In exit interview, Rouhani says Raisi won't reach deal with the US

The story: In his final interview before leaving office, Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani has warned that his successor Ebrahim Raisi will not reach a deal with the US either if a key piece of legislation remains in effect.

Separately, a controversial video has emerged of late former president Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani—Rouhani’s mentor—quoting Iran’s supreme leader as strongly opposing a normalization of ties with the US, and declaring that he himself will “answer before God” for any damaging consequences of such a stance.

The coverage: In an interview on Aug. 2, outgoing moderate President Rouhani described a law passed by parliament in Dec. 2020 as one of the main obstacles in the way of the revival of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). The law has compelled the government to adopt a series of escalatory nuclear-related steps in the absence of a US re-entry into the Iran nuclear deal. The Raisi administration will thus also be dutybound to implement it.

The JCPOA was reached between Iran and the P5+1 (The US, UK, France, Russia, China, and Germany) in 2015, putting limitations on Tehran’s nuclear activities in return for sanctions relief. In 2018, then US president Donald Trump unilaterally withdrew from the deal and reimposed all sanctions. Iran and the US have in past months been engaged in indirect talks in Vienna to revive the JCPOA.

Rouhani also charged that the Dec. 2020 law demands that all US sanctions be lifted. The latter includes sanctions over issues such as Iran’s human rights record, alleged support for terrorism and ballistic missile program. In this vein, Rouhani continued, “Yes, we can lift all these sanctions, but it requires another negotiation and another opportunity at another time.”

The outgoing president warned that the administration of conservative Ebrahim Raisi will not be able to reach a deal with the US either because of the Dec. 2020 law.

Meanwhile, the museum of late two-time president Rafsanjani (1989-97) on Aug. 2 published a short video of him revealing details of his disagreement with Ayatollah Khamenei over the normalization of ties with the US.

In the clip, Rafsanjani states that Rouhani—as one of his advisors in the 1990s—believed that the differences between Tehran and Washington must be resolved, and therefore had written a report about the costs and benefits of restoring ties with the US.

The former president then noted that he added some points to the report and submitted it to Khamenei, leading to a two-hour discussion. Rafsanjani went on to say that the two did not reach an agreement, but that he had asked Khamenei to be allowed to assume responsibility on Judgement Day for all the “damage to Islamic society” as a result of a lack of ties with the US. The supreme leader is said to have responded, “I will answer for this before God myself.”

The context/analysis: The publication of the Aug. 2 video comes one day after Khamenei’s office released a short clip entitled “A lesson for the future,” in which Rafsanjani was criticized for seeking engagement with the US. As Amwaj.media reported at the time, the late former president was also portrayed as declaring that he had no response to Khamenei’s arguments against re-establishing relations with Washington.

Importantly, the Aug. 1 video put out by the supreme leader’s office featured a scene in which Khamenei mocks the report prepared by Rouhani on the costs and benefits of normalizing ties with the US, saying that “it did not list any costs.” The clip ominously ends with the supreme leader’s remark in his final July 28 meeting with the Rouhani cabinet that “in this administration, it became clear that trusting the west doesn’t work.”

The emphasis on avoiding normalization with the US comes as Iran is in the grip of a power transition that has granted the conservatives all of its three branches of government.

Rafsanjani and Rouhani have long been considered as the most influential and vocal supporters of normalization of ties with the US. Rafsanjani, who was known as a pillar of the 1979 Islamic revolution, wrote a secret letter to Islamic Republic founder Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini before his death in 1989, urging him to resolve seven important issues—including the state of relations with the US. Rafsanjani added that Khomeini did not resolve some of these seven issues before his passing.

Under Ayatollah Khamenei’s leadership (1989-), hostility towards the US has been strengthened as a key theme of Iranian foreign policy, making de-escalation with Washington further difficult.

The future: The future of the Iran-US relationship appears to rely on the revival of the JCPOA. If the deal comes back to life as a result of Tehran and Washington putting away their maximalist demands at the negotiating table, then the path will be paved for more talks.

Of note, Khamenei has not banned any engagement with the US but has rather reprimanded the outgoing Rouhani administration for “trusting the US.” Such sentiments indicate that Raisi, who has openly declared that he will follow the policies outlined by the supreme leader, will likely adopt a tougher position against the US.

Short of abandoning the concept of engagement with Washington under his successor altogether, Rouhani's remarks in his exit interview signal that Raisi must either bypass parliament's Dec. 2020 law in order for talks on the JCPOA to succeed—or agree to enter comprehensive talks with the US, which would include matters such as regional issues.