 0.05 | 0.01 | 0.05 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.08 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.11 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.05 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.05 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.05 | 0.01 | 0.11 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 4.61 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.06 | 0.01 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.05 | |
27 | FDA approves a COVID indication for fluvoxamine (60) | 0 | 0.91 | 0.37 | 0.92 | 0.88 | 0.83 | 0.77 | 0.69 | 0.36 | 0.69 | 0.69 | 0.80 | 0.92 | 0.92 | 0.92 | 0.80 | 0.22 | 0.92 | 0.92 | 0.92 | 0.92 | 0.92 | 0.80 | 0.80 | 0.92 | 0.36 | 0.92 | 1.05 | 0.51 | 0.36 | 1.20 | 0.80 | 0.92 | 0.92 | 0.92 | 1.05 | 1.05 | 0.92 | 0.92 | 0.51 | 0.92 | 0.80 | 1.71 | 0.92 | 0.92 | 0.92 | 0.92 | 0.92 | 0.92 | 0.51 | 1.20 | 0.84 | 1.05 | 0.80 | 1.20 | 0.92 | 0.92 | 0.36 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 1.61 | 1.20 | 0.16 | 0.92 | 0.92 | 0.92 | 1.39 | 0.51 | 0.69 | 0.69 | 0.92 | 0.92 | 0.69 | 0.92 | 1.51 | 1.20 | 0.92 | 1.61 | 0.69 | 1.20 | 0.69 | 0.92 | 0.92 | 1.61 | 0.92 | 0.92 | 0.92 | 1.39 | 0.92 | 0.92 | 1.02 | 0.92 | 1.61 | 0.80 | 1.20 | 0.92 | 0.92 | 0.43 | ||
28 | Some new variant not currently known is greater than 25% of cases (60) | 0 | 1.32 | 0.73 | 0.92 | 1.56 | 0.70 | 1.16 | 1.49 | 1.20 | 1.20 | 3.00 | 1.20 | 1.39 | 1.20 | 0.92 | 1.61 | 1.05 | 4.61 | 1.20 | 1.20 | 1.47 | 1.61 | 1.61 | 0.80 | 1.61 | 0.36 | 1.61 | 1.61 | 1.61 | 1.39 | 1.20 | 1.20 | 4.61 | 0.92 | 1.39 | 1.39 | 0.69 | 1.20 | 0.92 | 1.61 | 1.39 | 0.92 | 1.39 | 1.90 | 1.39 | 1.08 | 1.61 | 1.05 | 0.69 | 1.20 | 0.92 | 1.20 | 1.02 | 1.20 | 1.61 | 0.43 | 0.69 | 1.27 | 1.20 | 1.61 | 0.92 | 1.20 | 1.20 | 1.90 | 0.16 | 1.20 | 2.30 | 1.20 | 1.61 | 0.51 | 4.61 | 1.05 | 0.69 | 1.39 | 1.20 | 0.51 | 1.61 | 0.92 | 1.20 | 1.61 | 1.61 | 1.39 | 0.69 | 1.61 | 2.30 | 4.61 | 1.39 | 0.92 | 1.39 | 0.92 | 0.69 | 1.31 | 0.69 | 1.20 | 1.61 | 1.20 | 1.05 | 0.36 | 3.00 | |
29 | Most people Scott sees in his local grocery store on December 31st are wearing masks (60) | 0 | 0.78 | 0.43 | 0.92 | 0.48 | 0.57 | 0.67 | 0.53 | 0.92 | 0.11 | 0.60 | 0.92 | 0.51 | 0.92 | 0.92 | 1.61 | 0.51 | 4.61 | 0.69 | 0.92 | 0.22 | 2.30 | 0.92 | 0.51 | 0.80 | 0.92 | 0.69 | 0.92 | 1.20 | 0.22 | 1.20 | 0.51 | 1.05 | 0.92 | 1.61 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.92 | 0.92 | 0.92 | 0.92 | 0.92 | 0.43 | 1.61 | 0.36 | 0.43 | 0.36 | 0.80 | 0.51 | 1.20 | 0.69 | 0.51 | 0.84 | 1.20 | 0.36 | 0.51 | 0.69 | 1.08 | 0.51 | 0.36 | 0.69 | 0.51 | 0.43 | 0.36 | 3.00 | 0.69 | 0.51 | 1.61 | 0.51 | 0.69 | 0.51 | 1.05 | 0.92 | 2.30 | 0.36 | 0.69 | 0.22 | 0.92 | 0.22 | 0.69 | 1.39 | 0.92 | 0.36 | 0.43 | 1.61 | 0.43 | 0.92 | 1.20 | 0.16 | 0.92 | 0.51 | 0.76 | 0.92 | 0.92 | 1.20 | 0.80 | 0.51 | 0.92 | 0.16 | |
30 | Masks still required on US domestic flights (60) | 0 | 0.98 | 0.57 | 0.92 | 0.71 | 0.79 | 0.85 | 0.84 | 0.92 | 0.11 | 2.30 | 0.92 | 0.92 | 0.92 | 0.92 | 2.30 | 0.69 | 4.61 | 0.69 | 0.92 | 0.92 | 1.61 | 1.20 | 0.60 | 1.39 | 1.05 | 1.39 | 0.92 | 1.61 | 0.22 | 2.30 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.92 | 1.20 | 1.61 | 0.51 | 0.69 | 0.92 | 0.51 | 0.92 | 0.92 | 0.43 | 1.61 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.69 | 0.80 | 0.69 | 1.20 | 0.69 | 0.69 | 1.05 | 1.61 | 0.36 | 1.61 | 0.92 | 1.14 | 0.51 | 0.22 | 0.69 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.16 | 4.61 | 1.20 | 0.51 | 1.61 | 0.51 | 1.05 | 1.20 | 1.39 | 1.61 | 2.30 | 0.69 | 0.92 | 0.22 | 0.92 | 0.92 | 0.43 | 0.69 | 0.29 | 0.36 | 0.69 | 1.61 | 0.05 | 0.40 | 0.92 | 1.90 | 0.51 | 1.20 | 1.02 | 0.69 | 0.60 | 1.20 | 0.71 | 0.69 | 0.22 | 1.39 | |
31 | CDC recommends that triple-vaxxed people get at least one more vax (70) | 1 | 0.39 | 0.34 | 0.36 | 0.49 | 0.31 | 0.35 | 0.27 | 0.29 | 2.30 | 0.11 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.29 | 0.51 | 0.22 | 0.51 | 0.01 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.01 | 0.69 | 0.36 | 0.43 | 0.29 | 0.60 | 0.22 | 0.69 | 0.22 | 0.29 | 0.11 | 0.22 | 0.01 | 0.36 | 0.22 | 0.51 | 0.29 | 0.29 | 0.36 | 0.51 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.60 | 0.22 | 0.11 | 0.80 | 0.22 | 0.29 | 0.51 | 0.36 | 0.51 | 0.22 | 0.36 | 0.22 | 0.36 | 0.16 | 0.36 | 0.45 | 0.29 | 0.22 | 0.51 | 0.36 | 0.69 | 0.16 | 0.05 | 0.69 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.29 | 0.22 | 0.29 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.11 | 0.80 | 0.22 | 0.29 | 0.36 | 0.11 | 0.01 | 4.61 | 0.92 | 0.51 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.36 | 0.16 | 0.29 | 0.51 | 0.30 | 0.36 | 0.60 | 0.11 | 0.29 | 0.51 | 0.01 | 1.90 | |
32 | China has fewer than 100,000 COVID cases this year (official estimate) (30) | 0 | 0.56 | 0.55 | 0.36 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.58 | 0.51 | 2.30 | 0.69 | 0.22 | 0.29 | 0.51 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.92 | 4.61 | 0.22 | 0.69 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.43 | 0.29 | 0.65 | 0.92 | 0.36 | 0.22 | 0.69 | 0.51 | 0.22 | 0.01 | 0.51 | 0.36 | 0.11 | 0.29 | 0.29 | 0.36 | 0.22 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 1.05 | 0.51 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.22 | 0.29 | 0.22 | 0.51 | 0.36 | 0.11 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.29 | 0.51 | 0.36 | 1.20 | 0.51 | 0.22 | 0.36 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.16 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.92 | 0.36 | 0.69 | 0.01 | 1.20 | 0.51 | 0.36 | 1.20 | 0.22 | 0.36 | 1.61 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.43 | 0.51 | 0.69 | 0.22 | 0.36 | 0.43 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.29 | 0.43 | 0.36 | 0.73 | 0.92 | 0.51 | 3.00 | 0.80 | 0.36 | 2.30 | 3.00 | ||
33 | No new real-money prediction market becomes bigger than Polymarket (70) | 1 | 0.40 | 0.31 | 0.36 | 0.49 | 0.34 | 0.38 | 0.37 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.29 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.29 | 0.69 | 0.36 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.51 | 0.36 | 0.29 | 0.36 | 0.29 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.22 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.22 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.43 | 0.51 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.16 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.22 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.69 | 0.22 | 0.92 | 0.36 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.29 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.36 | 0.22 | 0.69 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.51 | 0.29 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.22 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.60 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.22 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.05 | |
