The latest in our series of charts, graphics and data visualisations by Chris McDowall. David Garcia worked with Chris to create today’s charts.

This work is entirely funded by the generosity of The Spinoff Members, with support from the Science Media Centre. 

These posts collate the most recent statistics and present them as charts and maps. The Ministry of Health typically publishes data updates in the early afternoon, which describe the situation at 9am on the day of release. These data visualisations are interactive so use your mouse or thumb to hover over each graph for more detail.

This afternoon’s Ministry of Health figures report that the total number of confirmed and probable Covid-19 cases dropped by one to 1,469 (1,122 confirmed and 347 probable). A total of 1,180 people have recovered, an increase of 38 since yesterday.

The reason the overall total dropped by one requires a little unpacking. There were, in fact, five new cases today – one confirmed and four probable. However, six previously probable cases were reclassified as “under investigation” or “not a case”. The net result of five new cases and the six reclassifications is a decrease by one.

Sadly, one death related to Covid-19 was reported today. A woman in her 90s has passed away in Waitākere hospital. She was a resident of St Margaret’s hospital and rest home and the third death from this cluster. This brings the number of Covid-19 related deaths in New Zealand to 19.

The number of significant clusters with 10 or more cases remains at 16. There are seven people in hospital, which is unchanged since yesterday. One of these people is in Middlemore’s intensive care unit.

Yesterday, 2,939 tests were processed. The ministry reported averaging 5,374 Covid-19 lab tests per day during the week ending 26 April. A total of 123,920 lab tests have been conducted since January 22. There are 69,258 test supplies in stock, down from 73,099 yesterday.

This chart compares active and recovered cases. Active cases are confirmed or probable cases of Covid-19 where the person has neither recovered nor died. Recovered cases are people who were once an active case, but are at least 10 days since onset and have not exhibited any symptoms for 48 hours.

The overall downward trend of active case counts that started around April 8 continues. Note how the blue curve is levelling off, while the purple bars continue to decline. This means there are very few new cases being reported while existing cases steadily recover.

The symbol map shows confirmed and probable Covid-19 cases arranged by district health board. In keeping with the relatively small number of new cases, there is minimal change in regional counts. Waitematā (up two to 222), Southern (no change at 216), Waikato (down six to 186) and Auckland (no change at 175) remain the four district health boards with the largest number of active cases.

Based on the overnight change in case counts, it appears that all or most of the six downgraded case statuses occurred in Waikato DHB.

There are 16 significant clusters under investigation by the Ministry of Health. The only change overnight was a new case associated with one of the aged residential care facilities in Auckland. The ministry has not released formal counts associating deceased persons with clusters. Instead, we compiled these numbers from ministry media releases about each case.

The chart highlights large differences between the clusters. For example, the Marist College cluster was one of the earliest and largest reported. Nearly everyone has recovered. In contrast, well over half the Rosewood aged residential home cases are still active and 10 people have sadly died.

This chart shows cases by the date they were first entered into EpiSurv, ESR’s public health surveillance system. Note that the number of cases reported on a particular date may not match the number of cases reported in the last 24 hours. This is because the number of confirmed and probable cases reported in the last 24 hours includes cases that were entered on an earlier date as “under investigation” or “suspected” whose status has now been changed to confirmed or probable.

As casual dealers retreat but both demand and prices surge, one surprising consequence of the lockdown could be the hastened professionalisation of the underground cannabis industry.

When New Zealand moved to alert level four, most people had no choice about whether to comply with the lockdown. But for New Zealand’s cannabis dealers, who were watching demand soar and are used to operating outside the law, the decision was more complicated. 

Due to the risks, most dealers are respecting the restrictions. A small minority, however, are continuing to operate and trying to adjust to a newly infectious world on the fly. In the process, they are hastening a previously gradual transition to a professionalised cannabis market.

For the majority of dealers, the hazards were too large to justify continuing to work. One former dealer pointed to the recent arrest of a man with 5kg of cannabis during a routine traffic stop. “It’s not like there’s a lot of cars on the road any more. There’s a good chance the cops will stop you… It’s really risky now. You’re either going to the supermarket or work, or you’re out selling drugs and doing illegal stuff.” 

