A failed impeachment attempt, a stable economy and a fractured field of Democratic candidates appear to have given President Donald Trump a boost in Pennsylvania as the presidential election race heats up.
A new Morning Call/Muhlenberg College poll shows Trump doing better against potential Democratic rivals than he did in a similar poll three months earlier, especially in potential matchups with former Vice President Joe Biden and Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren.
Only Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders maintained a slight lead over the president in hypothetical matchups. But even there, Trump gained ground.
Biden and Warren were tied with Trump, while South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg, Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar and former New York City Mayor Mike Bloomberg all were slightly behind the president. The gaps in those matchups all were within the poll’s margin of error of 5.5 percentage points.
“The race has tightened in the state and given its standing nationally, that is important for the Democrats … and for the president,” said Chris Borick, director of the Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion, which conducted the poll.
Sanders outpolled Trump, 49% to 46%, in the latest poll. In November, Sanders bested Trump 50% to 45%.
“Bernie Sanders seems to be marginally better positioned at this point,” Borick said of the Pennsylvania picture. “He has been able to benefit from his base in a way that maybe other people have not.”
Sanders’ support among progressives and young voters is significant, Borick said, but ? like Trump four years ago ? Sanders has a measure of appeal to some individuals “who are disenchanted with the political and economic systems.”
The biggest stumble against Trump in the new poll was by Biden, the national front-runner among Democrats for much of the previous year. In November, Biden had a 9-point lead against Trump in Pennsylvania, and the latest poll had them even at 47%.
In the hypothetical matchups, Warren also was tied with Trump at 47% each, after having a 5-percentage point lead on the president in November. Buttigieg was behind Trump 46% to 45%, Klobuchar trailed Trump 45% to 44%, and so did Bloomberg by a margin of 48% to 45%.
The economy helped Trump. Twenty-one percent of respondents ranked it as the most important issue in their choice of a presidential candidate, and 58% approved of Trump’s handling of the economy.
The poll involved 424 registered voters, including 47% who identified as Democrats and 40% who said they were Republicans, and was conducted Feb. 12-20. That was before the recent slide in stock markets triggered by the spread of the deadly coronavirus that threatens economies worldwide.
Borick said that while Trump’s handling of the economy was a bright spot for him, a sudden economic downturn could hurt him because he has few other issues where he polls well in Pennsylvania.
For example, on health care ? ranked the second-most important presidential issue by poll respondents ? 50% disapproved of Trump’s work, compared with 36% who approved.
Sanders has young vote
Sanders has taken a lead in the Democratic primary, after tallying wins in the earliest voting states and gaining in national polls.
Younger voters, as in other polls, give Sanders a big boost. Among poll respondents aged 18-29, Sanders won 61%, compared with 33% backing Trump. Among those ages 30-49, Sanders had 56% support to Trump’s 38%.
Trump topped Sanders by 14 points among voters 50-64, and by 7 points among those 65 and older.
Laura Jeu, a 24-year-old Democrat in Franklin County, decided on Sanders because of his Medicare for All health care plan.
“The fact that it would be universal is a big draw for me especially when compared to the way everything is currently run,” she said. “It’s kind of a disaster trying to decide if you can afford to live, essentially.”
Jeu, who voted for Libertarian Gary Johnson in 2016, said her second choice would be Warren, but she thinks Sanders has a stronger chance of beating Trump.
Similarly, 28-year-old Michal Schatz, a graduate student in Philadelphia, said that among people she knows, health care is the No. 1 issue and Sanders is best positioned on the issue. When Schatz got the phone call for the Muhlenberg poll, she was returning from New Hampshire where she volunteered for Sanders.
Trump’s strength with Pennsylvania voters, she said, might be influenced by the large field of Democratic candidates.
“People are confused about who to support. People thought the field would be more narrow,” Schatz said. “There are just too many candidates to pay attention to.”
The opposite opinion of Sanders was shared by Craig Emmons, who is 53 and lives in Tioga County.
“He says he is a Democratic socialist. C’mon. That is a prelude to something,” said Emmons, an independent who voted for the Republican candidate in the last three presidential elections. “He is un-American. He shouldn’t even be allowed to run for president.”
Impeachment boosts Trump
The latest poll made clear that Trump himself remains a key issue.
Half of respondents disapproved of Trump’s handling of his job, while 42% approved.
