Russia’s campaign of intimidation against Ukraine and the West has reached a climax.
Moscow will either invade within days, or the threat will recede—until the next time Vladimir Putin thinks there is an advantage to be had.
Either way, we now have enough evidence of how the Biden administration has comported itself to offer a preliminary assessment of its performance.
It has performed well.
President Biden takes the oath of office. Biden's handling of the Ukraine crisis has exhibited ... [+]
Within the geopolitical and military constraints that limit Washington’s options, President Biden and his security team have exhibited a clear sense of purpose, a willingness to act decisively, and a good deal of imagination in addressing the Russian threat.
Much of the criticism leveled against the president has exhibited either reflexive partisanship (Fox News being the most obvious example) or a shallow grasp of the geopolitical realities.
Meanwhile, the Biden administration has persevered in preparing the diplomatic battlefield for whatever comes next.
Here are several ways in which Biden and his team have demonstrated superior wisdom in dealing with a danger for which the West has what are at best only limited solutions.
Biden has recognized the limits of intervention. Russia has over a thousand nuclear warheads aimed at America, and many more available for use locally in Europe. The United States and its NATO allies have no formal defense commitments to Ukraine. Russia has huge tactical advantages in being able wage war against a weak country with which it shares a common border.
Given these circumstances, President Biden has made the intelligent decision to avoid overblown rhetoric and acknowledge that the West will not fight to defend Ukraine. The danger is too great, and the likelihood of popular support in Western nations for military action is too remote. The president has instead summoned all the other tools at his disposal to make Russia pay dearly if it launches an invasion.
Biden has coordinated closely with NATO allies to form a united front. President Biden pledged during his election campaign to rebuild the Western Alliance, and Putin’s threats have helped him to follow through on that pledge at an accelerated pace. Biden’s security team has worked tirelessly to build NATO solidarity in the face of Russian aggression.
NATO has 30 member nations and a consensus-based decision process, so finding common ground on any issue is not easy. However, Biden has honored the alliance’s traditions in working through available coordinating mechanisms to forge unity on Ukraine without being overbearing.
Biden has moved troops forward to reassure frontline allies. Working with key allies, the United States has shifted forces to reassure the NATO countries who feel most threatened by Russia’s military buildup on the border. The countries with the greatest reason to feel endangered are Poland, Romania and the three Baltic states. Each has received special attention during the current crisis beyond steps already taken in the aftermath of Russia’s 2014 seizure of Crimea.
Biden has been careful not to specify all the military steps the alliance might take if Russia invades, although U.S. sale of fighters and tanks to countries like Poland now looks to be a foregone conclusion. The movement of U.S. troops from America to Europe and within Europe sends a clear signal to Putin that he is hastening precisely the outcome he wishes to avoid: a strengthening of alliance forces on his borders. The troop movements thus both reassure countries to which Washington has security commitments and serve as a warning to Moscow about the likely fallout from any aggression.
Biden has refused to make concessions that might signal weakness. Some critics have labeled Biden an “appeaser,” but his behavior to date with regard to Ukraine conveys the exact opposite impression. The president has resolutely refused to satisfy any of the demands Putin is making in return for standing down. Biden presumably fears that any sign of weakness would simply lead to new demands.
So even though Ukraine was never likely to be welcomed into NATO, Biden and his team have consistently said that the possibility of membership will not be withdrawn. Furthermore, Biden’s team has rejected Moscow’s demands that the West forego security investments in former Soviet republics or pull back forces deployed to countries that once were Soviet satellites.
Personally, I thought Biden would make concessions to defuse the crisis, but the president turns out to have more of a backbone than I expected.
Biden has been transparent in his use of intelligence. Without disclosing sources and methods, Biden’s team has been unusually forthcoming on revealing what Western intelligence indicates about Russian moves. This has helped to build solidarity within the alliance while depriving Moscow of any element of surprise in an invasion.
Some, including Ukrainian President Zelensky, have accused Washington of being too alarmist in its assessment of what the intelligence indicates. But there is little doubt that Biden & Co. are accurately reflecting the findings of intelligence analysts, and that the U.S. is tracking every Russian move.
Biden has used intelligence skillfully to undercut Moscow’s propaganda. In an effort to justify an invasion of Ukraine, Russian sources have sought to depict Ukraine as an aggressive and illegitimate state. One tactic used repeatedly by Hitler and other dictators to rationalize aggression has been to fabricate provocations in which the victim state was made to look like an initiator of violence.
Biden’s security team has discredited such “false flag” projects before they could be mounted by publicizing Russian efforts to mislead the world. By employing intelligence to warn of Moscow’s planned misinformation campaign, the administration has assured any aggression will be the focus of global condemnation.
Biden has leveraged Western economic strength to deter invasion. Biden and his representatives have repeatedly warned Putin that any invasion will be followed by the harshest economic sanctions Russia has ever experienced. Although Moscow is already subject to sanctions for a variety of reasons, the sanctions now being contemplated could cripple the Russian economy, which relies largely on oil and gas exports to stay afloat.
President Biden thus is relying on the kind of diplomatic and economic tools that he said during the presidential campaign could supplement or replace military force in containing some international threats. These turn out to be the best options Washington has in situations where military force is not a viable solution, and Biden looks poised to take sanctions to a whole new level of severity.
Biden has assembled an experienced security team that tells a convincing story. The Biden security team is an unusually close and experienced collection of professionals, all of whom have worked with Biden for a long time. This makes their public pronouncements on Ukraine more coherent and credible than would have been the case with the revolving door of security advisors who surrounded President Trump.
Secretary of State Antony Blinken and National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan have proven to be articulate proponents of administration policy, while Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin has exceptional credentials as a warfighter. These individuals come across as focused and forceful proponents of a carefully thought-through approach to the current danger, which bolsters President Biden’s credibility at home and abroad.
