So James Harden is off the proverbial trade-deadline-season list, having forced his way from Houston to Brooklyn back in mid-January and ended this season’s most high-profile superstar saga in the process. Ditto for Washington’s Bradley Beal, who has successfully convinced NBA executives that he wants to persevere in the nation’s capital until he’s old and gray.
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Zach LaVine. Karl-Anthony Towns. Kristaps Porzingis. Nikola Vucevic. Everywhere you look, there are high-end players who — despite routinely winding up in the league’s rumor mill — appear unlikely to be on the move before the league’s transactional buzzer sounds on March 25.
So who, or what, is worth tracking in these next 15 days? The Boston Celtics and their most prized asset that doesn’t wear a jersey: The $28.5 million trade exception acquired in the sign-and-trade with Charlotte for Gordon Hayward last offseason, which is the largest of its kind in NBA history and is set to expire before next season. It may not seem like the sexiest of storylines, but this fork-in-the-road moment for Celtics GM Danny Ainge and Co. could have a major ripple effect on the power dynamics in the East for the next few years.
As it stands, the Celtics (19-17) are as far away from the top spot in the East (five games behind Philadelphia) as they are the cellar dwellers (five games ahead of the lowly Cleveland Cavaliers, who are in 13th place). The trade exception, of course, allows the Celtics to trade for players without sending out salaries to match. Translation: Another quality piece could be added to the Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Kemba Walker and Marcus Smart core without losing any players who are currently part of the solution.
Yet because Boston is hard-capped at $138 million, it would need to send out approximately $9 million in salary to take back the full amount of the exception in salary. Unless, of course, the Celtics go ahead and make this move for Sacramento small forward Harrison Barnes that so many front office folks around the league believe could be coming.
Those rumblings had grown louder in recent weeks, and the decibel level was raised last week when Celtics commentator and former player Brian Scalabrine laid it all out on the team’s own telecast.
“The Celtics want Harrison Barnes …. Don’t listen to all the smoke and mirrors about all these other guys.”
Sorting through trade rumors with @tvabby + @Scalabrine, and why Barnes is more realistic than Grant or Vucevic. pic.twitter.com/QPLDXURyj2
— Chris Forsberg (@ChrisForsberg_) March 5, 2021
The Celtics question, then, becomes this: Is Barnes — a 28-year-old former champion who may be having the best all-around season of his nine-year-career — the kind of difference-maker who could get Boston back among the East elite? Sources say the Kings have (predictably) shifted to “seller” mode in recent weeks after losing 11 of 13 games heading into the All-Star break. And Barnes, in turn, could become a perfectly pragmatic personnel choice for what ails the underperforming Celtics.
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Beyond the basketball part of the equation, it seems the timing of it all may be playing a pivotal part here when it comes to the Celtics’ long-term plan. Barnes, who is making $22.2 million this season, has two subsequent seasons left on his deal and is set to make “just” $18.3 million in the final year (2022-23). Walker, meanwhile, also has a deal that expires after the 2022-23 campaign (for which he’s owed a whopping $37.6 million).
Why does this matter so much? Because Brown and Tatum — the two obvious Celtics building blocks here — become free agents in 2024 and 2025, respectively. As such, a Barnes addition would dovetail nicely into a well-timed roster reset of sorts just as the loaded 2023 free agency class arrives.
Two of the league’s top five MVP candidates at present — the Sixers’ Joel Embiid and Denver’s Nikola Jokic — are the headliners of that class, which also includes Beal (if he picks up his player option for the prior season) and Porzingis (if he opts out), among others. As recruiting pitches go, the notion of Brown and Tatum finally entering their primes and in search of a third star (again) is about as good as it gets.
Whether it’s the Barnes possibility or perhaps another trade exception target that they might land, this factor appears to be front and center (Exhibit B, for example: Oklahoma City’s Al Horford, the former Celtic who has also been tied to the Celtics as a trade exception option and whose contract also ends after 2022-23). This, potentially, is how you fix the short-term problems without compromising the long-term goals.