34 | Manifold Markets is still alive and active (30) | 1 | 1.12 | 0.32 | 1.20 | 0.09 | 0.90 | 0.99 | 0.89 | 1.20 | 1.20 | 1.20 | 1.20 | 1.20 | 1.20 | 1.20 | 1.20 | 1.20 | 0.69 | 1.20 | 1.20 | 1.20 | 1.20 | 0.36 | 1.20 | 1.20 | 1.20 | 1.20 | 0.69 | 0.92 | 1.05 | 1.20 | 1.20 | 0.69 | 1.05 | 1.20 | 1.61 | 1.39 | 1.20 | 1.20 | 0.92 | 1.20 | 1.20 | 1.20 | 0.92 | 1.20 | 1.05 | 1.20 | 1.05 | 0.92 | 0.69 | 1.20 | 1.20 | 1.20 | 1.20 | 1.20 | 0.69 | 1.20 | 1.20 | 1.20 | 0.92 | 1.20 | 1.20 | 0.92 | 1.20 | 1.20 | 1.20 | 1.20 | 1.20 | 1.20 | 0.51 | 1.20 | 1.20 | 1.20 | 1.20 | 1.20 | 1.20 | 1.20 | 1.20 | 1.20 | 1.20 | 0.69 | 1.39 | 1.20 | 1.20 | 1.20 | 1.20 | 1.20 | 1.20 | 0.69 | 1.20 | 1.20 | 1.20 | 1.20 | 1.20 | 0.92 | 1.39 | 1.20 | 1.20 | 1.20 | |
35 | New legal US real-money prediction market at least half as big as Kalshi (5) | 0 | 0.07 | 0.10 | 0.05 | 0.13 | 0.06 | 0.08 | 0.06 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.69 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.11 | 0.01 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.07 | 0.05 | 0.06 | 0.11 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.02 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.05 | 0.03 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.08 | 0.22 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 0.01 | 0.05 | 0.01 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.14 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.01 | 0.11 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.05 | |
36 | New illegal but easy-to-use market satisfying the above (20) | 0 | 0.26 | 0.25 | 0.22 | 0.54 | 0.20 | 0.26 | 0.24 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.29 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.16 | 0.69 | 0.22 | 0.11 | 0.22 | 0.36 | 0.22 | 0.16 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.43 | 0.22 | 0.16 | 0.22 | 0.36 | 0.22 | 0.43 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.11 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.92 | 0.16 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.25 | 0.22 | 0.24 | 0.36 | 0.16 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.16 | 0.11 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.36 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.11 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.16 | 0.22 | 0.29 | 0.40 | 0.36 | 0.22 | 0.16 | 0.51 | 0.22 | 0.51 | 0.22 | 0.51 | 0.01 | 0.11 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.11 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.25 | 0.11 | 0.22 | 0.36 | 0.16 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.22 | |
37 | Future Perfect predictions (sections: US, world, COVID, science/technology, culture) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
38 | Inflation for the year under three percent (FP: 80; SA: 80) | 0 | 0.96 | 0.58 | 1.61 | 0.34 | 0.97 | 0.71 | 0.43 | 1.61 | 0.22 | 0.69 | 0.69 | 1.39 | 0.92 | 2.30 | 0.92 | 0.69 | 0.11 | 0.69 | 2.30 | 0.69 | 0.69 | 1.20 | 0.51 | 1.39 | 0.60 | 1.39 | 0.36 | 2.30 | 1.05 | 0.01 | 0.92 | 0.92 | 1.61 | 1.61 | 0.51 | 0.69 | 1.61 | 0.36 | 1.20 | 0.92 | 1.61 | 0.60 | 0.11 | 0.22 | 1.61 | 2.30 | 0.51 | 0.69 | 1.20 | 0.36 | 0.92 | 1.39 | 1.61 | 0.69 | 2.30 | 1.20 | 0.22 | 2.30 | 0.92 | 1.61 | 0.51 | 0.69 | 0.05 | 0.22 | 0.69 | 0.36 | 0.92 | 0.92 | 1.61 | 0.01 | 1.05 | 1.61 | 0.51 | 1.20 | 1.90 | 0.92 | 0.69 | 1.61 | 0.92 | 0.80 | 1.39 | 0.92 | 0.92 | 0.01 | 0.36 | 1.61 | 1.61 | 0.51 | 0.92 | 0.92 | 1.27 | 2.30 | 0.29 | 0.92 | 1.20 | 1.61 | 0.11 | 2.30 | |
39 | Democrats will lose their majorities in the House and Senate (FP: 95; SA: 90; Matt Yglesias also predicted this event, saying 90) | 0 | 2.29 | 0.84 | 2.30 | 1.31 | 1.54 | 1.95 | 2.13 | 3.00 | 4.61 | 3.00 | 3.00 | 3.00 | 3.00 | 1.90 | 3.00 | 1.20 | 4.61 | 1.20 | 2.30 | 0.69 | 3.00 | 3.00 | 1.61 | 3.00 | 2.30 | 2.30 | 0.92 | 4.61 | 1.61 | 2.30 | 2.30 | 4.61 | 1.61 | 2.66 | 1.61 | 3.00 | 1.47 | 2.30 | 1.61 | 2.30 | 2.30 | 1.90 | 3.00 | 1.90 | 1.90 | 2.30 | 1.61 | 2.30 | 1.39 | 2.30 | 1.90 | 2.12 | 2.30 | 2.30 | 3.91 | 2.30 | 1.14 | 3.00 | 0.36 | 1.90 | 0.92 | 2.30 | 1.90 | 1.90 | 2.30 | 1.90 | 2.30 | 1.90 | 2.66 | 1.20 | 1.61 | 2.30 | 2.21 | 3.00 | 3.91 | 1.61 | 2.30 | 2.30 | 1.90 | 3.00 | 4.61 | 3.00 | 2.30 | 4.61 | 0.29 | 1.61 | 2.30 | 2.30 | 1.90 | 2.30 | 1.83 | 2.30 | 1.20 | 2.30 | 1.61 | 2.66 | 4.61 | 0.69 | |
40 | Supreme Court will overturn Roe v. Wade (FP: 65; SA: 60) | 1 | 0.69 | 0.52 | 0.51 | 0.78 | 0.65 | 0.62 | 0.71 | 0.51 | 0.36 | 0.29 | 0.51 | 0.29 | 0.36 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.36 | 1.39 | 0.51 | 0.29 | 0.51 | 0.69 | 0.92 | 0.69 | 0.16 | 0.16 | 0.36 | 0.92 | 0.36 | 0.69 | 0.69 | 0.29 | 0.69 | 0.69 | 0.51 | 0.43 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.69 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.60 | 2.30 | 0.43 | 0.60 | 0.92 | 0.36 | 0.69 | 0.69 | 0.11 | 0.69 | 0.60 | 1.61 | 0.69 | 0.92 | 0.51 | 0.43 | 0.51 | 0.60 | 0.60 | 0.51 | 0.36 | 0.22 | 1.39 | 0.51 | 1.39 | 0.36 | 0.92 | 0.46 | 1.61 | 0.69 | 0.51 | 0.92 | 0.51 | 0.29 | 0.69 | 0.69 | 0.29 | 1.20 | 0.29 | 0.29 | 0.51 | 0.29 | 0.36 | 0.69 | 0.69 | 0.51 | 0.29 | 0.36 | 0.69 | 0.73 | 0.69 | 0.92 | 0.36 | 0.60 | 0.51 | 1.61 | 0.01 | |
41 | Emmanuel Macron will be reelected president of France (FP: 65; SA: 65) | 1 | 0.42 | 0.26 | 0.43 | 0.26 | 0.31 | 0.40 | 0.33 | 0.43 | 0.69 | 0.43 | 0.43 | 0.43 | 0.51 | 0.43 | 0.29 | 0.36 | 0.29 | 0.29 | 0.43 | 0.43 | 0.69 | 0.43 | 0.43 | 0.36 | 0.69 | 0.43 | 0.69 | 0.22 | 0.69 | 0.22 | 0.43 | 0.60 | 0.43 | 0.43 | 0.51 | 0.29 | 0.43 | 0.43 | 0.36 | 0.43 | 0.43 | 0.51 | 0.36 | 0.43 | 0.43 | 0.43 | 0.36 | 0.29 | 0.36 | 0.16 | 0.22 | 0.43 | 0.43 | 0.43 | 0.22 | 0.36 | 0.43 | 0.43 | 0.16 | 0.29 | 0.51 | 0.29 | 0.43 | 0.43 | 0.51 | 0.43 | 0.43 | 0.29 | 0.36 | 0.92 | 0.60 | 0.43 | 0.43 | 0.43 | 0.36 | 0.43 | 0.43 | 0.43 | 0.43 | 0.22 | 0.29 | 0.43 | 0.43 | 0.43 | 0.43 | 0.43 | 0.43 | 0.16 | 0.43 | 0.43 | 0.43 | 0.43 | 0.43 | 0.60 | 0.36 | 0.43 | 0.22 | 0.22 | |