Asked whether Trump deserved to be reelected, 42% said he did, and 54% said he did not. In November, 42% said Trump deserved to be reelected while 57% said he did not.
Nearly half — 49% — said they approved of the Senate’s decision not to remove Trump from office during the impeachment trial, with 44% saying they disapproved of that acquittal vote.
Two-thirds of respondents said the impeachment process didn’t affect how they’ll vote for president in November. Of those who said it did affect their vote, it was more likely to be a boost for Trump: 22% said the impeachment proceedings made them more likely to vote for Trump, with 11% saying it made them less likely to back him.
Emmons described the group of Democratic candidates as “huffy-puffy blowhards.” His support of Trump, he said, was akin to his support of Ross Perot, an independent candidate for president in the 1990s.
“It is not business as usual,” Emmons said.
But for Christina Hammond, a 51-year-old Democrat from Philadelphia, Trump is not a possibility.
“He’s made a mockery out of our country,” she said. “He’s a disrespectful person. I don’t think he’s an appropriate person to have in leadership.”
But Hammond, who voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016, said she hasn’t committed to a Democratic candidate yet because no one has piqued her interest, although she plans to vote for whomever the nominee is in November.
Hammond would like to see improvements in a number of areas, such as health care and education, she said.
“For me, it’s more about the lower class and who can actually help people such as myself,” she said.
Deep divide on Trump
Kyle Hall, a 19-year-old Lancaster resident and a Democrat, said he was not sure who he would vote for in what would be his first presidential ballot.
But he said there was a “strong possibility” he votes for Trump.
“He’s done pretty well for our economy,” Hall said. “Honestly, the economy is all I really care about at this point.”
Out of all the candidates, Buttigieg is the only one he’s considering after watching the presidential debate in Las Vegas because he thought Buttigieg gave a strong performance.
Hall originally was leaning toward Andrew Yang until he dropped out of the race.
Although she is 82, Eleanor Englert of Whitehall, Allegheny County, said she had not voted in recent elections. But, she said, this year she might.
A Republican, Englert said she disliked Trump and liked Buttigieg.
“He is our president and he gets on TV and he doesn’t say nice things. He is always criticizing everybody,” she said of Trump. “When he gets on TV, I just get embarrassed.”
To change … or not
Christopher Kaczmarski is a 65-year-old Democrat living in Langhorne in Bucks County who also plans to vote for whoever the Democrat nominee is.
“Whoever is nominated, I would prefer them over Trump,” he said.
The poll’s hypothetical matchups of Trump against each of three leading Democrats showed similar trends in gender and education level.
For example, Trump got only 42% of women but 50% of men in a matchup with Sanders, while he got 42% of women and 53% of men in a matchup with Biden and 41% of women and 52% of men in a matchup with Warren.
In all three matchups, voters with college degrees preferred the Democratic challenger, while those with no college degree preferred Trump.
For Kaczmarski, universal health care and affordable college education are two big issues, which is why he likes Warren and Sanders. He also likes Buttigieg for his youth and energy.
But Kaczmarski, who voted for Clinton in 2016, worries that Buttigieg’s sexual orientation and Warren’s gender will dissuade others from voting for them. Kaczmarski also is concerned about Sanders’ electability as well with voters who are more moderate.
“He comes across as being like your crazy uncle at the dinner table,” he said. “He’s too far out there for the average middle class person who doesn’t want to rock the boat.”
Matt Johnson, a 37-year-old independent who lives near Reading, hasn’t decided if he’ll vote in November.
“They’re all jokes,” Johnson said of the candidates.
If Johnson, who did not vote in 2016, does vote, he sees himself voting for Trump just because of status quo.
“Nothing bad has happened in the last four years,” Johnson said. “Why fix something that isn’t broken?”
Morning Call reporter Ford Turner can be reached at 717-783-7305 or fturner@mcall.com
//assets.documentcloud.org/viewer/loader.js
DV.load(“https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/6788733-FULL-RESULTS-Morning-Call-Muhlenberg-College.js”, {
responsive: true,
text: false,
container: “#DV-viewer-6788733-FULL-RESULTS-Morning-Call-Muhlenberg-College”
});
FULL RESULTS: Morning Call-Muhlenberg College Pennsylvania presidential poll for February 2020 (PDF)
FULL RESULTS: Morning Call-Muhlenberg College Pennsylvania presidential poll for February 2020 (Text)
