NBA Draft Combine risers and fallers, plus lottery fallout and notes from Chicago

CHICAGO, IL - JUNE 24: NBA Draft Prospect, Kessler Edwards plays defense on NBA Draft Prospect, Nah'Shon Hyland during the 2021 NBA Draft Combine on June 24, 2021 at the Wintrust Arena in Chicago, Illinois. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2021 NBAE (Photo by Jeff Haynes/NBAE via Getty Images)
By John Hollinger
Jun 28, 2021

CHICAGO – Normalcy? Yes, that was some normalcy. And man, did it feel good.

The biggest takeaway from last week’s NBA Draft Combine in Chicago was how much it all felt like the “before” times. League execs, scouts and agents pitched camp at downtown hotels for meeting with players and each other, congregated in packs during stoppages in play, met for lengthy dinners at downtown steakhouses and occasionally even stopped to chat with lowly media members.

Advertisement

The setup on the court had a familiar ring to it, as well. While scouts wished that more higher-rated players had deigned to take part in the five-on-five competition, there was some talent on the court and some players that helped themselves. In addition, unlike last year’s draft, we have real measurements for nearly every player, and some of this will influence draft stock, as well.

Meanwhile, it wouldn’t be an NBA congregation if there wasn’t some good gossip thrown in. Chatter about coaching and trade situations in Dallas and Portland dominated the non-draft landscape. We’ll get to that later this week.

For now, though, let’s talk about the lottery and the draft.

Lottery Fallout

Detroit obviously was the big winner of Tuesday’s draft lottery after landing the top overall pick. The No. 1 player on virtually every public draft board is Oklahoma State wing Cade Cunningham, but it’s not a slam dunk that Detroit takes him.  This has been reported other places already, including by our own Sam Vecenie, but I can very much confirm that the Pistons are intrigued by G-League Ignite guard Jalen Green and could take him over Cunningham.

Regardless, the Pistons will pick somebody. The chances of Detroit trading down seem minimal, and my spies were equally skeptical of Houston (at No. 2) and Cleveland (at No. 3) looking to move back in return for multiple picks.

This gives rise to a more general question: There are lots of teams that might seek to trade up, but who trades down? According to my math, it requires two teams to complete a trade — and this could prove difficult.

Take Orlando, for instance. The Magic might love to package picks No. 5 and No. 8 to move up to, say, No. 2, but would Houston play ball with them? It seems unlikely. Similarly, the Warriors have Nos.  7 and 14, the Thunder have picks 16 and 18, New York has picks 19, 21 and 32, and the Rockets have picks 23 and 24. All those teams have scenarios where angling to move up makes the most sense, but NBA trades take two to tango. Generally, trading up requires a significant overpay, and even then there are roadblocks.

Some other thoughts and chatter:

  • Golden State assured itself of an additional first-round pick when Minnesota failed to land in the top three on lottery night. The Warriors now have the seventh and 14th picks plus last year’s second overall pick, James Wiseman, and there is a widespread expectation that the Warriors will use No. 7 and Wiseman, in particular, to seek more immediate upgrades to the roster. One name to watch: Pascal Siakam.
  • Speaking of the Raptors, Toronto was the other big winner from the lottery, moving up to the fourth spot from their expected seventh position and, as a result, cashing in on a fairly brazen late-season tankathon that saw them drop 10 of their final 11 games while the Bulls and Pelicans of the world chased the Play-In Tournament. The Raptors could take their good fortune in a variety of directions, and in particular, this may make it easier to move on from 35-year-old free-agent guard Kyle Lowry.
  • Moving up to the fourth spot does impact Toronto’s cap room a bit, since the cap hold for the fourth pick is greater, but minus Lowry, the Raptors can still generate $20 million in cap room — enough to target another good young player to build around the fourth pick, Fred VanVleet and OG Anunoby. Leagues sources also widely expect Gary Trent Jr. to return to Toronto, given that his minuscule $2.2 million cap hold has negligible impact on the Raptors’ space.
  • Any chance of Oklahoma City not tanking this year likely went up in smoke when the Thunder had the worst lottery luck of any team. They could have had the first and fifth picks if everything had gone their way; instead, they ended up with the sixth and 18th picks, in addition to the 16th pick that they recently acquired from Boston.

