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Bitcoin market “looks like 2016,” says crypto fund Grayscale Bitcoin market “looks like 2016,” says crypto fund Grayscale
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Bitcoin market “looks like 2016,” says crypto fund Grayscale

with insights from Grayscale Investments
Bitcoin market “looks like 2016,” says crypto fund Grayscale

Cover art/illustration via CryptoSlate. Image includes combined content which may include AI-generated content.

The Bitcoin bull run in 2020 has sent ripples (no puns) across the crypto space with market observers calling for the asset to eventually reach all-time highs later this year. And if one prominent firm is considered โ€” the run is just getting started.

Bitcoin “looks like 2016”

Grayscale Investments, the institutional cryptocurrency fund, said in a recent report that Bitcoin is showing the same signs it did before the infamous 2017 run.

The Bitcoin market structure โ€œbears parallels that of early 2016 before it began its historic bull run,โ€ it said.

It also identified several on-chain metrics that point towards an increased public sentiment in the broader crypto market. An important takeaway from that was the increase in long-term holding over short-term speculation, indicating a sustainable price rally compared to 2017โ€™s boom and bust.

Image: The Tie

The firm predicted that both retail and institutional demand for Bitcoin would grow in the near future as inflation accelerates โ€” caused by governments around the world printing money to jumpstart an economy affected by the ongoing pandemic.

The above helps highlight the need for a โ€œscarce monetary commodity,โ€ with Bitcoin fitting the bill, said Grayscale. Furthermore, it noted that daily active addresses are at their highest level since 2017โ€™s all-time highs. Data from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode confirms this finding:

Bitcoin active addresses have risen this year. Image: Glassnode.

Is the Fed’s money printing good for Bitcoin?

Grayscale said the increasing dependence of the US economy on quantitative easing to stay afloat showed โ€œitโ€™s an addiction difficult to quit.โ€

Interestingly, Bitcoin is not the only market to have surged this year, the S&P index, commodities, metals, and just about any asset on global markets dropped sharply in mid-March and gained strength in the months after โ€” the so-called โ€œV-shapedโ€ recovery.

A “V-shaped” recovery in the S&P. Image: BTCUSD Chart on TradingView

But investors are wary of that, noted Grayscale. It said that clients viewed the โ€œunprecedented monetary and fiscal stimulusโ€ as a negative and were looking at โ€œalternative assetsโ€ like Bitcoin and gold to hedge their holdings.

Large corporations share that sentiment as well. Earlier this month, enterprise software firm MicroStrategy, a public-listed company, announced it invested over $250 million in Bitcoin to protect against a grim economic outlook. The firm also said it considered Bitcoin a โ€œnew age form of money.โ€

Meanwhile, Grayscale assessed Bitcoinโ€™s attributes against cash, gold, and financial assets to determine the marketโ€™s potential. It even quoted Paul Tudor Jones โ€” the hedge fund legend who also turned to Bitcoin to hedge investments this year โ€” in its report:

โ€œBitcoin had an overall score of nearly 60% of that of financial but has a market cap that is 1/1200th of that. It scored 66% of gold as a store of value, but has a market cap that is 1/60th of goldโ€™s outstanding value.โ€

For an outsider, it seems like Bitcoinโ€™s time as a money alternative has finally arrived. But investors must caution against any frenzied investments โ€” just about everything has pumped this year, after all.

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