The Turbulent World with James M. Dorsey

Israel’s throttling of aid for Gaza is as much about weaponizing food and other essential goods as it is about eventually installing a post-war Palestinian administration empathetic to Israeli concerns. Similarly, Israel’s refusal to end the war intends to create space for an alternative to Hamas to emerge as the group’s popularity in Gaza hits rock bottom. So is Israel’s sidelining of the United Nations, despite its decades of experience in delivering aid to Gaza and extensive infrastructure in the Strip. An outspoken Palestinian American Hamas critic who lost 33 relatives in the Gaza war, Ahmed Fouad Alkhatib, believes that Israel is following the example of the United States in Iraq, where it funded and trained Awakening Councils to counter Al-Qaeda.

Critics have long argued that Israel’s 58-year-long occupation of Palestinian lands conquered in the 1967 Middle East war has brutalised Israeli society. Israel’s 20-month-old assault on Gaza and the Israeli public’s attitudes towards Gazan Palestinians serve as Exhibit A of the degree of brutalisation. So does last week’s pummelling of two Palestinian public bus drivers by militantly racist fans of soccer club Beitar Jerusalem, a far-right darling, after a Palestinian soccer player, Zaki Ahmed, secured the 2025 Israel State Cup title for his team, Hapoel Be'er Sheva.

President Trump's Gulf Yatla-Indian Futures 26052025 by James M. Dorsey

The Trump and Netanyahu administrations may diverge on immediate issues, including Iran, Gaza, and Syria, but are weighing a long-term strategy to strengthen Israel militarily while making it less dependent on the United States.

This week, Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu accelerated the Jewish state’s travels towards international pariah status by declaring that the Gaza war aims to expel Gazan Palestinians from their homeland. Mr. Netanyahu added resettlement of Gaza’s 2.1 million Palestinians to his war goals after earlier adopting as official Israeli policy a plan to move Gazans out of the Strip first put forward by US President Donald J. Trump in February. Earlier, Mr. Netanyahu insisted that he would only end the Gaza war once the Israeli military has destroyed Hamas or if the group agrees to disarm and send its leadership and fighters into exile. By making Mr. Trump’s plan a war goal Mr. Netanyahu has officially changed the nature of the century-old Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Mr. Trump’s plan envisions Palestinians being resettled in Egypt, Jordan, and elsewhere so that Gaza could be turned into a high-end real estate development. The international community has virtually unanimously condemned his plan. Many charge that it would amount to ethnic cleansing and violate international law.

European members of the world soccer body FIFA staged a dramatic walkout at the world governing body’s congress in Paraguay when President Gianni Infantino arrived late earlier this month. The Europeans accused Mr. Infantino of prioritising his personal political interests by attributing greater importance to meetings with US President Donald J. Trump in Qatar, the host of the 2022 World Cup, than to FIFA’s highest decision-making body. Mr. Infantino was part of Mr. Trump's extended entourage on the president's three-nation Gulf tour, which also included visits to Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. With their walkout, the Europeans highlighted a core problem with global sports governance that has dogged FIFA, the International Olympic Committee, and virtually all other global, regional, and national sports associations for decades: the insistence on the fiction that sports and politics are separate.

The winds didn’t just blow hot when Donald J. Trump recently touched down in Qatar on the first visit ever to the Gulf state by a sitting US president, which generated deals worth US$s1.2 trillion. They also blew cold, chilled by a long-standing, Israel-inspired campaign aimed to sully Qatar’s reputation.

Donald J. Trump and the American economy are two beneficiaries of the president’s Gulf road show. So are the Gulf states, Syria, and Make America Great Again supporters within Mr. Trump’s administration. In less than 24 hours in the kingdom, Mr. Trump received a standing ovation from Arab leaders and hundreds of thousands poured into the streets of Syrian towns and cities to celebrate his lifting of long-standing crippling sanctions—a rare achievement for an American president. On the surface, Syrians, Saudis, and Israel critics have much to celebrate, including Syrians’ prospects for reconstruction, Gulf states’ defense, technology, and aviation mega deals with the United States, and seemingly upgraded Gulf relations with the US that potentially put them more on par with Israel. Even so, Mr. Trump has yet to pass the litmus test on whether, how much, and what history he wrote on his Gulf tour, packaged in pomp and circumstance.

Syria could be the Middle East’s next exploding powder keg.

Alarm bells went off in Jerusalem and pro-Israel circles in Washington when US President Donald J. Trump this week announced a truce in America’s Red Sea tanker war with Yemen’s Houthi rebels that failed to take Israeli interests into account. Mr. Trump’s announcement of a deal that protects US assets and international shipping but leaves space for continued Houthi targeting of Israel suggested that the president and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu differed on multiple issues, including Yemen, Gaza, and Iran.