42 | Jair Bolsonaro will be reelected president of Brazil (FP: 55; SA: 50) | 0 | 0.68 | 0.34 | 0.69 | 0.33 | 0.51 | 0.63 | 0.57 | 0.69 | 1.20 | 1.05 | 0.80 | 0.80 | 0.80 | 0.69 | 0.51 | 0.22 | 1.05 | 0.51 | 0.43 | 0.69 | 0.51 | 0.92 | 0.69 | 0.69 | 0.60 | 0.80 | 0.69 | 0.51 | 1.20 | 0.22 | 0.80 | 0.16 | 0.29 | 0.16 | 0.43 | 0.36 | 0.69 | 0.69 | 0.60 | 0.69 | 0.69 | 0.36 | 1.05 | 0.69 | 0.73 | 0.69 | 0.60 | 0.51 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.43 | 0.76 | 0.69 | 0.60 | 0.92 | 0.36 | 0.22 | 0.69 | 0.60 | 0.92 | 0.69 | 0.51 | 0.69 | 0.69 | 0.69 | 0.69 | 0.60 | 0.36 | 0.76 | 0.92 | 0.92 | 0.69 | 0.51 | 0.60 | 0.60 | 0.69 | 0.69 | 0.51 | 0.92 | 0.51 | 0.69 | 0.60 | 0.92 | 0.69 | 0.69 | 0.69 | 0.69 | 0.51 | 0.69 | 0.69 | 0.58 | 0.69 | 0.36 | 0.69 | 0.05 | 0.69 | 0.11 | 1.39 | |
43 | Bongbong Marcos will be elected president of the Philippines (FP: 55; SA: 60) | 1 | 0.55 | 0.20 | 0.51 | 0.27 | 0.54 | 0.55 | 0.58 | 0.51 | 0.69 | 0.51 | 0.60 | 0.60 | 0.60 | 0.51 | 0.60 | 0.60 | 0.69 | 0.60 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.69 | 0.51 | 0.60 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.60 | 0.69 | 0.51 | 0.36 | 0.69 | 0.60 | 0.36 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.36 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.43 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.80 | 0.51 | 0.56 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.36 | 0.29 | 0.80 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.36 | 0.51 | 0.56 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.43 | 0.36 | 0.42 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.80 | 0.51 | 0.54 | 0.36 | 0.60 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.60 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.60 | 0.51 | 0.29 | 0.36 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.36 | 0.51 | 0.69 | 0.43 | 0.51 | 0.36 | 0.51 | |
44 | China will NOT reopen its borders at any point during the first half of 2022 (FP: 80; SA: 90) | 1 | 0.18 | 0.22 | 0.11 | 0.02 | 0.15 | 0.18 | 0.16 | 0.05 | 0.69 | 0.05 | 0.22 | 0.05 | 0.16 | 0.11 | 0.05 | 0.29 | 2.30 | 0.22 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.22 | 0.11 | 0.13 | 0.05 | 0.16 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.16 | 0.16 | 0.01 | 0.36 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.16 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.22 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.16 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.13 | 0.11 | 0.16 | 0.22 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.05 | 0.01 | 0.11 | 0.14 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.16 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 0.05 | 0.16 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.16 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.22 | 0.05 | 0.51 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 0.22 | 0.05 | 0.01 | 0.11 | 0.22 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.36 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.15 | 0.16 | 0.11 | 0.29 | 0.05 | 0.14 | 0.01 | 0.05 | |
45 | Chinese GDP will continue to grow for the first 3/4 of the year (FP: 95; SA: 90) | 1 | 0.12 | 0.19 | 0.11 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.06 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.11 | 0.05 | 0.01 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.16 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.16 | 0.01 | 0.05 | 0.08 | 0.11 | 0.16 | 0.22 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.22 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.01 | 0.11 | 0.08 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 0.16 | 0.01 | 0.11 | 0.06 | 0.11 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.01 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 0.05 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.11 | 0.05 | 0.01 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.29 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 0.16 | 0.11 | 0.29 | 0.22 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 0.01 | 0.11 | |
46 | 20% of US kids between 0.5 and 5 years old will get at least one COVID vaccine by year's end (FP: 65; SA: 65) | 0 | 1.14 | 0.53 | 1.05 | 0.82 | 1.09 | 1.03 | 1.13 | 1.05 | 1.20 | 3.00 | 1.05 | 1.39 | 1.05 | 1.05 | 1.05 | 0.92 | 2.30 | 1.61 | 0.69 | 4.61 | 1.61 | 1.20 | 1.05 | 1.05 | 0.92 | 1.20 | 1.05 | 1.39 | 1.39 | 1.39 | 1.39 | 1.61 | 1.05 | 1.05 | 0.51 | 1.05 | 1.39 | 1.05 | 1.20 | 1.05 | 1.05 | 1.39 | 1.20 | 1.05 | 1.05 | 1.05 | 0.92 | 1.05 | 1.05 | 1.39 | 1.20 | 1.05 | 1.05 | 0.92 | 1.61 | 1.05 | 0.69 | 1.20 | 1.39 | 1.20 | 1.20 | 0.69 | 0.11 | 1.05 | 1.05 | 1.05 | 1.20 | 0.69 | 0.69 | 1.61 | 0.92 | 1.05 | 1.20 | 0.80 | 1.20 | 0.92 | 1.05 | 1.39 | 0.92 | 0.36 | 4.61 | 1.20 | 1.39 | 1.05 | 0.36 | 1.39 | 1.05 | 1.39 | 1.05 | 1.05 | 1.05 | 1.05 | 1.20 | 1.39 | 1.20 | 1.05 | 2.30 | 1.90 | |
47 | WHO will designate another Variant Of Concern (FP: 75; SA: 75) | 0 | 1.70 | 0.71 | 1.39 | 1.43 | 1.31 | 1.57 | 1.93 | 1.39 | 2.30 | 3.00 | 1.39 | 1.39 | 1.61 | 1.39 | 1.39 | 1.61 | 4.61 | 1.61 | 1.39 | 1.39 | 2.30 | 2.30 | 1.61 | 1.90 | 1.61 | 1.61 | 1.61 | 1.90 | 1.61 | 1.61 | 1.61 | 4.61 | 1.39 | 1.61 | 1.61 | 1.61 | 1.39 | 1.39 | 1.61 | 1.39 | 1.39 | 1.61 | 2.30 | 1.39 | 1.56 | 1.90 | 1.61 | 1.61 | 1.61 | 1.39 | 1.61 | 1.39 | 1.39 | 1.39 | 0.51 | 1.39 | 2.30 | 1.61 | 1.39 | 1.20 | 0.92 | 1.20 | 2.30 | 1.39 | 1.39 | 1.39 | 2.30 | 1.90 | 2.30 | 4.61 | 1.61 | 1.39 | 1.61 | 1.61 | 1.61 | 1.61 | 1.39 | 1.39 | 2.30 | 3.00 | 4.61 | 1.39 | 1.61 | 3.00 | 4.61 | 1.61 | 1.39 | 1.90 | 1.39 | 1.39 | 1.66 | 1.39 | 1.90 | 1.90 | 1.61 | 1.39 | 0.22 | 2.30 | |
48 | 12 billion COVID shots will be given out globally by November 1st (FP: 80; SA: 80) | 1 | 0.23 | 0.21 | 0.22 | 0.08 | 0.14 | 0.21 | 0.15 | 0.22 | 0.69 | 0.22 | 0.16 | 0.22 | 0.16 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.01 | 0.05 | 0.22 | 0.36 | 0.22 | 0.11 | 0.22 | 0.29 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.11 | 0.22 | 0.11 | 0.22 | 0.05 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.11 | 0.22 | 0.16 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.11 | 0.22 | 0.11 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.03 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.16 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.11 | 0.22 | 0.04 | 0.16 | 0.36 | 0.16 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.36 | 0.22 | 0.29 | 0.22 | 0.11 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.11 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.16 | 0.01 | 0.29 | 0.22 | 0.01 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.05 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.31 | 0.22 | 0.43 | 0.29 | 0.11 | 0.29 | 0.22 | 0.11 | |