Players Moving Up

While projected first-rounders sat out the five-on-five portion, it did offer some players who were firmly thought of as second-rounders or worse a chance to show their wares. Several of them made very positive impressions.

The most notable was VCU guard Nah’Shon “Bones” Hyland, who dominated the opening minutes of the first scrimmage — the time when the majority of scouts are paying rapt attention and hadn’t yet turned to their phones or the guy behind them to chitchat — and finished with 17 points, five rebounds and four assists in the one game he played.

Advertisement

Hyland stood out not just for this box score, but for his eye test. When he got bigs on switches, he blew past them, leaving himself acres of space to finish at the rim. It’s pretty easy to envision Lou Williams-type bench scorer scenarios for him, especially after he measured with a 6-9 wingspan, and he may have played himself into the back end of the first round.

The athletic and physical testing also provided a chance for some players to upgrade their stock, even if they didn’t play on the court. One of the big winners here was Gonzaga forward Corey Kispert, whose athleticism was questioned coming into the event. Measuring 6-6 in socks and posting a solid 30-inch no-step vertical, a 2.99 shuttle time that was 0.01 from topping the camp and a solid 3.12 sprint allayed a lot of those concerns — and probably cemented the Zags’ sharpshooter as a lottery pick.

Other notables who helped their stock this week:

  • Tennessee guard Keon Johnson didn’t play in the games but uncorked an eye-popping 41.5-inch no-step vertical and a ridiculous 48-inch max vertical, which set a combine record. The no-step vertical is generally considered the more useful of the two, and to put it in context, Johnson’s was 4.5 inches higher than any other player tested this week. For good measure, he ripped off a 3.00 sprint time, nearly the fastest at the camp. Johnson measured short, at just 6-3 ¾ in socks, but one suspects he literally jumped into the top 10.
  • Iowa wing Joe Wieskamp was seen by most as a late second-rounder and reportedly was still on the fence about whether to stay in the draft at all. Not anymore. Wieskamp had 26 points and 10 rebounds on the second day of the five-on-five, posted a respectable 30-inch no-step vertical and an impressive 42-inch max leap and tore off a 3.04 sprint time. He still has to clean up his game off the dribble a bit and didn’t have an assist in either game, but he made 8 of 13 3-point attempts after shooting 46.2 percent on 3s this year, making it easy for scouts to envision him as a potential Duncan Robinson. Listed at 6-6 without shoes, Wieskamp also helped his evaluation by recording a 6-11 wingspan.
  • Houston guard Quentin Grimes scored 39 points over the two games and made nine of his 16 3-pointers. Flying under the radar for much of the year, much as his team did (the Cougars went 28-4 and made the Final Four, but didn’t get the same ink as the Dukes and Carolinas), the 6-5 Grimes improved to 40.3 percent from 3 this past season after struggling in his first two college seasons. His shooting performance this weekend makes it easier to buy the improvement and likely locks him in as a mid-second-rounder or better.
  • Texas center Jericho Sims has never been asked to score and often played second fiddle to more prominent talent (he was Mo Bamba’s backup as a freshman, for instance). Nonetheless, he always brought defense and rim running to the Longhorns, and his performance in the combine made it clear he can fill the same role in the pros. Sims made 14 of his 19 shots from the field, mostly alley-oops and rim runs for dunks while showing obvious physical traits for the next level. Underscoring that latter point, Sims measured with a 7-3 ¼ wingspan and had the second-best no-step vertical (37 inches).
  • South Carolina guard A.J. Lawson wasn’t even invited to this event at first but played his way in with a fantastic showing at the G-League Elite camp. He kept it up here, posting the camp’s fastest sprint time (2.98) to go with a 33-inch no-step vert, while on the court recording 17 points, seven rebounds and seven assists in the late game on Friday. He also helped his stock by measuring 6-5 ½ in socks, albeit with just a 6-6¾ wingspan. He likely played himself into the top 50 on draft boards.
  • Pitt forward Justin Champagnie had better stat lines than his game tape as a collegian, but he showed the same ability to fill the stat sheet in the two combine games, totaling 28 points and 20 boards. Worries that he would measure short weren’t quite as bad as feared — he’s 6-5 ¾ in socks with a 6-9 ½ wingspan — but combined with a 27-inch no-step vert and a 3.34 sprint, it probably puts a cap on his stock. Nonetheless, one has to think Champagnie cemented himself in Round 2 at worst.
  • Florida State forward Scottie Barnes has worked his way into the top five conversation, and his testing won’t hurt any. Barnes measured 6-7 in socks with a monstrous 7-2 ¾ wingspan, and he uncorked a 36-inch no-step vertical.
  • Arkansas guard Moses Moody, Florida guard Scottie Lewis and West Virginia guard Miles McBride also measured with absurd “+8” wingspans — eight inches longer than their height in shoes. Most pros are about +3 or +4.