US President Donald J. Trump and Hamas have separately opened a Pandora’s Box that could fuel Middle Eastern fires for years to come. Hamas did so when it unleashed Israel’s assault on Gaza with its October 7, 2023, attack on Israel that killed some 1,200 people, mostly civilians. With more than 50,000 dead and tens of thousands wounded and/or maimed for life, Palestinians have paid a stark price. Israel’s assault has devastated the Strip and opened the door to Israeli reoccupation 20 years after the Jewish state withdrew its forces from the territory. Mr. Trump played his part when he called in February during Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu’s first visit to Washington this year for resettling Gaza’s 2.3 million Palestinians elsewhere and turning the Strip into a high-end luxury real estate development. In doing so, Mr. Trump allowed Israel to adopt a plan long envisioned by ultra-nationalists but not the general public as its official policy. Now, the Pandora’s Box could come home to haunt Mr. Trump as he prepares to visit the Gulf next week.

Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu’s embrace of the global far-right faces a difficult choice. The question for Mr. Netanyahu is whether to maintain Israel’s boycott of Germany’s Alternative for Germany (AfD), the country’s second-largest political party, and Austria’s Freedom Party (FPÖ) amid an escalating feud between the Trump administration and Germany over attitudes toward the far right.

Algeria may be the latest target in efforts to garner further Arab recognition of the Jewish state, despite its Gaza war conduct and rejection of Palestinian national aspirations. To that end, a Philadelphia-based far-right pro-Israeli organisation, the Middle East Forum, has put Algeria in its crosshairs in an apparent attempt to build pressure on the North African state to establish diplomatic relations with Israel. Algeria would be a prize catch.

Netanyahu hardens his position despite pressure to lift the Gaza blockade by James M. Dorsey

The coming days will tell whether it’s crunch time for Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu. The litmus test will be whether US President Donald J. Trump forces Mr. Netanyahu to lift his almost two-months-long blocking of the flow of humanitarian aid into war-ravaged Gaza.

Betar, the far-right youth movement of Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu’s Likud party, is happy to help US President Donald J. Trump curtail pro-Palestinian speech and academic freedoms. That has mainstream American Jews fear that the Trump administration’s crackdown on democratic freedoms of speech, assembly, and academia will fuel anti-Semitism rather than enhance their security.

This week’s Gazan anti-Hamas protests demanding an end to the war could prove to be a double-edged sword. There is no doubt that Gazans want to see an end to the further devastation of their already war-ravaged Strip, the killing of more than 50,000 primarily civilian Palestinians, and Israel’s blocking of the flow of humanitarian aid into Gaza, including food and medical supplies. Similarly, there is little doubt that Hamas’s popularity in Gaza has hit rock bottom, which is not to say that Gazans absolve Israel, the United States, and the international community of responsibility for their desperate plight or oppose armed resistance against occupation. A mere six per cent of Gazans polled in January by the Palestine-based Institute for Social and Economic Progress wanted to see Hamas in power once the war ended. Only 5.3 per cent would vote for Hamas in an election.

Hamas has Israel where it wants it. The group’s insistence that ending the war be part of any ceasefire deal and refusal to disarm strengthens its position. To be sure, Israel has severely weakened Hamas militarily. To be sure, Israel has severely weakened Hamas militarily. Moreover, Hamas barely scores double digits in Gaza opinion polls. Hamas may no longer be able to organize an attack on the scale of its October 7, 2023, assault on Israel in which some 1,200 people, mostly civilians, were killed. Even so, Hamas still has a de facto presence in much of Gaza. Moreover, based on-19th century Prussian general Carl von Clausewitz’s principle of “war as a continuation of politics by other means," Hamas is scoring points in what amounts to a war of attrition as Israel relentlessly batters the Strip.

As he embarked on a Middle East tour, Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto this week offered to accept an estimated 1,000 wounded Gazan Palestinians and “traumatised, orphaned children.” Mr. Prabowo, the leader of the Muslim world’s most populous country and democracy, was careful to limit those that would qualify to Palestinians in medical or psychological need and to insist that Indonesia would host the evacuees until they have fully recovered from their injuries and the situation in Gaza was safe for their return. He said the evacuations would be coordinated with the West Bank-based, internationally recognised Palestine Authority.

Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu’s multi-pronged strategy to crush the Palestinian resistance to Israeli occupation by destroying Hamas is doomed to failure with or without the potential expulsion or departure of Gazans. Eighteen months into the Gaza war, Israel has failed to dislodge Hamas, militarily free hostages held by the group, stop it from firing rockets at Israeli towns and cities, and halt Hamas’ smuggling of arms into the territory. “Hamas still maintains sovereignty in the Strip,” said reserve Major General Tamir Hayman, the executive director of Israel’s prestigious Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) and a former head of the Israeli military’s Intelligence Directorate.