49 | At least one country will have less than 10% of people vaccinated with two shots by November 1st (FP: 70; SA: 95) | 1 | 0.11 | 0.15 | 0.05 | 0.21 | 0.12 | 0.11 | 0.09 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.05 | 0.16 | 0.11 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.13 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.01 | 0.05 | 0.01 | 0.11 | 0.05 | 0.01 | 0.22 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.16 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 0.22 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.16 | 0.22 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.16 | 0.11 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.01 | 0.11 | 0.04 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 0.01 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 0.04 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 0.05 | 0.01 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.01 | 0.11 | 0.01 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.01 | 0.05 | 0.01 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.01 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.16 | 0.05 | 0.04 | 0.11 | 0.04 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.01 | |
50 | A psychedelic drug will be decriminalized/legalized in at least one more US state (FP: 75; SA: 75) | 1 | 0.36 | 0.34 | 0.29 | 0.56 | 0.29 | 0.34 | 0.34 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.69 | 0.29 | 0.29 | 0.22 | 0.29 | 0.29 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.43 | 0.11 | 0.29 | 0.22 | 0.29 | 0.36 | 0.60 | 0.29 | 0.22 | 0.29 | 0.16 | 0.16 | 0.51 | 0.43 | 0.22 | 0.29 | 0.29 | 0.16 | 0.22 | 0.29 | 0.29 | 0.22 | 0.29 | 0.29 | 0.29 | 0.05 | 0.29 | 0.29 | 0.29 | 0.22 | 0.29 | 0.51 | 0.29 | 0.36 | 0.31 | 0.29 | 0.29 | 0.05 | 0.29 | 0.22 | 0.36 | 0.29 | 0.29 | 0.29 | 0.22 | 0.05 | 0.29 | 0.29 | 0.29 | 0.29 | 0.16 | 0.43 | 0.51 | 0.36 | 0.29 | 0.69 | 0.29 | 0.22 | 0.29 | 0.29 | 0.29 | 0.22 | 0.29 | 0.69 | 0.11 | 0.29 | 0.01 | 0.16 | 0.29 | 0.29 | 0.22 | 0.29 | 0.92 | 0.19 | 0.29 | 0.29 | 0.43 | 0.16 | 0.29 | 0.11 | 0.29 | |
51 | AI will discover a new drug promising enough for clinical trials (FP: 85; SA: 85) | 1 | 0.28 | 0.33 | 0.16 | 0.34 | 0.30 | 0.28 | 0.29 | 0.16 | 1.20 | 0.43 | 0.16 | 0.16 | 0.22 | 0.16 | 0.16 | 0.43 | 3.00 | 0.36 | 0.11 | 0.16 | 0.11 | 0.16 | 0.22 | 0.16 | 0.29 | 0.60 | 0.16 | 0.16 | 0.43 | 0.11 | 0.16 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.51 | 0.16 | 0.16 | 0.16 | 0.22 | 0.16 | 0.16 | 0.16 | 0.16 | 0.16 | 0.19 | 0.92 | 0.22 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.16 | 0.22 | 0.16 | 0.16 | 0.16 | 0.11 | 0.16 | 0.16 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.05 | 0.22 | 0.16 | 0.16 | 0.16 | 0.69 | 0.01 | 0.29 | 0.11 | 1.61 | 0.16 | 0.16 | 0.14 | 0.16 | 0.16 | 0.11 | 0.16 | 0.36 | 0.29 | 0.29 | 0.69 | 0.11 | 0.16 | 1.39 | 0.16 | 0.16 | 0.16 | 0.16 | 0.16 | 0.69 | 0.24 | 0.29 | 0.16 | 0.60 | 0.16 | 0.11 | 0.01 | 0.03 | |
52 | US government will NOT renew the ban on funding gain-of-function research (FP: 60; SA: 60) | 1 | 0.60 | 0.35 | 0.51 | 0.31 | 0.47 | 0.58 | 0.64 | 0.51 | 0.69 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.29 | 0.92 | 0.51 | 0.22 | 0.69 | 2.30 | 0.92 | 0.36 | 0.51 | 0.69 | 0.51 | 0.69 | 0.60 | 0.60 | 0.36 | 0.51 | 0.29 | 0.29 | 1.20 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 1.20 | 0.51 | 0.92 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 1.20 | 0.43 | 0.92 | 0.51 | 0.92 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.60 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.36 | 0.46 | 0.51 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.51 | 0.92 | 0.69 | 0.51 | 0.43 | 0.51 | 0.92 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.60 | 0.69 | 0.43 | 1.61 | 0.43 | 0.51 | 0.43 | 0.51 | 0.36 | 0.69 | 0.51 | 0.92 | 0.51 | 1.20 | 4.61 | 1.05 | 0.51 | 0.01 | 1.05 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.92 | 0.51 | 0.92 | 0.36 | 0.49 | 0.51 | 1.61 | 0.29 | |
53 | The Biden administration will set the social cost of carbon at $100/ton or more (FP: 70; SA: 70) | - | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
54 | 2022 will be warmer than 2021 (FP: 80; SA: 80) | 1 | 0.27 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.36 | 0.35 | 0.26 | 0.20 | 0.22 | 0.69 | 0.05 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.36 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.29 | 0.05 | 0.36 | 0.29 | 0.51 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.36 | 0.11 | 0.22 | 0.11 | 0.51 | 0.29 | 0.36 | 1.61 | 0.22 | 0.01 | 0.11 | 0.22 | 0.43 | 0.16 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.36 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.36 | 0.11 | 0.29 | 0.69 | 0.22 | 0.36 | 0.51 | 0.36 | 0.22 | 0.29 | 0.29 | 0.22 | 0.36 | 0.16 | 0.22 | 0.08 | 0.36 | 0.22 | 0.16 | 0.11 | 0.43 | 0.11 | 0.08 | 0.11 | 0.36 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.22 | 0.11 | 0.29 | 0.22 | 0.36 | 0.22 | 0.11 | 0.69 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.16 | 0.22 | 0.01 | 0.51 | 0.22 | 0.11 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.05 | 0.22 | 0.36 | 0.46 | 0.22 | 0.69 | 0.16 | 0.16 | 0.22 | 0.01 | 0.16 | |
55 | Kenneth Branagh's Belfast will win Best Picture (FP: 55; SA: 30) | 0 | 0.40 | 0.18 | 0.36 | 0.45 | 0.38 | 0.40 | 0.39 | 0.29 | 0.69 | 0.36 | 0.51 | 0.36 | 0.29 | 0.29 | 0.51 | 0.29 | 0.29 | 0.36 | 0.69 | 0.36 | 0.43 | 0.36 | 0.51 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.22 | 0.36 | 0.29 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.16 | 0.29 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.69 | 0.22 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.16 | 0.36 | 0.43 | 0.36 | 0.39 | 0.69 | 0.29 | 0.36 | 0.51 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.22 | 0.43 | 0.22 | 0.51 | 0.36 | 1.20 | 0.36 | 0.69 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.42 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.43 | 0.51 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.51 | 0.29 | 0.01 | 0.92 | 0.36 | 0.01 | 0.11 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.60 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.43 | 0.22 | 0.36 | 0.29 | 0.60 | 0.36 | 0.11 | 0.80 | |
56 | Yglesias predictions | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
57 | Democrats lose at least two Senate seats (MY: 80; SA: 80) | 0 | 1.83 | 0.71 | 1.61 | 0.76 | 1.28 | 1.67 | 2.04 | 1.61 | 2.30 | 3.00 | 1.61 | 2.30 | 1.61 | 1.20 | 1.61 | 1.05 | 4.61 | 0.92 | 1.61 | 1.61 | 1.61 | 1.61 | 1.39 | 2.30 | 2.30 | 1.90 | 1.39 | 2.30 | 1.61 | 3.00 | 2.30 | 4.61 | 1.61 | 1.90 | 1.61 | 1.90 | 1.20 | 1.61 | 1.20 | 1.61 | 1.61 | 1.20 | 3.00 | 1.61 | 1.90 | 2.30 | 1.20 | 1.61 | 1.05 | 1.61 | 1.90 | 1.61 | 1.61 | 1.90 | 3.00 | 1.39 | 1.02 | 1.90 | 1.61 | 1.61 | 1.39 | 1.90 | 2.30 | 2.30 | 1.61 | 1.61 | 1.61 | 1.39 | 1.61 | 4.61 | 1.90 | 1.61 | 1.39 | 2.30 | 1.90 | 1.61 | 1.61 | 1.61 | 1.90 | 2.30 | 4.61 | 1.61 | 1.61 | 4.61 | 0.36 | 1.61 | 1.61 | 3.00 | 1.39 | 1.61 | 1.39 | 2.30 | 1.61 | 2.30 | 1.39 | 1.61 | 4.61 | 0.16 | |
