Hello, it's lunchtime in Paris and far-right candidate Marine Le Pen (Le Rassemblement National) and the incumbent and centrist candidate Emmanuel Macron (La République En Marche) will take turns this evening on the set of TF1, France's main private TV channel. They will not debate together.
What happened yesterday? Far-right candidate Eric Zemmour (Reconquest!) said on Tuesday that the images of atrocities attributed to the Russian army in Ukraine should be taken with "caution."
Why does it matter? The Russian invasion of Ukraine has been a turning point in Mr. Zemmour's presidential campaign. He has fallen in the polls since the start of the war, weakened by his past pro-Russian statements. His inability to put the blame on the Russian troops only underlines his misstep.
With the frontrunner down and two underdogs up, the last Ipsos-Le Monde poll before the first round of the presidential election shows that the race is tightening. A month ago, Emmanuel Macron (La République en Marche) would have been re-elected in a landslide. At the time, he was benefitting greatly from the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The well-known rally around the flag effect propelled him far ahead of the rest of the other candidates, with 30.5% of the vote. The gap with his distant second - Le Rassemblement National candidate Marine Le Pen (14.5%) - was the largest since the first round of the 1969 presidential election.
A new situation is now emerging. The incumbent is still leading but with only 26.5% of the vote if the election were to take place right now. His far-right opponent is now just behind him (21.6%). Leftist candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon (La France Insoumise) also has the highest voting intentions so far for his campaign (16%), although the gap probably remains too big for him to qualify for the second round on April 10.
What happened? First, voters' concern about the war in Ukraine is slowly fading away. They continue to strongly trust (60%) President Macron for his handling of this international crisis, and an overwhelming majority supports maintaining (34%) or strengthening (53%) sanctions against Russia, which Marine Le Pen and Jean-Luc Mélenchon are opposed to. But Ukraine's importance in the electorial vote is diminishing. That's why the incumbent has returned to his January and February levels.
Second, strategic voting is bringing wind to the sails of his two main opponents. Ms. Le Pen is slowly burying Mr. Zemmour's last hopes, as she appears as the best chance for the nationalistic bloc. Mr. Mélenchon is also gaining steam at the expense of environmentalist Yannick Jadot (Europe Ecologie-Les Verts) and of the two far-left candidates, Trotskyists Philippe Poutou (Le Nouveau Parti Anticapitaliste) and Nathalie Arthaud (Lutte Ouvrière). Mr. Mélenchon's rise can also be attributed to a higher mobilization rate among young voters.
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