Inside story: Emirati national security advisor ‘set to visit Tehran’

The story: The national security advisor of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) is set to travel to Iran on a rare visit, Amwaj.media has learned. An informed source in Abu Dhabi has stated that Sheikh Tahnoon bin Zayed Al Nahyan (TbZ) will travel to the Iranian capital for talks next week. This comes as former Emirati minister of state for foreign affairs Anwar Gargash has stated that the UAE “has taken steps to de-escalate tensions [with Iran] as we have no interest in a confrontation.”

The context: TbZ’s anticipated visit comes in the context of several recent meetings with senior visiting US officials, as Tehran and Washington are set to resume indirect nuclear talks in Vienna later this month.

• US National Security Council Coordinator for the Middle East and North Africa Brett McGurk and US Special Envoy for Iran Robert Malley were hosted by Abu Dhabi Crown Prince and de facto UAE ruler Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan (MbZ) on Nov. 12. TbZ and UAE Ambassador to the US Yousef Al-Otaiba were also in attendance during the session at the Al-Shati Palace.
  
  
• Emirati media relayed that the two sides “discussed strategic co-operation…and exchanged views on issues of mutual interest, particularly the latest developments in the Middle East and joint efforts to bolster peace, security and stability in the region.”

Prior to the Nov. 12 meeting with MbZ and TbZ, Malley and US Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Arabian Peninsula Affairs Daniel Benaim met with the Emirati national security advisor on Oct. 18. The two senior US officials also saw Gargash during that visit, who now serves as a diplomatic adviser to UAE President Khalifa bin Zayed Al Nahyan.

• In a tweet posted by the US mission to the UAE, Malley and Benaim’s talks with TbZ and Gargash were described as revolving around “our shared commitment to regional security challenges, including Iran’s nuclear activities.”

The flurry of diplomatic engagement comes as the long-awaited indirect talks on the revival of the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), as the Iran nuclear deal is formally known, are set to resume.

• Iran and the US will indirectly engage in the Austrian capital on Nov. 29. Six rounds of diplomatic talks on the revival of the nuclear deal have taken place since US President Joe Biden took office back in January. The most recent session was held on June 20, two days after the election of conservative cleric Ebrahim Raisi as Iran’s new president.
  
  
• Iran has indicated that it wants the US to show goodwill in practice, admit “culpability” for unilaterally walking away from the nuclear deal in 2018, and guarantees that Washington won’t exit the accord once again.
  
  
• Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian has in past weeks remarked that Tehran would welcome the unfreezing of 10B USD of Iranian assets currently locked in overseas bank accounts due to US secondary sanctions imposed in the aftermath of the US withdrawal from the JCPOA.

The undercurrents: TbZ reportedly visited Tehran in Oct. 2019, heading an Emirati security delegation. The trip took place five months after explosions rocked several tankers off the coast of Fujairah. Those blasts were blamed on Iran. The Emirati-Iranian security dialogue was geared to de-escalate tensions in the aftermath of then US president Donald Trump’s exit from the nuclear deal and reimposition of all sanctions under a “maximum pressure” campaign.

• In connection with TbZ’s reported Oct. 2019 visit to the Iranian capital, an Iranian lawmaker alleged that 700M USD of Iranian assets had been unfrozen by the UAE. While that assertion was never independently confirmed, the MP added, “The Emirates introduces itself as the Switzerland of the Middle East, but trade, banking, energy, and aviation of this country depends on security…It knows that it cannot do anything with a lack of security.”

Meanwhile, the tone put out by Gargash suggests that unlike the lead-up to the signing of the JCPOA, regional buy-in could be taking shape this time. Yet, there are no expectations of an immediate breakthrough in the indirect nuclear talks between Iran and the United States. In this vein, Gargash told the Abu Dhabi Strategic Debate on Nov. 15 that he is “realistic about the chances of success.”

• The senior Emirati official also emphasized, "It will be a slow process, but we hope that over time we can build together greater confidence between us and start to make progress towards a more sustainable and mutually beneficial status quo.”

As Amwaj.media has previously reported, Iranian Foreign Minister Amir-Abdollahian stated in an Oct. 31 interview that he "supported" sharing details of the nuclear talks with key players in the region. He also noted that he had discussed the JCPOA with several neighboring countries.

• "I believe our negotiators should apprise our neighbors and key regional players of the JCPOA talks," Amir-Abdollahian stated. The Iranian chief diplomat additionally said he had told his Omani counterpart to spread the word among the Persian Gulf littoral countries that Iran's actions in relation to the nuclear deal "will not be against the region or our neighbors."

Of further note, UAE Foreign Minister Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan (AbZ) spoke with his Iranian counterpart on Nov. 11. In a telephone conversation, the Emirati and Iranian chief diplomats discussed bilateral and regional issues, including the possibility of an expansion of bilateral trade and economic ties.

• The Iranian top diplomat notably described his Emirati counterpart’s recent visit to Syria—which saw Abz meet with President Bashar Al-Assad—as “a positive step” towards reducing tensions in the region.
  
  
• On his part, AbZ reportedly welcomed bilateral and regional cooperation, including on climate change. The two senior officials also extended mutual invitations for official visits.

The future: The current Iranian tone towards its Arab neighbors with reference to the nuclear deal suggests an intended shift away from the dynamics under moderate former president Hassan Rouhani (2013-21). The Islamic Republic previously failed to bring Arab deal critics such as the UAE on board during the negotiations leading up to the JCPOA. Having said that, it is unclear to what extent Abu Dhabi is currently hedging as opposed to genuinely engaging with the resumption of the indirect Iran-US dialogue.

Importantly, a visit by TbZ could also herald further official engagement between Abu Dhabi and Tehran. AbZ and his Iranian counterpart have already recently extended mutual invitations for official visits. Another detail to keep in mind is that TbZ helped pave the way for MbZ’s upcoming landmark meeting with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan during his Aug. 18 visit to Ankara. Given the major shifts underway in the way the UAE is approaching regional rival Turkey, further exchanges between senior Emirati and Iranian officials could thus be on the horizon.