58 | Democrats lose fewer than six Senate seats (MY: 80; SA: 80) | 1 | 0.22 | 0.15 | 0.22 | 0.08 | 0.13 | 0.20 | 0.14 | 0.11 | 0.69 | 0.05 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.11 | 0.22 | 0.16 | 0.01 | 0.11 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.11 | 0.22 | 0.16 | 0.16 | 0.22 | 0.11 | 0.22 | 0.11 | 0.22 | 0.05 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.22 | 0.16 | 0.11 | 0.16 | 0.16 | 0.22 | 0.11 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.22 | 0.16 | 0.22 | 0.36 | 0.22 | 0.11 | 0.22 | 0.16 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.36 | 0.29 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.29 | 0.22 | 0.11 | 0.29 | 0.29 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.11 | 0.22 | 0.36 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.16 | 0.36 | 0.11 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.51 | 0.11 | 0.69 | 0.11 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.01 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.29 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.29 | 0.11 | 0.36 | 0.29 | 0.16 | 0.22 | 0.01 | 0.01 | |
59 | Nancy Pelosi announces retirement plans (MY: 70; SA: 70) | - | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
60 | Joe Biden is still president (MY: 90; SA: 90) | 1 | 0.11 | 0.30 | 0.11 | 0.09 | 0.08 | 0.09 | 0.05 | 0.01 | 0.36 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.08 | 0.01 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.01 | 0.05 | 0.22 | 0.05 | 0.01 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 0.05 | 0.16 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 0.16 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.16 | 0.08 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 0.16 | 0.11 | 0.04 | 0.11 | 0.05 | 0.36 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 0.22 | 0.05 | 0.01 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 4.61 | 0.01 | 0.16 | 0.11 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 0.05 | 0.07 | 0.01 | 0.16 | 0.16 | 0.09 | 0.07 | 0.01 | 0.05 | |
61 | At least one Biden cabinet-rank official resigns (MY: 70; SA: 70) | 1 | 0.37 | 0.27 | 0.36 | 0.34 | 0.35 | 0.28 | 0.36 | 0.22 | 0.05 | 0.36 | 0.22 | 0.16 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.22 | 0.11 | 0.36 | 0.16 | 0.36 | 0.51 | 0.36 | 0.33 | 0.22 | 0.60 | 0.51 | 0.36 | 0.22 | 0.51 | 0.11 | 0.51 | 0.60 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.29 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.22 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.16 | 0.36 | 0.25 | 0.22 | 0.43 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.51 | 0.29 | 0.43 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.43 | 0.51 | 0.36 | 0.43 | 0.51 | 0.92 | 0.51 | 0.25 | 0.11 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.16 | 0.69 | 0.36 | 1.61 | 0.43 | 0.36 | 0.16 | 0.29 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.29 | 0.16 | 0.29 | 0.36 | 0.51 | 0.01 | 0.43 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.43 | 0.36 | 0.16 | 0.30 | 0.36 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.71 | 0.36 | 0.22 | 0.22 | ||
62 | No military conflict between the PRC and Taiwan (MY: 90; SA: 90) | 1 | 0.13 | 0.18 | 0.11 | 0.12 | 0.09 | 0.12 | 0.07 | 0.05 | 0.36 | 0.69 | 0.11 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.05 | 0.92 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.13 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 0.05 | 0.16 | 0.22 | 0.11 | 0.16 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 0.36 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 0.43 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 0.16 | 0.22 | 0.08 | 0.05 | 0.16 | 0.03 | 0.11 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.09 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 0.51 | 0.11 | 0.07 | 0.16 | 0.11 | 0.06 | 0.05 | 1.61 | 0.22 | 0.11 | 0.07 | 0.11 | 0.36 | 0.22 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 0.16 | 0.05 | 0.01 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 0.01 | 0.05 | 0.16 | 0.11 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 0.05 | 0.08 | 0.11 | 0.22 | 0.05 | 0.09 | 0.11 | 1.61 | 0.03 | |
63 | Saudi Arabia and Israel establish diplomatic relations (MY: 60; SA: 50) | 0 | 0.71 | 0.36 | 0.69 | 0.58 | 0.66 | 0.62 | 0.69 | 0.69 | 0.69 | 0.80 | 0.80 | 0.80 | 0.69 | 0.51 | 0.69 | 0.43 | 0.92 | 0.69 | 0.69 | 0.51 | 0.69 | 0.73 | 0.80 | 0.69 | 0.69 | 0.51 | 0.80 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.92 | 0.69 | 0.69 | 0.69 | 0.92 | 0.80 | 0.92 | 0.69 | 1.05 | 0.36 | 0.69 | 1.05 | 0.60 | 0.69 | 1.05 | 1.61 | 1.20 | 0.80 | 0.69 | 0.36 | 0.80 | 0.69 | 0.69 | 0.80 | 0.69 | 0.51 | 0.69 | 0.69 | 0.60 | 0.60 | 0.36 | 1.08 | 0.69 | 0.69 | 0.69 | 0.69 | 0.80 | 0.51 | 0.60 | 0.22 | 0.69 | 0.69 | 0.43 | 0.51 | 1.05 | 0.69 | 0.51 | 0.69 | 0.69 | 0.29 | 0.01 | 0.92 | 0.51 | 0.69 | 1.05 | 0.69 | 0.69 | 1.39 | 0.69 | 0.43 | 0.43 | 0.51 | 0.69 | 0.60 | 0.80 | 0.92 | 0.69 | 1.90 | ||
64 | Fewer US Covid deaths in 2022 than in 2021 (MY: 80; SA: 90) | 1 | 0.13 | 0.23 | 0.11 | 0.04 | 0.12 | 0.12 | 0.07 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.29 | 0.16 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.22 | 0.16 | 0.16 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.22 | 0.11 | 0.43 | 0.11 | 0.22 | 0.11 | 0.01 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 0.05 | 0.01 | 0.11 | 0.07 | 0.11 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.05 | 0.16 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 0.06 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.16 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.29 | 0.05 | 0.16 | 0.03 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.02 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.03 | 0.11 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 0.51 | 0.16 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 0.08 | 0.11 | 0.16 | 0.05 | 0.01 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.01 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 0.19 | 0.22 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.01 | 0.08 | 0.01 | 0.02 | |
65 | Emmanuel Macron re-elected (MY: 60; SA: 60) | - | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