According to another former dealer, the lockdown prompted fear about more assertive enforcement. “Level four gave police the ability to go into a house without a search warrant, and they were using that to get some of the big players. So everyone freaked out and there wasn’t really any activity at all.” 

Most dealers are casual operators who purchase from larger wholesalers and then on-sell to friends and acquaintances. For these small-time dealers, the logistical hurdles created by the lockdown are another challenge. Travel restrictions make it difficult to meet with wholesalers. When they can meet, according to a current dealer, many wholesalers are “being stingy. Some of them are really upping the price, so us small dealers are finding it hard to suss.” 

These casual operators’ withdrawal has disrupted the market. One regular customer explained that, “I have around three or four guys who always reply… I started off [lockdown] by texting them, and they all responded that they weren’t selling themselves during lockdown because of the risk.” Another complained that, “We contacted all our known dealers. And they all said, ‘We can’t.’ Either because they didn’t have enough or because they literally couldn’t get to us.”

While these casual dealers have retreated, demand has surged. Many cannabis users were unprepared for the alert level four announcement and left without enough to last the lockdown. Even users who had stocked up beforehand have found themselves using their supply faster while stuck at home. A third regular customer explained that “I’ve smoked more, because the nights I would be out at a mate’s place or doing something, I’m now at home. So I’ve been doing study during the day and then after dinner smoking weed to relax.”

With many people desperate to replenish their supply, prices have spiked. An ounce of cannabis typically costs $350 to $400. But those interviewed for this article reported enormous increases. According to one, “We paid at least $120 more than we usually do. A bit of a rip-off. But we kind of didn’t really care at that point.”

Professionalised dealers – who deal full-time, are deeply connected to supply networks, and often have few other employment options – have stepped in to exploit these opportunities. By continuing to operate, these dealers could easily help spread the virus. They nevertheless profess to care about preventing transmission. “The really important thing for me as a dealer is to make sure I’m not the one spreading the virus around to other people,” said one. “I have to really change my ways of selling, to both make my money and keep customers safe.” It’s not just compassion; few customers would be interested without being confident dealers were taking precautions. 

This professionalised minority of dealers typically organise their sales through an ecosystem of cannabis communities on online platforms like Discord. According to one dealer, “There’s multiple servers. They span from a couple of hundred [members], to a New Zealand-wide one with about 25,000.” Some servers chose to close after lockdown was announced. Most didn’t. And among those that did, some reopened after just a few weeks.

These servers are encrypted and invite-only. One former dealer explained the process. “I got invited, I had to refer my friend’s username, and send a picture to the servermaster of my Discord name, a photo ID as collateral but with everything scraped out in terms of details, and then a picture of paraphernalia to make sure you’re not fucking around.” Professional dealers’ preference for these relatively secure platforms, and the difficulty of purchasing cannabis from anyone else, is prompting a shift towards using them within the wider illicit cannabis economy. 

Having arranged a sale via Discord, these dealers are also using physical distancing and contactless delivery techniques similar to those the legal retail sector is planning to integrate. One current dealer explained his surprising system. “Right now, I’m putting [weed] in my lunchbox. I make sure when I handle cash, I hand sanitise my hands before and after. Same with my weed… I’d put my lunchbox outside my room door, they’d pick it up, put the money in, leave it, and then once I’m free I’ll grab it.” Others are distributing via letterboxes, where customers are instructed to leave money in advance. It’s a significant change, according to one customer. “Usually when we get [cannabis], our dealer will come in and chill out, have a bit of a sesh. But obviously that social aspect of it can’t happen any more.” 

Perhaps the lockdown’s most surprising consequence will be this hastened professionalisation of the underground cannabis industry. And, while the rest of the country eagerly awaits the move to alert level three, few in the industry expect the move will affect their new trajectory. According to one former dealer, “The traditional ‘go to your one person’ model, that’s over. Because you have such a broad variety [of services], through such a secure space. You’re not having to go and meet people any more, they’re coming to you.”