The Ukraine Crisis and Asia

This quick take is part of our Crisis Crossroads series, which highlights timely analysis by CSIS scholars on the evolving situation in Ukraine and its security, economic, energy, and humanitarian effects.

In Asia, Vladimir Putin’s war on Ukraine turned all eyes first to Taiwan. The example of a large authoritarian power trying to use brute force to absorb a free people against their will, animated by historical grievances and a desire to discredit U.S. alliances, is painfully close to what many on Taiwan fear could be Xi Jinping’s intentions for them. Indeed, Taiwan is already under constant “gray zone” attack in cyberspace and in the air over the Taiwan Strait, and President Tsai Ing-wen had to quickly rally her people in support of Ukraine and to demonstrate resolve to defend Taiwan’s own democracy. President Biden has sent a delegation of former officials (including me) to underscore U.S. support under the Taiwan Relations Act, but Taipei will also have to take note of the importance of asymmetrical defenses such as survivable strike weapons and a ready national reserve to raise the risks to Beijing of full invasion. Japan has stepped forward with tough sanctions to show Beijing that use of force against neighboring states will lead to a global consolidation of alliances and punishing economic countermeasures. This is a real contrast to Japan’s response to the annexation of Crimea when Prime Minister Abe Shinzo was trying to maintain good ties with Putin to have a “Russia Card” to use against Beijing. Xi and Putin’s joint statement from their summit before the Olympics killed that idea. Australia and Singapore have been unusually tough as well, taking a global perspective, but other ASEAN states have waffled, and South Korea has been distracted by election campaigning. The bottom line, for now, is that the global alignment of major democracies and the imposition of crippling sanctions have sent the right message to Beijing. If Putin fails or pays an unacceptably high price for aggression, diplomacy will become easier in Asia. But if he endures that pain and subjugates Ukraine, then North Korea will feel emboldened, and the debate sparked in China about the danger of facing a united democratic world could dissipate. Some in Washington have called for an “Asia First” policy to ignore Ukraine and focus on China, but this would be folly. In many respects, the next chapter in Asia is being written now on the streets of Kyiv.

Michael J. Green is senior vice president for Asia, Japan Chair, and Henry A. Kissinger Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies and director of Asian Studies at the Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University.

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