66 | Liz Cheney loses primary (MY: 80; SA: 80) | 1 | 0.26 | 0.25 | 0.22 | 0.26 | 0.25 | 0.25 | 0.21 | 0.22 | 0.69 | 0.05 | 0.22 | 0.11 | 0.16 | 0.11 | 0.22 | 0.51 | 0.43 | 0.43 | 0.29 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.14 | 0.29 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.11 | 0.51 | 0.22 | 0.11 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.29 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.16 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.29 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.51 | 0.11 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.16 | 0.02 | 0.16 | 0.29 | 0.16 | 0.11 | 0.51 | 0.22 | 0.05 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.16 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.22 | 0.29 | 0.22 | 0.29 | 0.22 | 0.11 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.11 | 0.16 | 0.69 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.60 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.05 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.26 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.29 | 0.36 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.05 | |
67 | Some version of USICA passes Congress (MY: 70; SA: 70) | 1 | 0.37 | 0.12 | 0.36 | 0.22 | 0.36 | 0.37 | 0.34 | 0.36 | 0.69 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.43 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.43 | 1.61 | 0.22 | 0.29 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.43 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.29 | 0.29 | 0.22 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.29 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.22 | 0.36 | 0.22 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.22 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.51 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.22 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.43 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.29 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.69 | 0.36 | 0.29 | 0.36 | 0.51 | 0.36 | 0.43 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.29 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.37 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.43 | 0.29 | 0.36 | 0.01 | 0.11 | |
68 | Lula elected president of Brazil (MY: 60; SA: 50) | 1 | 0.66 | 0.27 | 0.69 | 0.36 | 0.47 | 0.60 | 0.53 | 0.69 | 2.30 | 0.69 | 0.60 | 0.69 | 0.51 | 0.69 | 0.60 | 0.43 | 0.69 | 0.51 | 0.29 | 0.69 | 0.69 | 0.69 | 0.62 | 0.69 | 0.69 | 0.69 | 0.69 | 0.43 | 1.20 | 0.11 | 0.51 | 0.16 | 0.43 | 0.16 | 0.51 | 0.29 | 0.69 | 0.69 | 0.92 | 0.69 | 0.51 | 0.29 | 1.05 | 0.69 | 0.60 | 0.69 | 0.60 | 0.51 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.43 | 0.69 | 0.69 | 0.43 | 0.92 | 0.36 | 0.69 | 0.69 | 0.80 | 0.80 | 0.51 | 0.60 | 0.69 | 0.69 | 0.69 | 0.60 | 0.69 | 0.51 | 0.71 | 0.69 | 0.69 | 0.69 | 0.43 | 0.69 | 0.60 | 0.69 | 0.69 | 0.92 | 0.69 | 0.43 | 0.29 | 0.69 | 0.51 | 0.69 | 0.69 | 0.69 | 0.69 | 0.92 | 0.69 | 0.69 | 0.82 | 0.69 | 0.80 | 0.69 | 0.11 | 0.69 | 0.22 | 1.05 | |
69 | China officially abandons Covid Zero (MY: 70; SA: 70) | 1 | 0.53 | 0.45 | 0.36 | 0.30 | 0.55 | 0.52 | 0.61 | 0.51 | 0.22 | 0.05 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.43 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.69 | 1.61 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.69 | 0.36 | 0.43 | 0.80 | 0.36 | 0.51 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.69 | 1.20 | 0.36 | 0.29 | 0.92 | 0.36 | 0.69 | 0.29 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.29 | 0.69 | 0.36 | 0.80 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.11 | 0.43 | 0.22 | 0.51 | 0.36 | 0.29 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.80 | 0.80 | 0.43 | 0.69 | 0.29 | 0.36 | 0.43 | 0.16 | 0.69 | 0.16 | 0.36 | 0.69 | 1.05 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.51 | 1.61 | 0.29 | 0.36 | 0.43 | 0.22 | 0.29 | 0.69 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.51 | 0.69 | 0.69 | 0.22 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.11 | 0.43 | 0.36 | 0.56 | 0.29 | 0.36 | 0.92 | 0.34 | 0.36 | 4.61 | 1.05 | |
70 | Additional booster shots of mRNA vaccines authorized for seniors (MY: 80; SA: 80) | 1 | 0.18 | 0.09 | 0.22 | 0.20 | 0.15 | 0.10 | 0.22 | 0.36 | 0.05 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.16 | 0.22 | 0.11 | 0.16 | 0.01 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.22 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.16 | 0.05 | 0.16 | 0.11 | 0.22 | 0.11 | 0.22 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.11 | 0.16 | 0.16 | 0.22 | 0.16 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.36 | 0.11 | 0.05 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.16 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.20 | 0.16 | 0.11 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.16 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.11 | 0.22 | 0.36 | 0.01 | 0.16 | 0.22 | 0.29 | 0.22 | 0.16 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.11 | 0.05 | 0.01 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.11 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.05 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.14 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.11 | 0.16 | 0.11 | 0.22 | 0.11 | ||
71 | The Fed ends up doing more than its currently forecast three interest rate hikes (MY: 60; SA: 60) | 1 | 0.58 | 0.34 | 0.51 | 0.17 | 0.56 | 0.55 | 0.57 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 1.39 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 1.20 | 0.22 | 0.69 | 1.20 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.43 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.69 | 0.16 | 1.61 | 0.36 | 0.60 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.92 | 0.43 | 0.29 | 0.51 | 0.43 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.80 | 0.92 | 0.92 | 0.51 | 0.22 | 0.60 | 0.69 | 0.69 | 0.51 | 0.36 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.43 | 0.36 | 0.51 | 1.20 | 0.69 | 0.51 | 0.69 | 0.69 | 0.92 | 0.51 | 0.05 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.69 | 0.69 | 0.69 | 0.51 | 0.43 | 0.51 | 0.36 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.69 | 0.29 | 0.92 | 4.61 | 0.92 | 0.51 | 0.16 | 1.05 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 1.20 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.48 | 0.36 | 0.51 | 0.69 | 0.43 | 0.51 | 1.61 | 0.29 | |
