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U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, in the midst of a trip to the Baltics, is hearing a warning and an ask from its leaders. Putin must be stopped in Ukraine, they’re saying. At the same time, the West must do far more to shore up NATO territory in Eastern Europe, where, they fear, Putin’s gaze may turn next.
In an interview with The Washington Post, Latvia’s Defense Minister Artis Pabriks talks of how the West’s long attempts to integrate Russia succeeded mostly in making it beholden to the tainted wealth of Putin’s oligarchs. He also warns of the unpredictability of Putin. Washington has downplayed the Russian leader’s thinly veiled threat to use nuclear weapons — a nightmare scenario Pabriks is not so quick to discard.
This interview had been edited for clarity and length.
FAIOLA: NATO countries in Eastern Europe — Latvia, other Baltic states, Poland — have been warning for years about a growing Russian threat. Do you believe the West didn’t listen?
PABRIKS: I cannot 100 percent say that we foresaw the Russians would invade in such a way and at such a date. But we have been warning since the 2008 Georgian war, and ringing bells since 2014 [when Russia annexed Crimea].
One of the answers lie with what [Deputy Chair of Russia’s Security Council] Dmitry Medvedev said in that staged security council meeting in Russia shortly before the invasion. He basically said, ‘Look, we’ve faced this situation before when we invaded Georgia, when we took Crimea. And what was the Western reaction? These guys are soft. They will first come with economic sanctions, and later, they will crawl back to us and ask for business as usual. They will blink.’
This was their assumption because [the West] gave signals of weakness. That is important to understand. The West has been following this broken pattern since the early 1990s, the idea that with mutual trade, and mutual dependence, countries — even authoritarian states — will understand and change their policies. No! The result was that West became more corrupt because of [Russian] money. This interdependency made the West weaker. … Now, we cannot blink.
Is the Western response strong enough?
I would be careful to judge because things are changing every minute, and we are here in the border countries. We have to do everything we can to economically punish Russia. And you know, if you allow me a small irony, I’ll say that if they are not waging ‘war’ in Ukraine according to Putin’s definition, then we are also not putting economic sanctions on them. It is simply a ‘financial operation.’ The second point is that there cannot be enough military assistance to Ukraine. Provisions, ammunition, weapons, everything.
Do you support a NATO-enforced no-fly zone?
If you explain how we can guarantee the safety of Ukrainians without starting a NATO-Russia war, I would support it. But at this moment, it’s extremely difficult for me to imagine. Theirs is really a Soviet army, and they have old problems related to that. What they are is a nuclear power, and I believe that if we give the Ukrainians everything they need to defend themselves, they can hold. But I’m not actually certain that Putin will not put [a] nuclear tactical missile on Ukraine or somewhere else. That kind of escalation could lead to the Third World War.
Do you believe Putin would use a nuclear bomb?
It’s not my belief, but I don’t exclude anything. Because with this guy, everything is possible. If Putin wants to be considered a serious leader, it would be advisable not to threaten the international community and remember that Russia is not the only nuclear power.
Do the Baltic states fear they’re next?
Yes, people do fear that. You know, during the last 10 days, we’ve had more volunteers join the National Guard than we usually get during a whole year. So people are highly motivated, people are ready to defend our country. What we are asking is that Americans and other Europeans listen. Because the Europeans are not listening so much. We need additional military financial assistance for our armies. We are raising our defense spending to 2.5 percent of GDP, but we are a small country and we are missing certain weapons. What we need for our defense from America is a small amount. An additional $200 million. It’s not a big deal for you. But for us, it makes a big difference.
The Germans recently announced a military buildup after years of embracing pacifism. Are the Baltic states comfortable with this shift given the shadow of two world wars?
We totally support this buildup. Totally. About two months ago, our neighboring country, Estonia, wanted to deliver old-fashioned [weapons] to the Ukrainian army and the Germans were blocking it because they originally came from East Germany. I said at the time that the Germans were being hypocritical and immoral. They got very upset about my words. But I told their minister, ‘You’re the biggest country in Europe and you have a defense and military responsibility. You cannot just claim that you are giving some financial aid, you know, for refugee camps and humanitarian assistance. It’s not enough.’ So what you’re seeing now from them is a revolution in their thinking. I would say 90 percent of Latvia supports it. The thing is, of course, that we are still not a 100 percent trusting in their abilities because it takes years to build up an army.
How do you assess the land war in Ukraine and Russian tactics thus far?
I don’t wonder about their tactics because I expected this from the very beginning. This rise in civilian casualties to try to cause a panic in Ukraine. They want to turn Kyiv and other cities into Grozny, as we saw in the Chechen war. This is their tactic. This is how they understand war. They don’t believe in human rights.
What more could NATO do?
From NATO, we basically need to see that all plans are activated, that we have a guarantee of backup in a short period of time, and that Russia sees the risk of crossing even one inch of our borders. And we must have the capability to respond. We need a larger presence of Americans in Europe. But along with this, we should engage in the maximum support for Ukraine while avoiding a direct confrontation [with the Russians]. We have to make sure that Ukraine for Russia becomes a second Afghanistan. This is our last chance, because if we do not stop them in Ukraine, the Russians will not stop there.
