Disney++
Jokes aside, Disney’s new premium layer on top of their premium service feels like a future model…
Disney’s streaming service, Disney+, is a huge hit. How huge? 60 million subscribers not even a year after launch, huge. A full four years ahead of their projections/goals huge. Sure those numbers were probably sandbagged a bit, and different than their own internal hopes. But come on, four years ahead of a stated plan is impressive any way you add it up.
And speaking of adding it up…
The most interesting element of the Disney earnings report today was what’s coming next to Disney+. Namely, Mulan. Yes, the oft-delayed movie will find its way into living rooms, at least in the US, as there’s still no clear end to COVID. But unlike Hamilton, which undoubtedly help bolster the aforementioned Disney+ subscriber numbers, Mulan will be an additional purchase on top of Disney+ itself. Call it Disney+ Plus.
Now, Disney is saying this is a one-time thing in an extraordinary time. Of course, Hamilton was meant for theaters too (and yes, will still probably play there, eventually). So this feels a little like a trend that Disney just doesn’t want to admit is a trend. Unlike, say, Universal, which is happy to tout the trend. (Thus pissing off their theatrical partners, before making up in window-shattering fashion.)
Anyway, Mulan is different in that again, it’s going to be a purchase on top of Disney+. The price? $29.99. And while some are quick to balk at this — it’s one movie which is several times the price of Disney+ itself, which has thousands of movies and shows — I suspect that many families are going to view the price as more than right.
And if that’s the case, I suspect we may see more of this. Certainly more than it being a “one time thing”. And I think even new CEO Bob Chapek left the, yes, window open a bit. During the conference call today:
“We are looking at ‘Mulan’ as a one-off as opposed to a new windowing model.” Mr. Chapek added, however, that Disney was “excited” to discover how a major film might perform in online release.
That is hardly a definitive one-off statement!
Look, Disney, the undisputed kings of the box office, are not and should not be in any rush to destroy the theatrical model that treats them so well. Beyond money, it fuels their entire virtuous cycle by elevating their IP. But the world has changed. And even post-COVID, the world will continue changing. It would be foolish of Disney to shut the door entirely on a new distribution mechanism if it works.¹
You could see a world in which some Disney fare goes to theaters, some goes to Disney+, and some goes to Disney++, depending on the situation.² Maybe over time, theatrical and Disney++ are the same window just with different price points and experience expectations. Which is to say, it sure feels like this Disney++ model is always going to work well for content aimed at families with kids. And young kids in particular.
Historically, of course, that has been what Disney is known for. With Marvel, Star Wars, and now Fox, it’s becoming less so. Still, Disney can and should be at the forefront here of model innovation. And I’m guessing they’re going to be watching Mulan with more than a little interest.
And if that’s the case, others will follow. And so not only will we have multiple premium streaming services, we’ll have premium offerings on top of those multiple premium services. Because why settle for one plus, when you can have two pluses?
¹ Not to mention pays them a cut that is not only better than theatrical, but is better than standard PVOD too.
² It feels like we’ve made quite a bit of progress in just the four months since I wrote this:
At the same time, streaming rose to power perhaps faster than some were expecting. And this has showcased a demand that was always there (again, see: DVD business): watching movies in the home. I suspect we’ll see a lot of $20-$25 big studio rentals shortly after a theatrical release (just like in a hotel room). And more at the same time of said release. And eventually more without the theatrical release at all. Others will go to Netflix and the like for scale. And others will go to the studio’s own streaming services, like Disney+. Perhaps at a premium to those services, or perhaps not.