72 | Viktor Orbán loses power in Hungary (MY: 60; SA: 60) | 0 | 0.76 | 0.30 | 0.92 | 0.30 | 0.77 | 0.65 | 0.53 | 0.92 | 0.22 | 0.92 | 0.92 | 0.92 | 0.80 | 0.92 | 0.92 | 0.43 | 0.22 | 0.69 | 0.51 | 0.69 | 0.69 | 0.92 | 0.60 | 0.92 | 0.92 | 0.69 | 0.92 | 1.39 | 0.69 | 0.22 | 0.92 | 0.80 | 0.92 | 0.92 | 0.60 | 0.51 | 0.92 | 0.92 | 0.69 | 0.92 | 0.92 | 0.92 | 1.20 | 0.92 | 0.60 | 0.51 | 0.80 | 0.69 | 0.43 | 0.51 | 0.80 | 0.76 | 0.92 | 0.92 | 0.36 | 0.80 | 0.92 | 0.92 | 0.51 | 0.80 | 0.51 | 0.92 | 0.92 | 0.11 | 0.69 | 0.92 | 0.51 | 0.69 | 0.80 | 0.92 | 1.05 | 0.92 | 0.69 | 0.92 | 0.60 | 0.92 | 0.92 | 0.92 | 0.92 | 0.60 | 0.69 | 0.92 | 0.92 | 0.92 | 0.16 | 0.92 | 0.92 | 0.69 | 0.92 | 0.92 | 0.80 | 0.69 | 0.92 | 0.69 | 1.05 | 0.92 | 0.51 | 0.51 | |
73 | Sinn Fein becomes the largest party in the Northern Ireland assembly (MY: 60; SA: 60) | 1 | 0.52 | 0.15 | 0.51 | 0.22 | 0.41 | 0.51 | 0.49 | 0.51 | 0.69 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.60 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.36 | 0.22 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.43 | 0.69 | 0.69 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.39 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.36 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.29 | 0.43 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.43 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.11 | 0.51 | 0.36 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.36 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.80 | 0.29 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.29 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.49 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.69 | 0.43 | 0.51 | 0.69 | 0.92 | |
74 | Democrats lose at least one governor on net (MY: 60; SA: 60) | 0 | 1.13 | 0.52 | 0.92 | 1.43 | 0.87 | 1.12 | 1.35 | 0.92 | 1.61 | 0.69 | 0.92 | 1.05 | 1.20 | 0.92 | 0.92 | 1.05 | 1.61 | 0.92 | 1.39 | 0.92 | 1.20 | 0.92 | 0.84 | 0.80 | 1.39 | 1.39 | 0.92 | 1.61 | 1.05 | 1.61 | 1.20 | 0.80 | 0.92 | 0.92 | 1.17 | 1.20 | 0.92 | 0.92 | 0.92 | 0.92 | 0.92 | 0.92 | 1.61 | 0.92 | 0.92 | 0.92 | 1.05 | 1.20 | 0.92 | 0.92 | 1.05 | 0.92 | 0.92 | 1.05 | 1.20 | 1.61 | 1.20 | 1.05 | 0.92 | 0.80 | 1.20 | 1.39 | 0.92 | 1.61 | 0.92 | 1.05 | 1.61 | 1.20 | 0.92 | 0.92 | 1.05 | 0.92 | 0.51 | 0.92 | 1.39 | 0.92 | 0.92 | 1.20 | 1.20 | 1.05 | 4.61 | 1.39 | 0.92 | 1.39 | 0.22 | 0.92 | 0.92 | 1.39 | 0.92 | 0.92 | 0.99 | 0.92 | 0.92 | 1.39 | 0.51 | 0.92 | 1.61 | 0.36 | |
75 | Total Score (lower is better) | 39.33 | 6.56 | 37.96 | - | 33.10 | 35.29 | 34.80 | 37.03 | 50.47 | 47.12 | 37.81 | 37.70 | 40.07 | 40.92 | 35.46 | 34.44 | 71.64 | 33.41 | 34.80 | 36.86 | 41.62 | 39.11 | 35.10 | 41.13 | 37.64 | 39.54 | 33.88 | 42.54 | 33.16 | 39.74 | 37.97 | 50.56 | 37.15 | 38.99 | 36.79 | 36.97 | 36.48 | 36.71 | 33.77 | 38.65 | 37.78 | 38.45 | 42.26 | 34.56 | 36.52 | 39.37 | 34.95 | 35.84 | 34.70 | 32.73 | 35.85 | 37.98 | 41.49 | 33.20 | 41.64 | 35.41 | 36.25 | 38.29 | 33.76 | 36.15 | 29.02 | 37.14 | 41.07 | 43.69 | 36.96 | 35.94 | 39.76 | 34.96 | 37.10 | 48.87 | 38.62 | 38.26 | 38.27 | 40.04 | 40.63 | 40.99 | 36.42 | 38.67 | 39.51 | 39.22 | 74.47 | 36.85 | 38.56 | 63.80 | 36.07 | 37.81 | 39.57 | 39.59 | 33.78 | 37.13 | 39.41 | 41.50 | 34.45 | 43.63 | 37.03 | 37.66 | 45.48 | 50.52 | ||
76 | Percentile (higher is better) | - | - | 51 | 97 | 84 | 88 | 66 | 5 | 7 | 52 | 55 | 27 | 21 | 83 | 91 | 1 | 96 | 88 | 69 | 18 | 35 | 86 | 20 | 56 | 32 | 93 | 14 | 96 | 29 | 51 | 4 | 63 | 37 | 70 | 67 | 72 | 71 | 94 | 41 | 53 | 44 | 16 | 89 | 72 | 33 | 87 | 79 | 89 | 97 | 79 | 50 | 19 | 96 | 18 | 84 | 74 | 45 | 94 | 76 | 100 | 64 | 20 | 12 | 67 | 78 | 28 | 87 | 65 | 6 | 42 | 46 | 46 | 27 | 24 | 21 | 73 | 41 | 32 | 34 | 1 | 69 | 43 | 1 | 76 | 52 | 31 | 31 | 94 | 64 | 33 | 19 | 90 | 12 | 67 | 55 | 9 | 4 | |||
77 | Subscore on questions with market prediction | 35.71 | 5.92 | 34.73 | 26.59 | 29.71 | 31.95 | 31.77 | 34.05 | 45.12 | 44.41 | 34.97 | 34.82 | 36.86 | 37.68 | 32.65 | 30.64 | 65.46 | 29.90 | 31.76 | 33.37 | 38.68 | 35.94 | 31.96 | 38.38 | 33.97 | 36.39 | 30.25 | 39.71 | 30.40 | 37.74 | 34.27 | 47.85 | 33.79 | 35.82 | 33.67 | 33.65 | 33.09 | 33.48 | 30.57 | 36.21 | 34.55 | 33.58 | 38.12 | 31.63 | 33.11 | 35.49 | 31.31 | 32.84 | 31.51 | 30.21 | 32.52 | 34.67 | 38.04 | 30.24 | 37.03 | 32.15 | 32.36 | 35.66 | 30.84 | 32.68 | 25.68 | 33.29 | 39.05 | 40.46 | 33.67 | 32.16 | 36.17 | 31.71 | 34.08 | 44.60 | 35.25 | 35.15 | 34.88 | 36.04 | 36.36 | 35.96 | 33.37 | 34.87 | 36.51 | 36.32 | 72.14 | 33.36 | 35.36 | 57.32 | 32.53 | 34.46 | 36.34 | 35.15 | 30.49 | 34.48 | 36.09 | 37.96 | 30.33 | 37.94 | 32.68 | 34.35 | 40.74 | 44.47 | ||
78 | Subscore percentile | - | - | 49 | 100 | 97 | 84 | 85 | 60 | 5 | 6 | 43 | 46 | 24 | 19 | 77 | 94 | 1 | 96 | 85 | 70 | 16 | 32 | 84 | 17 | 61 | 27 | 96 | 12 | 95 | 19 | 56 | 3 | 64 | 33 | 66 | 67 | 71 | 69 | 94 | 28 | 51 | 68 | 17 | 87 | 71 | 36 | 89 | 74 | 88 | 96 | 78 | 49 | 18 | 96 | 23 | 82 | 80 | 34 | 92 | 76 | 100 | 71 | 14 | 10 | 66 | 82 | 30 | 86 | 59 | 6 | 39 | 41 | 45 | 31 | 27 | 32 | 70 | 45 | 26 | 28 | 1 | 70 | 38 | 1 | 78 | 53 | 27 | 41 | 95 | 53 | 30 | 18 | 95 | 18 | 76 | 54 | 10 | 6 | ||
79 | Demographics | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
80 | Used Prediction Markets | No | No | Yes | No | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | No | No | No | No | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | No | No | Yes | No | Yes | No | No | Yes | Yes | No | No | No | Yes | No | No | Yes | Yes | Yes | No | No | No | No | No | Yes | No | No | No | Yes | No | No | Yes | Yes | Yes | No | No | No | No | No | Yes | Yes | No | No | Yes | No | Yes | No | No | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | No | No | No | No | No | No | No | No | No | No | Yes | No | Yes | Yes | No | No | Yes | No | No | No | Yes | ||||||||||||
81 | Superforecaster | No | No | No | No | No | No | No | Yes | No | No | No | No | No | No | No | No | No | No | No | No | No | No | No | No | No | No | No | No | No | No | No | No | Yes | No | No | No | No | No | No | No | No | No | No | No | No | No | No | No | No | No | No | No | No | No | No | No | No | No | No | No | No | No | No | No | No | No | No | No | No | No | No | No | No | No | No | No | No | No | No | No | No | No | No | No | No | No | No | No | ||||||||||||