Boston is currently 12th in offensive rating (down from fourth last season), so adding a veteran who is averaging 16.7 points (49.2 percent shooting overall, 39.2 percent from 3) and a career-high 3.6 assists per game would surely help. Boston’s defensive rating has plummeted this season — from fourth in 2019-20 to 16th — and Barnes would certainly be asked to aid that effort as well.
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It’s unclear what first-year Kings general manager Monte McNair would want in return for Barnes, but it certainly doesn’t hurt that Boston has all of its first-round draft picks. What’s more, Boston has a number of young players taken in the first round or early second that it could offer (Payton Pritchard, Robert Williams, Grant Williams, Carsen Edwards, Romeo Langford and Aaron Nesmith). Those prospects, as it turns out, would fit the Sacramento timeline that is all part of the Kings’ plan (i.e. build around 23-year-old De’Aaron Fox and 21-year-old rookie Tyrese Haliburton).
It’s safe to assume the Celtics’ young co-stars are in no mood to take a step backward anytime soon, but that they’ve accomplished so much at such a young age makes the Celtics’ internal calculus tricky here. Even without the contractual pressure that often dictates these kinds of dynamics, there is a pressure to sustain a certain level of contention that Brown and Tatum have grown accustomed to having.
When you’ve grown accustomed to East Finals appearances before even sniffing your 25th birthday, it’s tough to accept any sort of regression. Brown made that much clear just before the break.
“I don’t feel very much like an All-Star,” Brown told reporters when asked about his selection. “I think this is the most I’ve lost since I’ve been here as a Celtic. We’ve got to find ways to win.”
The good news for Brown? It appears Celtics ownership, management and coach Brad Stevens feel the same way. That was evident during the Harden saga, when sources say Boston’s level of interest and involvement far surpassed what Ainge was willing to admit to when he addressed it publicly. Ironically, that deal — as opposed to a possible trade for Barnes — likely would have required Brown to be dealt.
Constant contention doesn’t come cheap, of course. If the Celtics were to make this move, their core of Tatum, Brown, Barnes, Walker and Smart would be owed a combined $124.3 million next season. By comparison, the Brooklyn Nets’ core of Harden, Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving and Joe Harris is owed a combined $138.7 million. You’re cutting the check to play with the big boys, but would that be enough to justify the cost? That’s what they have to decide.
Are the Clippers staying the course?
The Clippers, sources say, feel very good about their core and are likely to only pursue deals that could help them on the margins. Even with the stretch of six losses in nine games entering the break, they’re only four games back of Utah for the top spot in the West and fully intend to make a second-half surge.
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More importantly for their big-picture purposes, there are strong signs that the internal chemistry and cohesion, which proved to be so problematic last season, are at an all-time high in this Kawhi Leonard-Paul George era. First-year Clippers coach Tyronn Lue certainly deserves a fair amount of credit for that key development.
In terms of the roster confidence, no one should be surprised that there’s not much desire to stray from the plan here. They have the league’s third-best offense, with Leonard playing at an MVP-caliber level and George not far behind. On the defensive end, where they’ve fallen from a fifth-place ranking last season to 15th at the moment, they have every reason to believe they can return to form.
There has been, however, one fascinating revelation on this front as it relates to three-time Sixth Man of the Year Lou Williams. Though he was known to be very available in the offseason, after his on-court struggles in the bubble and the Magic City distraction in Atlanta complicated matters for the Clippers during their awful playoff finish, sources say that is not the case now. The combination of Williams’ leadership and much-improved play after his early-season slump have gone a long way toward re-establishing his pivotal place in their program. Williams, who is earning $8 million in the final season of his team-friendly deal, is third on the Clippers in scoring (12.5 points per game), assists (3.7) and PER (15.78).
