NJ primary election pits Trump's 'America First' Republicans against moderate favorites

A quick look at the ballot slogans for Tuesday's primary provides a glimpse into the strategy of New Jersey's Republican Party in the post-Trump era — everything is about who can put "America First" in the most convincing way. 

There’s an “America First Veteran” and the “America First Agenda.” Two candidates are running as “America First Republicans,” not to be confused with “America First Conservative Republicans.” Other candidates are running under the slogans “America First: True Conservative Outsider” and “New Jersey First." 

But if any of the self-styled Trump Republicans have a chance of riding the anticipated midterm red wave into the House of Representatives, they must first pull off upsets in Tuesday's primary against leading candidates who represent New Jersey’s traditionally moderate brand of conservatives. The most prominent are Chris Smith, the 42-year incumbent in the 4th Congressional District, and Tom Kean Jr., the descendant of New Jersey Republican royalty running in the 7th District.

As in so many other states this year, New Jersey’s primary stands as a test of the Trump brand. It isn’t expected to fare well in a state with just two Republican Congressman — Smith and Jeff Van Drew — in the 12-member delegation, political analysts said. 

“We’re not surprised that people are wrapping themselves in the MAGA flag,” said Ben Dworkin, director of Rowan University's Institute for Public Policy and Citizenship. “What would be surprising would be if they start winning in New Jersey.”

For subscribers:The New Jersey political tradition of landing the party line on primary ballots could end

Time to vote:What you need to know to vote in the 2022 primary election

Trump remains the party's leader and is still popular with Republicans, but he's had mixed results in this year's elections. The most notable defeat came in Georgia's gubernatorial primary, where incumbent Brian Kemp crushed the Trump-backed candidate David Perdue. And Trump has not campaigned for or endorsed any candidates in New Jersey, as he has in many other states. 

Last year's strong Republican showing in New Jersey — which included an unknown truck driver defeating the Democratic Senate president and a close call in the governor's race — could indicate conservative momentum when polls open Tuesday.

But New Jersey primaries also tend to be low-turnout events that benefit incumbents and candidates awarded the "county line," the preferred ballot position with others backed by the party.

No sitting member of Congress has lost a primary in New Jersey to a non-incumbent challenger — redistricting has forced incumbents into primaries — since 1958, said Harrison Lavelle, an analyst for the political website Split Ticket. And that was a Democrat, Al Sieminski, who failed to get the backing of the party in Hudson County. 

"It’s an incredibly rare feat," Lavelle said. 

"Traditionally (in) these challenges, 'the line' makes them tough to succeed."  

Smith, Kean and other leading candidates all have that prized ballot position with other bracketed candidates — under slogans such as "Regular Republican Organization" and "Republicans for Responsible Government." 

That is not to say upsets can't happen, as freshman state Sen. Edward Durr, the trucker, can attest. But for Democrats and Republicans alike, incumbency and organizational support usually translate to victory in primaries. 

"We don’t really expect any of these primaries to be shockingly close but that’s always possible with a very low turnout," Dworkin said, because a party's "hardcore supporters will definitely show up." 

The tension found within the Republican Party is less visible on the Democratic side. Some incumbents, such as Reps. Josh Gottheimer, Frank Pallone and Mikie Sherrill, have no primary challenger, while others face candidates running "off the line."

A new Congressional map of districts also bolstered the November prospects of all Democratic incumbents except for Tom Malinowski in the 7th district, where Kean is the favorite Tuesday against six fellow Republicans. 

Barring upsets on either side, the primary results tend to preview in June how New Jersey's delegation will look after Election Day in November, said J. Miles Coleman, associate editor of Sabato's Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia's Center for Politics. 

"New Jersey is an easy state for us political forecasters because with the county line, it’s almost like the general election is determined by the primaries," he said. 

Still, he and other analysts will be watching how challengers from the left and right flanks of the top candidates fare Tuesday. That could be a barometer of the mood of voters heading into November's midterms, said Matthew Hale, a political science professor at Seton Hall University. He is also a Democratic councilman in Highland Park up for election Tuesday. 

"Trump hasn’t been having a great couple of weeks," Hale said, "but I think there’s a lot of anger out there and they might be voting for anything different." 

Dustin Racioppi is a reporter in the New Jersey Statehouse. For unlimited access to his work covering New Jersey’s governor and political power structure, please subscribe or activate your digital account today.

Email: racioppi@northjersey.com 

Twitter: @dracioppi