The story: The United Arab Emirates (UAE) has halted talks with the US over the purchase of F-35 aircraft. An Emirati official has cited “technical reasons” as the cause for the suspension of negotiations. But reports say the deal has been stalled by US concerns over the UAE’s expanding partnership with China, and Washington’s commitment to maintaining Israel’s “qualitative military edge (QME)”—even after the Emirati normalization with Tel Aviv last year.

The coverage: The Abu Dhabi-based Al-Ain News on Dec. 14 reported that the UAE had decided to suspend negotiations with the United States.

• The article relayed that the agreement for the purchase of 50 US-made F-35s is part of a larger 23B USD deal that includes the US sale of armed drones and other advanced weaponry to the UAE.
  
  
• An Emirati official was quoted as saying that “technical requirements, limitations on operations, and cost-benefit analysis led to the reassessment," adding that “talks about the F-35 jets might reopen in the future.” The article further noted that the possibility of future negotiations cements the US position as the preferred supplier of military equipment to the UAE.

The US-funded Al-Hurra featured Pentagon Press Secretary John Kirby’s comments on the suspension of the UAE-US arms deal.

• Kirby noted that certain end-user requirements exist for the sale and usage of US weapons that “are non-negotiable and not specific to the UAE.” The Pentagon official also emphasized that the deal would be discussed during the Dec. 15 UAE-US military joint dialogue.

Some Emirati Twitter accounts applauded the UAE’s decision to withdraw from negotiations with the United States.

• Emirati influencer Hassan Sajwani thought the move demonstrated the UAE’s strength, writing, “Some people have forgotten the mighty negotiating power that the UAE now has…they think we are [an] old banana republic.” Addressing the conditions for the F-35 sale, Sajwani stated that “no one can dictate us on our sovereignty…no one!”
  
  
• Prominent Emirati academic Abdulkhaleq Abdulla argued that the UAE has expressed its sovereignty in an important manner as it “sets a precedent by raising a ‘red card’ in Washington’s face, saying ‘no’; this is not the first ‘no’, and it may neither be the UAE’s last ‘no’ to the US.”

The context/analysis: The 23B USD UAE-US arms deal was signed in the final days of the former administration of president Donald Trump (2017-21).

• The Trump administration is believed to have approved the F-35 sale as an implicit quid pro quo following the UAE’s normalization of ties with Israel in Aug. 2020.
  
  
• The former US government approved the deal in January this year, arguing that it “supported US foreign policy and national security objectives by allowing the UAE to deter Iranian ‘threats.’”
  
  
• Israel already possesses F-35 aircraft as part of the QME it maintains with US support. The QME is upheld by a 2008 US legal requirement that prevents the sale of any American military technology to Middle East security partners that could put Israel at a military disadvantage.

Importantly, the UAE-US arms deal was signed in the context of a perceived US withdrawal from the region among Gulf Arab states. This sense has been accentuated by the Joe Biden administration’s chaotic exit from Afghanistan. Accordingly, the UAE and other Gulf states are looking elsewhere to fill the security vacuum possibly created by any further US retreat.

• As Amwaj.media has previously reported, Saudi Arabia recently signed a defense partnership with Russia. The UAE and other Gulf states have also formed economic and security partnerships with China—a move that has raised concerns within the Biden administration. For instance, US pressure is reported to have persuaded the UAE to scrap a planned Chinese military facility near Abu Dhabi.
  
  
• Despite assurances about the viability of the UAE-US military partnership, Abu Dhabi moved to buy 80 Rafale fighter jets from France during President Emmanuel Macron’s recent tour of the Gulf Arab states.
  
  
• While the Rafale jets are meant to complement Abu Dhabi’s F-35 order, the Emiratis could use the French aircraft as leverage to drop certain “usage restrictions” in future arms negotiations with the United States.

Meanwhile, even though Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett recently concluded a historic visit to the UAE, it seems that concerns remain over Israel’s QME given the F-35 deal between Washington and Abu Dhabi.

• Despite shared Emirati-Israeli fears of a nuclear Iran, the two governments have adopted different approaches. The UAE has publicly opened dialogue with Iran, which indicates a pragmatic and cautious approach to reach a diplomatic solution to the Iranian nuclear crisis.
  
  
• The Israeli government has threatened military action against Iran over its nuclear program. In this context, Tel Aviv could view the Emirati-Iranian rapprochement as a security threat, possibly reviving reported Israeli reservations about the UAE’s F-35 acquisition.

The future: The UAE will likely employ its partnerships with other arms-exporting states to leverage a better deal with the United States.

• If the F-35 sale proceeds, the Emiratis will likely negotiate an earlier delivery date. Part of the reason for the UAE’s withdrawal from the negotiations was reportedly due to a projected 2027 delivery date.
  
  
• The UAE will likely attempt to benefit from the China-US rivalry by playing the two global powers against each other. Washington wants assurances that the UAE will not share US defense technology with other countries. Valuing the partnership, it seems likely that the UAE will curtail the extent of its collaboration with China.