Chuck Grassley sails past Jim Carlin in Republican US Senate primary; moves on to run for 8th term

Chuck Grassley has captured the Republican Party’s nomination, cruising past state Sen. Jim Carlin in Tuesday’s primary election as he seeks an eighth term in the U.S. Senate.

The Associated Press called the race in favor of Grassley just half an hour after polls closed Tuesday night. By Wednesday morning, Grassley had about 74% of the vote to Carlin's 27%.

Grassley, 88, will take on retired Navy Admiral Mike Franken, who won a three-way primary Tuesday. 

"I love serving the people of Iowa," Grassley said in a statement. "Now that the primary’s over, I want everybody to unite so we can have a big victory in November. A big victory in Iowa contributes to Republicans taking over control of the United States Senate and House of Representatives."

Carlin, a 59-year-old trial lawyer and Army veteran from Sioux City, jumped into the race in February 2021 — well before Grassley had announced he planned to seek reelection. It is the first primary challenge Grassley has faced since his 1980 election to the U.S. Senate. 

From the outset, Carlin positioned himself to the right of Grassley, arguing he was more conservative on a number of issues, including on border security and support for the Second Amendment. Carlin cast himself as an ally of former Republican President Donald Trump. He has said Grassley should not have voted to certify the results of the 2020 presidential election and instead should have tried harder to investigate possible cases of fraud.

Still, Trump gave Grassley his “complete and total endorsement” at an October 2021 rally in Des Moines, helping to cement the party’s conservative base of support.

“We have with us tonight a great American patriot, a man who truly loves Iowa — loves Iowa,” Trump said at the rally. “He’s a young — very young guy. He’s strong. And he’s very handsome. He fights like no other. When I’ve needed him for help, he was always there.”

More:Former President Donald Trump endorses Iowa Sen. Chuck Grassley: 'A great American patriot'

In the final two weeks of the primary race, Grassley tapped into his $4.6 million war chest to launch TV, radio and digital ads across the state that emphasized his conservative bona fides and targeted Democratic President Joe Biden. More than $460,000 worth of Grassley ads peppered the state. Carlin, who raised a tiny fraction of what Grassley amas, did not have the resources to respond in kind.

Now, Grassley moves on to a general election during a year that is expected to favor Republicans broadly. In Iowa, Biden is deeply unpopular, garnering a 35% approval rating in a March Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll. Republicans have kept him at the center of their messaging as they seek to tie other Democrats to him on issues like inflation, gas prices and international conflict. 

Throughout his tenure, Grassley has towered in Iowa politics, winning past elections with massive margins. His closest U.S. Senate election was in 1980, his first year in that office. He defeated incumbent Democratic U.S. Sen. John Culver by 8 percentage points. In every election since, the Democratic candidate has failed to crack even 40%, giving Grassley winning margins of as much as 42 percentage points. 

Election results:See Iowa primary election results across the state

But Carlin — and Grassley's potential Democratic opponents — sensed an opening this year. 

A June 2021 Iowa Poll showed that 64% of likely voters said they thought it was time for someone new to hold Grassley’s Senate seat. Just 27% said they would vote to reelect Grassley. That included a sizable share of Republican likely voters — 37% — who said they were ready for someone else.

In September, the Iowa Poll showed him with an 18-point lead over Finkenauer, who, at the time, was the best-known Democrat to have announced a run. But that same poll showed Grassley’s favorability ratings lagged other Republicans.

Among Republicans, 81% rated him favorably. That fell short of the 90% favorable mark Republicans gave Republican Gov. Kim Reynolds and the 91% rating they gave to Trump.

Still, he’s the favorite to win in November. National elections analysts rate Iowa’s U.S. Senate race as “solidly Republican.”

Election results:See Polk County election results as vote counts come in

Brianne Pfannenstiel is the chief politics reporter for the Register. Reach her at bpfann@dmreg.com or 515-284-8244. Follow her on Twitter at @brianneDMR.