Players Moving Down

Inevitably, if some players raise their draft stock and move up the board, some others will end up doing the opposite. So a grim part of our duty is to report on players whose weeks maybe could have gone a little better.

Leading the way is Duke guard D.J. Steward, who turned pro after his freshman year but probably faces a circuitous path to the NBA after struggling mightily on the court against more veteran college players like Grimes and McKinley Wright IV. He finished 4-for-18 with seven turnovers in the two games, struggled on defense and, at 6-0 ¾ in socks, didn’t flash point guard skills.

  Some other players who didn’t help themselves:

  • G League Ignite guard Daishen Nix had teams excited to see how his trimmed shape would play out against other prospects. While his frame was notably more svelte than it was in the G-League bubble, the on-court portion did not go well. Nix shot 0-for-10 from the field and struggled to put pressure on the rim, although he did finish with 12 assists over the two games. Nix also registered with 11.8 percent body fat, indicating there still is some money left on the table, conditioning-wise, while his size (6-3 in socks) and passing remain intriguing. Surprisingly, he ripped off a 3.00 sprint time.
  • Oral Roberts guard Max Abmas was getting some late first-round buzz after his strong tournament run, but this setting showcased some of his shortcomings. Literally, Abmas measured as the shortest player there (5-10 ½ in socks). He also only jumped 28.5 inches on his no-step vert, and in the games, he shot 3-for-18 with just three assists. Abmas leaves his option open to return to Oral Roberts and might be better off returning to school and trying again next year.
  • Similar to Abmas, UCLA guard Jonny Juzang entered the draft after leading UCLA’s surprising run to the Final Four. However, in this environment, he struggled to get to his favored spots in the midrange and convert, shooting just 5-for-21 over the two games while contributing little else to the box score. With his draft stock likely in late second-round range, he might also consider trying again next year.
  • Athleticism concerns about Iowa big man Luka Garza probably weren’t helped any by his 24-inch no-step vert and 3.51 sprint time, both of which were the worst of any player tested. Despite a dominant college career, he’s likely looking at being a late second-rounder.
  • Baylor guard Jared Butler falls into a special category. As our Shams Charania reported, a league medical panel is still deciding whether to approve him to play in the league. I had Butler as the 11th-best prospect, and he surely would be a first-rounder if he gets a clean bill of health, but it’s tough to draft a player if the league won’t let him play in games. On a very side note, Butler only measured with a 6-4 wingspan, shorter than expectations.

(Photo: Jeff Haynes/NBAE via Getty Images)

Get all-access to exclusive stories.

Subscribe to The Athletic for in-depth coverage of your favorite players, teams, leagues and clubs. Try a week on us.

John Hollinger

John Hollinger ’s two decades of NBA experience include seven seasons as the Memphis Grizzlies’ Vice President of Basketball Operations and media stints at ESPN.com and SI.com. A pioneer in basketball analytics, he invented several advanced metrics — most notably, the PER standard. He also authored four editions of “Pro Basketball Forecast.” In 2018 he was honored with the Lifetime Achievement Award at the Sloan Sports Analytics Conference. Follow John on Twitter @johnhollinger