Will Victor Oladipo be on the move (again)?
By the time the deadline comes and goes, I wouldn’t be surprised if Houston’s Victor Oladipo was the biggest name to be on the move. Per ESPN, Oladipo — who will be a free agent this offseason — turned down a two-year, $45.2 million extension offer from the Rockets after he was part of the aforementioned Harden deal.
Some rival executives saw this as a tone-setting kind of gesture for future negotiations, a way for the Rockets to make it clear that they want Oladipo to stick around — even though they didn’t expect him to accept the offer. Oladipo discussed this dynamic recently.
Rockets guard Victor Oladipo responds to the question about being offered a contract extension by the organization. #Rockets pic.twitter.com/oNNiRnKln5
— BIG SARGE MEDIA LLC (@BigSargeSportz) March 2, 2021
And yes, that does make some sense. But Oladipo will have no shortage of suitors in the offseason, with rival executives citing Miami, New York and Golden State as possibilities, to name a few. Add in that the Rockets have lost 13 consecutive games (seven of them with Oladipo on the court), and it’s not the kind of stretch that is likely to inspire a desire on either side to keep this pairing going. If first-year Rockets general manager Rafael Stone is going to avoid losing Oladipo for nothing, the time to make a move is nearing.
The Kyle Lowry dilemma
Speaking of teams heading in the wrong direction, Toronto losing four of five games before the break would seemingly up the odds of the Raptors (17-19) becoming ‘sellers.’ But when it comes to future Hall of Famer Kyle Lowry, there’s a strong sense around the league that the size of this final season on his deal ($30.5 million) may ultimately result in him staying put.
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If you’re Raptors president Masai Ujiri, and the goal is to turn Lowry into players and/or assets that improve the prospects for a brighter future, that’s a tricky proposition to pull off while also taking on the kinds of contracts necessary for the money match. Take Philadelphia, for example, where the Sixers could bring Lowry back to his home city while also reuniting him with the front office executive who played a part in his rise during their time together in Houston, Daryl Morey.
On the court, the 34-year-old would be a wonderful complement to the Embiid/Ben Simmons/Tobias Harris core. The Harden pursuit showed how badly Morey wants another perimeter scoring threat and playmaker, and Lowry’s championship pedigree could be a valuable addition to their culture. But even if there were a late first-round pick and/or a young player like Matisse Thybulle attached to a Sixers deal, would Ujiri want to take on Danny Green ($15.3 million expiring), Mike Scott ($5 million expiring) and Seth Curry (three years, including this one, for a combined $24.5 million) to make the math work? For Morey’s part, would he be so bullish on Lowry that it would justify the loss of shooting that would come with trading away Curry (who has become an X-factor and is shooting 44.8 percent from 3) and Green?
Whether it’s that scenario or any other, the sheer number of moving financial parts likely required to get a Lowry deal done would be a hindrance. The Clippers, sources say, are another team that is known to have pondered the Lowry possibility but appears to have been dissuaded by the contract obstacle. Conversely, the financial factor has everything to do with the widespread belief that Oklahoma City’s George Hill — who is owed $9.5 million this season and has a team option worth $10 million for next season — will attract serious attention from contenders.
Why Marvin’s money matters
As Kings beat writer Jason Jones and I wrote last week, the Kings have been open to discussing former No. 2 pick Marvin Bagley III in trade talks. But here’s the thing — again. The money matters in this sticky situation, too.
While Bagley has had a healthy and productive third season, and has even made improvements on the defensive end, the promise shown may not be enough to land him the relocation that his father publicly asked for in January. As several executives made clear, the fact that he’s owed $11.3 million next season and has a qualifying offer of $14.7 million for the 2022-23 campaign could scare off some potential suitors. Even with all the upside Bagley still shows, that’s the kind of hefty financial commitment that gives some executives a reason to pause.
(Top Photo: Scott Audette/NBAE via Getty Images)