82 | Length of Time | One to six months | One to six months | More than two years | More than two years | More than two years | Six months to one year | More than two years | More than two years | More than two years | More than two years | One to two years | More than two years | More than two years | More than two years | More than two years | More than two years | One to six months | More than two years | More than two years | More than two years | More than two years | One to six months | More than two years | One to six months | One to two years | More than two years | More than two years | Six months to one year | One to six months | One to two years | More than two years | Six months to one year | Six months to one year | More than two years | Six months to one year | More than two years | More than two years | Six months to one year | More than two years | More than two years | More than two years | More than two years | Six months to one year | More than two years | More than two years | One to two years | More than two years | More than two years | More than two years | More than two years | More than two years | More than two years | More than two years | One to six months | More than two years | More than two years | More than two years | More than two years | More than two years | Six months to one year | One to two years | More than two years | One to six months | More than two years | Six months to one year | More than two years | More than two years | More than two years | One to two years | One to two years | Less than a month | One to two years | More than two years | More than two years | More than two years | Six months to one year | Six months to one year | Six months to one year | More than two years | More than two years | More than two years | Six months to one year | One to two years | More than two years | One to six months | More than two years | Six months to one year | Six months to one year | ||||||||||||
83 | LW ID | No | Sorta | Sorta | Yes | Yes | Sorta | Sorta | Sorta | Sorta | Sorta | Sorta | Yes | Sorta | Yes | Sorta | No | Sorta | Sorta | Sorta | No | No | Sorta | Sorta | Sorta | Yes | No | No | No | Sorta | No | Sorta | Yes | Sorta | Sorta | Sorta | Sorta | No | No | Sorta | Yes | No | Sorta | No | No | Sorta | No | Sorta | No | Sorta | No | Sorta | No | Sorta | Sorta | Sorta | Sorta | No | Sorta | Sorta | Sorta | No | No | Yes | Sorta | Sorta | Sorta | Sorta | No | Sorta | No | No | Sorta | Sorta | Sorta | Yes | Sorta | Sorta | No | No | Sorta | Sorta | Sorta | No | No | Yes | No | No | |||||||||||||
84 | EA ID | Sorta | Sorta | Sorta | Yes | Sorta | Sorta | No | Yes | Sorta | Sorta | Sorta | No | No | Yes | Sorta | No | Sorta | Yes | No | Sorta | No | Sorta | Sorta | Sorta | Sorta | No | Sorta | No | Sorta | Sorta | Yes | Yes | Yes | No | Sorta | Sorta | No | No | Yes | No | Sorta | No | No | Sorta | Sorta | No | Sorta | Sorta | Sorta | No | Yes | No | No | No | Yes | Sorta | No | Yes | Sorta | No | No | No | Sorta | No | Sorta | Yes | Sorta | Sorta | No | No | Sorta | No | No | No | Yes | No | Yes | Sorta | Sorta | Sorta | No | No | No | No | Yes | No | No | |||||||||||||
85 | Profession | Mathematics | Computers (practical: IT, programming, etc.) | Other "white collar" | Computers (practical: IT, programming, etc.) | Other "white collar" | Economics | Mathematics | Other "social science" | Law | Other "white collar" | Computers (practical: IT, programming, etc.) | Computers (practical: IT, programming, etc.) | Computers (practical: IT, programming, etc.) | Computers (practical: IT, programming, etc.) | Law | Other "social science" | Health Care (other) | Biology | Computers (practical: IT, programming, etc.) | Computers (practical: IT, programming, etc.) | Finance | Health Care (other) | Economics | Economics | Biology | Statistics | Law | Other "social science" | Engineering | Computers (other academic, computer science) | Finance | Computers (AI) | Psychology | Computers (other academic, computer science) | Computers (AI) | Economics | Finance | Other "white collar" | Finance | Computers (practical: IT, programming, etc.) | Finance | Other "white collar" | Philosophy | Other "white collar" | Other "white collar" | Other "white collar" | Media | Media | Economics | Economics | Computers (practical: IT, programming, etc.) | Economics | Computers (practical: IT, programming, etc.) | Engineering | Economics | Computers (practical: IT, programming, etc.) | Computers (AI) | Other "white collar" | Computers (practical: IT, programming, etc.) | Psychology | Computers (practical: IT, programming, etc.) | Computers (practical: IT, programming, etc.) | Business | Computers (practical: IT, programming, etc.) | Computers (practical: IT, programming, etc.) | Computers (practical: IT, programming, etc.) | Computers (practical: IT, programming, etc.) | Computers (practical: IT, programming, etc.) | Mathematics | Computers (practical: IT, programming, etc.) | Law | Computers (practical: IT, programming, etc.) | Computers (practical: IT, programming, etc.) | Computers (practical: IT, programming, etc.) | Computers (practical: IT, programming, etc.) | Economics | Computers (practical: IT, programming, etc.) | Computers (practical: IT, programming, etc.) | Other "hard science" | Law | Finance | Economics | Computers (practical: IT, programming, etc.) | Other "hard science" | Psychology | Economics | Law | |||||||||||||
86 | Degree | Bachelor's | Master's | JD | Bachelor's | None | Bachelor's | Ph. D. | Master's | JD | Bachelor's | Bachelor's | Bachelor's | Master's | Bachelor's | JD | Bachelor's | MD | Ph. D. | Bachelor's | Master's | Bachelor's | Ph. D. | Ph. D. | Master's | Bachelor's | Master's | Bachelor's | Master's | Ph. D. | Ph. D. | Master's | High school | Other professional degree | Ph. D. | Master's | Ph. D. | Ph. D. | Bachelor's | Ph. D. | Master's | Master's | Bachelor's | High school | Bachelor's | Bachelor's | Bachelor's | Bachelor's | Bachelor's | Ph. D. | Bachelor's | Bachelor's | Master's | Bachelor's | 2 year degree | Bachelor's | Bachelor's | Ph. D. | Ph. D. | Bachelor's | High school | Bachelor's | High school | Bachelor's | Bachelor's | Bachelor's | Bachelor's | Bachelor's | Bachelor's | Bachelor's | Bachelor's | Master's | Bachelor's | Bachelor's | Bachelor's | Ph. D. | High school | Master's | Bachelor's | Master's | JD | Master's | High school | Master's | Bachelor's | None | Master's | Ph. D. | Bachelor's | ||||||||||||
87 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
88 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
89 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
90 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
91 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
92 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
93 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
94 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
95 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
96 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
97 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
98 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
99 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
100 |