Exclusive: Iran-Saudi dialogue in Iraq paused ‘until new Iraqi government formed’

The story: The dialogue between Iran and Saudi Arabia in Baghdad has been temporarily paused pending a resolution to the domestic political stalemate in Iraq, Amwaj.media has learned. Speaking on condition of anonymity, informed sources have emphasized that the stalling of an anticipated fifth round of talks in the Iraqi capital this year is extraneous to the Iranian-Saudi engagement itself, hinting that the negotiations will resume once a new Iraqi government has been formed.

• Sources have also told Amwaj.media that Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud (MbS) sent a message to conservative Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi following his inauguration in August.
 
• MbS is said to have sent the message through an Iraqi interlocutor, thanking Raisi for his remarks in favor of regional engagement at his Aug. 5 swearing-in ceremony. The Saudi crown prince is also claimed to have signaled that he values the new Iranian president’s approach.

Importantly, sources have additionally told Amwaj.media that the Saudi royal’s message to the conservative Iranian cleric contained hints of a possible future jump in economic ties.

• However, any shift in the currently depressed commercial relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia hinges on not just a normalization of ties, but also the lifting of US extraterritorial sanctions. The latter in turn requires a revival of the 2015 Iran nuclear deal.
 
• Given that a resolution to the standoff over the nuclear deal and an associated lifting of US sanctions appears remote, the materialization of the alleged Saudi carrot appears difficult to foresee.

Yet the claim of a Saudi openness to possibly reviving economic ties with Iran down the line is notable mindful of recent remarks by US Special Envoy for Iran Robert Malley.

• Malley stated on Oct. 25, “Iran has a choice between two alternative paths ahead…Iran and the United States and the other parties…[can] find practical, pragmatic solutions…and the US would lift the economic sanctions that are inconsistent with the [nuclear] agreement,” referring to the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).
 
• Having returned from a tour of Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, Malley notably further underscored that the first path “would also allow countries in the region to develop closer ties economically with Iran…and that was one of the goals that we heard GCC [Gulf Cooperation  Council] countries had. But they also said that they could not do this as long as Iran was not back in the JCPOA.”

Iran and the US are set to resume their indirect talks in Vienna on a revival of the nuclear deal later this month. The previous round of diplomatic talks in the Austrian capital was held on June 20, two days after the election of Raisi.

The backdrop: As Amwaj.media has previously reported, a roadmap is said to have been discussed between Iran and Saudi Arabia during their previous fourth round of talks in the Iraqi capital in late September.

• At the time, an informed Iraqi source stated that “both sides were very positive.” He added, “They agreed on several proposals on bilateral issues….[and] and they were positive about regional issues.”

While the Iranian-Saudi engagement began towards the end of moderate former Iranian president Hassan Rouhani’s second term in office (2013-21), Raisi has been vocal in backing dialogue with Riyadh. Following his election on June 18, the former Iranian chief justice almost immediately signaled that his conservative government would welcome a transformation in relations with rival Saudi Arabia.

• At a press conference held three days after his election, Raisi notably strongly welcomed a normalization of ties with Riyadh. Saudi Arabia cut ties in Jan. 2016 following the storming of its diplomatic facilities in Iran by protesters who were outraged by the execution of dissident Saudi Shiite cleric Sheikh Nimr Al-Nimr. Of note, Nimr’s nephew, Ali Al-Nimr, was freed last week after having been sentenced to execution and jailed by Saudi authorities for years.
 
• Raisi stated on June 21, “Our priority will be relations with our neighbors, and in relation to Saudi Arabia, there is no obstacle on the part of the Islamic Republic to the reopening of embassies…and I emphasize once again that there are no obstacles on the part of the Islamic Republic to relations and dialogue with Saudi Arabia and all countries in the region."

At his Aug. 5 swearing-in ceremony at the Iranian parliament, Raisi echoed the conciliatory messaging, underscoring that the Islamic Republic seeks inclusive dialogue.

• "Iran's regional capacities support peace and stability…and will be used only to counter the threat of domineering and oppressive powers. The crises of the region must be resolved through real intra-regional dialogue and on the basis of ensuring the rights of nations.”
 
• Pointing to the “interference” of outside powers as not only failing to solve any issues but rather being a core problem itself, Raisi added, "I extend a hand of friendship and brotherhood to all countries in the region, especially neighbors, and I warmly shake their hands."
 
• Underlining the importance of trade and investment in fostering better ties, the new Iranian president elaborated, "We consider the promotion of relations with neighboring countries as the most important and main priority of our foreign policy and we favor their dignity and excellence. Diplomacy must strengthen the bonds among nations of the region and strengthen their common grounds in the fields of economy, culture, science and technology.”

The future: If there is an end to the political stalemate in Baghdad following Iraq’s disputed Oct. 10 parliamentary elections, Iranian and Saudi officials can be expected to hold at least one more session before the end of 2021. Of further note, and as Amwaj.media has previously reported, the dialogue might not be limited to one location.

Crucially, while Iraq’s Prime Minister Mustafa Al-Kadhimi has been closely involved in promoting and hosting the Iranian-Saudi engagement, informed sources have indicated that the dialogue is not dependent on Kadhimi remaining in office. Having said that, the incumbent premier is widely believed to be on a trajectory to remain in office.